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The ultra-pricey Bay Area continues to lead the nation in declining housing rental prices, but new data show the pandemic “freefall” may be slowing.

In October, San Francisco once again topped the U.S. list for biggest rental price decreases, according to listing websites Zumper and Apartment List. Zumper reported that the average one-bedroom rent in the city was $2,800, a decline of 1.1% from the previous month and a 20.7% decline year over year.

No. 4 on the list is San Jose, with a median one-bedroom rent of $2,120, a decrease of $110 from September. Oakland is fifth on the list, dropping to $2,020 last month, which is also a decline of $110 from the previous month.

Oakland had the largest one-bedroom median rent decrease from the previous month, falling 5.2%, but it’s still the fifth most expensive rental market in the country.

All three Bay Area cities are in a group of historically expensive cities that have seen their rental prices plunge since May, said Zumper analyst Neil Gerstein.

“Despite these record-breaking year-over-year decreases, there are some signs that drops could be slowing down in some expensive cities,” Gerstein said. “San Francisco, which has been in a rental price freefall, experienced its lowest monthly decrease since April at -1.1%.”

The previous month, that decrease was 6.9% in San Francisco.

Price declines also slowed in the nation’s second most expensive city, New York, from 3.7% in September to 1.9% in October. Year over year, the decline is 15%, and the median price for a one-bedroom apartment in the Big Apple is now $2,550, according to Zumper.

If prices stabilize, San Francisco will continue to be the nation’s most expensive metro area, according to the Zumper report.

Gerstein said the Bay Area metro region had an average decrease of 0.9% last month, compared with a decline of 2.4% the previous month.

Zumper analyzes rental data from more than 1 million active listings across the country. It includes new construction and excludes listings that are currently occupied or no longer available.

Apartment List’s November national rent report said the dip in rental prices nationally has stabilized since the beginning of the pandemic, with October declines in line with “more typical” seasonal trends.

The Apartment List report showed large variations by region. Rent prices continue to drop rapidly in pricey coastal cities such as San Francisco and New York, while growth in rental prices has increased during the pandemic in some midsize cities in more affordable areas such as Boise, Idaho.

Since March, rents are down in 41 of the largest 100 U.S. cities, according to the report. They include San Francisco, which still tops the list for rent decreases, dropping 23.4% year over year and 4.9% from September. In Apartment List’s November San Francisco rent report, the median rent is $2,132 for a one-bedroom and $2,467 for a two-bedroom.

San Jose is fifth on the list, declining 12.2% since March with an average two-bedroom rent of $2,111, and Oakland is at the No. 