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Crystal Chandler has big weekend plans.

She’s moving away from the Bay Area.

Chandler was the last contestant on my top-rated game show, “Who Can Really Afford to Rent in the Bay Area?” In August, all of the tenants in the 28-unit building on Parkside Drive in Concord where she lived were served 60-day eviction notices by new owners who want to renovate the place.

Chandler, a single mother of a 12-year-old girl, works as a full-time dental assistant. Chandler told me she earns about $2,600 a month, maybe $2,800 if the dental office is busier than usual, like during the holiday season when people are booking appointments to use their insurance benefits before they expire.

Chandler sometimes worked extra jobs to keep food on the table and afford the $1,200, two-bedroom apartment she lived in for seven years. She moved out of her apartment on Nov. 28.

She’s moving to Arizona on Saturday.

“I know it would be the best move for me and my child to go somewhere I don’t have to work three or four jobs just to survive and pay rent,” Chandler, 33, told me recently. “I know it needs to be done as a parent.”

A lot of people are leaving the Bay Area in search of cheaper housing. They’re being replaced by people with higher incomes, people who can afford to pay market rate for housing.

According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released March 22, the Bay Area lost about 46,000 people more than it gained during the year that ended July 1. Still, as my colleague Kathleen Pender pointed out, “net immigration — people coming from and leaving for other countries — is still positive in the Bay Area.”

“About 58,000 more people came here from abroad than left last year, surpassing the nearly 46,000 who decamped for other states,” she wrote.

Chandler and her daughter, Nevaeh Chappell, have been staying with a friend in Pittsburg. She waited to move so she didn’t leave her dental office understaffed. She also stuck around to work her annual shift at the New Year’s Eve party at the Regency Ballroom in San Francisco. She expects to make $700 to $1,000 at that job.

Before Christmas, I caught up with Chandler in Pittsburg. She picked me up from the BART station, and we went to Little J’s for burgers on Loveridge Road. There was a basketball game on the TV. Chandler was once a knock-down shooter, but her mother, a Jehovah’s Witness, didn’t allow her to play basketball in high school.

For her 13th birthday, Chandler got her ears pieced. Nevaeh, who turns 13 on Jan. 29, wants to dye her hair black.

The stress from getting evicted caused Nevaeh’s grades to drop, Chandler told me. Nevaeh searched for apartments on her phone.

“Mommy, we can live here,” Chandler recalled Nevaeh telling her.

As we ate, Nevaeh, who likes anime and wants to learn Japanese, showed me pictures of her impressive, hand-drawn sketches on her phone.

“Show him the eye one,” Chandler said.

Nevaeh also wants braces, but she’ll have to do a better job of brushing her teeth before going to sleep. Chandler makes her get out of bed if she hasn’t brushed her teeth.

“That happened to me two nights ago,” said Nevaeh, who drew a dramatic, glinting eye on my notepad as she watched a YouTube drawing tutorial on her phone.

Soon Nevaeh will be brushing her teeth in her third home in three months. Chandler, who was raised in Nebraska and moved to California when she was 25, will stay with a friend in Arizona until she finds her own place. She already has three job interviews scheduled.

She’s sad to leave.

Chandler’s apartment complex and an adjacent single-family home were purchased in July by PTLA Real Estate, a Walnut Creek investment and management company. In September, Peter Wilson, PTLA’s president, told me residents would have the opportunity to move back into the Parkside Drive complex once renovations are completed, but they’d have to qualify financially and pay a higher rent. He said a two-bedroom would cost $2,000.

That was more than Chandler could afford. Residents were also offered apartments at other properties owned by the company in addition to a $3,000 payout. Some residents accepted the offer, while others, including Chandler, negotiated a better settlement with the company.

“I was very upset in the way they handled things,” she said. “I was very vocal.”

Chandler was paid $5,000, and she was given two extra months to move out. She left a month early. Now she’s moving out of California.

“It’s bittersweet, because I’m leaving my job and leaving my friends, stuff that I’ve created for the last eight years,” Chandler said.

San Francisco Chronicle columnist Otis R. Taylor Jr. appears Mondays and Thursdays. Email: otaylor@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @otisrtaylorjr

Upcoming political events in the Bay Area.

TUESDAY

Oscar Grant: Vigil marking the 10th anniversary of fatal shooting of Oscar Grant by a BART police officer. Noon, Fruitvale BART station, 3401 East 12th St., Oakland. More information is here.

THURSDAY

S.F. Berniecrats: Membership meeting; topics include endorsement for California Democratic Party chair. 7 p.m., Park Branch Library, 1833 Page St., San Francisco. More information is here.

JAN. 7

Jackie Speier: Rep. Jackie Speier, D-San Mateo, discusses her new book, “Undaunted: Surviving Jonestown, Summoning Courage, and Fighting Back.” Free. 7 p.m., Copperfield’s Books, 140 Kentucky St., Petaluma. More information is here.

New Oakland council members: Inauguration celebration for new Oakland City Council members Nikki Fortunato Bas, Sheng Thao and Loren Taylor. Free. 5:30 p.m., Oakland Asian Cultural Center, 388 Ninth St., Oakland. More information is here.

JAN. 8

New S.F. supervisors: Inauguration celebration for new San Francisco Supervisors Shamann Walton, Gordon Mar and Matt Haney. Free. 6 p.m., Great American Music Hall, 859 O’Farrell St., San Francisco. More information is here.

JAN. 10

Basic income: Panel discussion on the limitations a guaranteed basic income as a response to poverty, unemployment and inequality. Free. Stanford Law School, Crown Building, Room 190, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford University. More information is here.

JAN. 11

Mike McGuire: State Sen. Mike McGuire, D-Healdsburg, discusses issues in the Legislature at a breakfast sponsored by the Marin Conservation League. $15 for members, $20 for nonmembers. 7:30 a.m., McInnis Park Golf Center, 350 Smith Ranch Road, San Rafael. More information is here.

JAN. 13

The ‘Forever War’: Journalist Peter Byrne on U.S. military strategy and its identification of much of the rest of the world as “the enemy.” Organized by Peace Action of San Mateo County. Contributions welcome. 7 p.m., Unitarian Universalists of San Mateo, 300 East Santa Inez Ave., San Mateo. More information is here.

JAN. 14

Nationalism: Political reporter and author John Judis discusses the underlying causes of the nationalist revolt and its global impact, at the Commonwealth Club. $20 for nonmembers, $8 for students. 6 p.m., 110 Embarcadero, San Francisco. More information is here.

Living off the land: Is it possible to live off the land, fully self-sufficient? A discussion with the general manager of Burning Man’s Fly Ranch. Free. 6:30 p.m., Manny’s, 3092 16th St., San Francisco. More information is here.

Gun violence in schools: A panel discussion with Professor Ron Avi Astor of the University of Southern California; Alisa Crovetti UC Berkeley Graduate School of Education; Alla Lefkowitz of Everytown for Gun Safety; and Emily Ozer of the UC Berkeley School of Public Health. Free. 11:30 a.m., Graduate School of Education, Room 1104, UC Berkeley. More information is here.

JAN. 15

Phil Ginsburg: San Francisco Recreation and Park General Manager Phil Ginsburg is featured in Manny’s Local Leaders series. Free. 6:30 p.m., 3092 16th St., San Francisco. More information is here.

JAN. 16

New citizen voting: Democracy Action volunteers will register new citizens to vote following swearing-in ceremonies. Two sessions, at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. Paramount Theatre, 2025 Broadway, Oakland. More information is here.

Elections and democracy in digital age: A panel discussion and question-and-answer session with members of the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age. Free. 5 p.m., Koret-Taube Conference Center, Gunn-SIEPR Building, 366 Galvez St., Stanford University. More information is here.

JAN. 19

Women’s Marches: Third annual San Francisco Women’s March and rally begins at 11 a.m. at Civic Center. More information is here. Marches will also be held in several other Bay Area cities; times and locations are here.

Libertarian convention: Libertarian Party of San Francisco holds its annual convention. Agenda includes activist training, speakers and socializing. Free. 1 p.m., ClickUp, 580 Howard St., Suite 101, San Francisco. More information is here.

Race and education: A panel discussion on the impact of race on education, sponsored by the African American Community Health Advisory Committee and the African American Library Advisory Committee. Free. 2 p.m., San Mateo Public Library, 55 West Third Ave. More information is here.

JAN. 21

Bringing the Noise: 22nd annual event Martin Luther King Jr. Day event featuring young poets and multidisciplinary artists who focus on justice issues. Free; advance registration recommended. 7 p.m., Nourse Theater, 275 Hayes St., San Francisco. More information is here.

MLK Day in Piedmont: Celebration features Oakland’s youth poet laureate, Leila Mottley; Black Sheroes of Young Gifted and Black; Oakland Jazz Workshops; Together We Slam of Piedmont High School; and Oakland Interfaith Youth Choir. Free. Noon, Piedmont Veterans Memorial Building, 401 Highland Ave., Piedmont. More information is here.

JAN. 24

Female Shariah judge: Screening of “The Judge,” a documentary about Kholoud Al-Faqih , the first woman to be appointed to the Middle East’s Shariah (Islamic law) courts. Benefit for Middle East Children’s Alliance. $15-$50. 7 p.m., Berkeley City College, 2050 Center St., Berkeley. More information is here.

JAN. 28

Feminist resistance in Brazil: A forum discussion with four feminist leaders of the resistance to the radical right in Brazil. Free. 4 p.m., 220 Stephens Hall, UC Berkeley. Registration and more information are here.

JAN. 29

We Rise Women: 2020 strategy session featuring Sister District co-founder Lala Wu, Lisa Bennett of Swing Left and Indivisible, Sarah Grewe of Sister District and Airlift.fund founder Danny Altman. 6 p.m. Zephyr Real Estate, 350 Bon Air Center, No. 100, Larkspur. More information is here.

Feminism in China: Journalist and author Leta Hong Fincher discusses the rise of feminism in China. Sponsored by the World Affairs Council. $20 for nonmembers, $7 for students. 6:30 p.m., 312 Sutter St., Suite 200, San Francisco. More information is here.

JAN. 30

Negotiating with terrorists: Joel Simon, author of “We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom,” discuss the conflicts and consequences of negotiating with terrorists and paying ransom, in a World Affairs Council event. $20 for nonmembers, $7 for students. 6:30 p.m., World Affairs Auditorium, 312 Sutter St., Suite 200, San Francisco. More information is here.

“Watergate” documentary: Screening of the film “Watergate” and an appearance by director Charles Ferguson. Sponsored by Center for Latin American Studies at UC Berkeley. Free. 7 p.m., Sibley Auditorium, Bechtel Engineering Center, UC Berkeley. More information is here.

JAN. 31

Carbon neutral: Can California go carbon neutral? A conversation with Mary Nichols, chair of the California Air Resources Board, and Greg Dalton of Climate One. $20 for non-Commonwealth Club members, $7 for students. 6:30 p.m. 110 Embarcadero, San Francisco. More information is here.

FEB. 6

Robert Reich: Writer, public policy professor and former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich discusses his new book, “The Common Good,” in a benefit for KPFA-FM. $12 advance tickets. First Congregational Church of Berkeley, 2345 Channing Way, Berkeley. More information is here.

To list an event, email Politics Editor Trapper Byrne at tbyrne@sfchronicle.com

Development of market-rate housing in San Francisco will slow to a trickle in 2019, because a combination of higher construction costs, escalating fees, a softening market and increased interest rates has persuaded many builders to wait on the sidelines, developers and industry analysts say.

Development “is not going to happen,” said Sean Keighran, president of the Residential Builders Association, which represents developers and contractors. “There are four strikes, and you only get three. It’s hard to foresee a rosy path forward.”

The median price of a single-family home in the city has fallen 15 percent from its peak of $1.7 million in February 2017, according to real estate brokerage Compass. While the median price of $1.44 million is still out of reach for most people, it’s enough to have a chilling effect.

“Nobody buys land and develops in a downward market,” Keighran said. “Our guys stopped buying sites a year and a half ago.”

Construction costs in San Francisco have more than doubled during the past five years — the average cost of building a new home in San Francisco is now more than $700,000. In addition, the minimum percentage of affordable housing units required in a development has jumped from 12 to 18 percent during that time. The Board of Supervisors will soon vote on whether to increase that requirement to at least 19 percent.

Mark Conroe, a managing partner with Presidio Development Partners, recently completed a 28-unit condominium project at 1598 Bay St. in the Marina district and is building a 160-unit rental building at 1699 Market St. But he said he has no plans to jump into any new projects.

“There are a couple of cracks in the dam,” he said. “Brokers will tell you, if they are being honest, that the market changed at the beginning of the summer. There is no question the condo market is going down.”

Plenty of developers are looking to sell sites where projects have been approved but construction has not started, he added.

“I question why anyone would start construction now,” Conroe said. “Before, you had to track down sites. Now, the seller tracks you down. My response is always the same: I am not a buyer. Revenues are going down and costs are going up.”

While groundbreakings will be rare in 2019, plenty of new units will hit the market next year because many of them were started about two years ago. The city expects that about 4,700 units will be completed in 2019, more than twice the 1,900 a year the city has averaged since 1990, and almost as many as the roughly 4,900 units that opened in 2016, the most productive year in recent history. About 2,300 homes in multifamily buildings were completed in 2018.

The biggest project opening in 2019 will be UCSF Housing at the Tidelands, on Minnesota Street at the northern edge of Dogpatch. The development is scheduled to open next summer and will allow the university to house an additional 708 students and medical interns, reflecting a 77 percent increase in its housing inventory, said Leslie Santos, executive director for housing services at UCSF.

“The cost of living in San Francisco continues to be a substantial part of the cost of education,” Santos said. “Being able to provide more housing, conveniently located near our campus at below-market rates, will be of significant benefit to UCSF’s recruitment.”

The next-largest project to open next year will be Avery 450, at 450 Folsom St. near the Transbay Transit Center. That complex — a 548-unit, 56-story tower — will have a bit of everything: 118 high-end condos, 280 market-rate rentals, and 150 affordable units, most of which are financed with public money.

Jonathan Shum, a vice president for developer Related California, said the first residents will move into Avery 450 in early summer.

Related California is also set to complete 1601 Mariposa, a 299-unit development in Potrero Hill. The project, which overlooks Jackson Park, will have three buildings, 10,000 square feet of retail, and a walkway from Mariposa Street to 18th Street, according to Gino Canori, the company’s chief development officer.

While rental complexes already in the pipeline will continue to open next year, new condo buildings will be scarce. Miles Garber, director of research for condominium marketing firm Polaris Pacific, said only 314 new condos will hit the market in 2019, compared with about 1,000 in 2018, 584 in 2017 and 1,427 in 2016. The average over the last decade has been about 800 units a year.

While middle-market projects are stalled, towers at the higher end of the price spectrum are still feasible, he said.

“Everything that is going forward is falling above the $2,000 (per square foot) price point,” Garber said. Projects with a projected price of $1,300 or $1,400 per square foot are not worth it to developers, he said. “In the short term, we are not going to see a lot of those delivered.”

The crop of condo projects opening next year will be dominated by smaller boutique buildings in established neighborhoods. These will include 44 units at 875 California St. in Nob Hill, 40 units at 901 Tennessee St. in Dogpatch, and 35 units at 1868 Van Ness Ave. in Pacific Heights.

Conroe — whose recently completed development at 1598 Bay St. fetched between $1,400 and $1,800 per square foot — said the market is strong for new for-sale buildings in neighborhoods like the Marina that don’t see much development.

“You have two kinds of buyers in San Francisco — the generic buyer and the specialty buyer,” he said, adding that the latter group wants to buy only in certain neighborhoods. “It’s like selling a Tiffany’s or a Bentley.”

Garber said he doesn’t expect to see condo inventory picking up until 2020 or 2021, and even then, most units for sale will be in super-luxury towers like 706 Mission and One Steuart Lane — which will open in 2021 — and Mira (160 Folsom St.), which opens in 2020.

Gregg Lynn, a Sotheby’s broker who focuses on the luxury downtown market, said his clients are still bullish and are eagerly awaiting the next generation of deluxe towers. “We have clients who have been waiting for (706 Mission St.) for 10 years,” he said.

He said the stock market’s recent dip has not hurt his business.

“If anything, it’s helped,” he said. “Our customers look at real estate as a more stable, alternative investment.”

J.K. Dineen is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jdineen@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @sfjkdineen

Bay Area home prices rose at their slowest year-over-year pace in almost two years last month, another sign of a decelerating market.

The median price paid for a home or condo in the nine counties was $815,000 in November, down 3.8 percent from October and up 3.8 percent from November 2017, research firm CoreLogic said in a report issued Friday.

The median price is down 6.9 percent from its all-time high of $875,000 set in June.

Year over year, the median price had been rising in the double digits for 13 consecutive months until September, when it rose 9.3 percent. October’s gain was also 9.3 percent, so November’s 3.8 percent increase marks a significant slowdown in appreciation.

The Bay Area median price hasn’t fallen year over year since March 2012, when it dipped 0.6 percent to $358,000. Since then, it has risen for 80 straight months, said CoreLogic analyst Andrew LePage.

Sales of new and existing single-family homes and condos, meanwhile, totaled 6,147 in November, down 14 percent from October and down 15.2 percent from November of last year. Sales typically slow between October and November, but the average decline since 1988 is only 8.8 percent.

“November’s slowdown affected all major price categories, including a nearly 10 percent annual drop in $1 million-plus sales, which have fallen year over year in two of the last three months. Higher mortgage rates worsened affordability constraints this year, and in recent months, stock market volatility could have contributed to a high-end pullback,” LePage said in a press release.

On the bright side, the stock market correction drove investors into the safety of Treasury securities, driving their prices up and yields — which move in the opposite direction — down. The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage, which tends to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, fell to 4.55 percent this week from almost 5 percent in mid-November, according to Freddie Mac.

Home prices rose last month on a year-over-year basis in all Bay Area counties except Napa and Sonoma, where they fell 6.8 and 5.3 percent, respectively. Those declines “likely reflect, at least in part, market-mix changes that occurred in November of last year following the October 2017 wildfires, which caused some deals to close in November 2017,” LePage said.

“That was the beginning of the rush to shelter,” said Rick Laws, regional vice president in Sonoma County with the Compass real estate brokerage. “Some people immediately went out and bought homes.”

Soaring prices lured more sellers into the market but caused some buyers to back off. That, “coupled with the falloff once everyone who was a fire victim found someplace to live, caused demand intensity to slack off,” Laws said.

“I think the market (in Sonoma County) is experiencing the same sentimental adjustment the rest of the Bay Area and nation are,” Laws said. “There has been a pullback by buyers that’s going to cause prices to settle back. I think buyers will stay back until spring.”

He predicts that in the spring, “there are going to be a lot of people in rentals who will have to make a decision about whether to rebuild, sell (their empty lot), buy an existing home or find a spec property because their rental money is going to run out.”

Most insurance companies provide up to two years of living expenses to people who lost homes in last year’s fire. Some are already reminding their policyholders of this, Laws said. In the spring and summer, “I think you will see increased activity, a mini-rush to shelter if you will.”

Jenny Romeyn and her husband, Ramin Ramhormozi, decided to sell their 3,800-square-foot home in the upscale Skyhawk area of Santa Rosa because they wanted to be closer to downtown, near both their jobs and their children’s school.

Romeyn said she figured “now is the time to get out of the bigger home market. I felt like once everything is rebuilt in Fountaingrove, it wouldn’t be a good time to sell. We will be up against all these brand-new homes. Right now there was nothing like ours on the market.”

They got their home ready to list, but buying a new home was “a bit harder than I thought it would be,” she said.

The couple found a 2,100-square-foot home in need of renovation that was originally priced at $905,000 in September. Romeyn considered that price “ridiculous” considering “it hadn’t been touched” since the 1950s, she said. It even had a carpeted rumpus room with an indoor grill.

The price had later been reduced to $699,000, and the sellers accepted their offer of about $623,000.

They immediately listed their large home at $1,395,000 and within a week had an all-cash offer for $1,350,000, which they accepted. The buyers even gave them two months of free rent so they could continue to live in it while they renovate and expand their new home.

Both deals closed last month.

Kathleen Pender is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. Email: kpender@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @kathpender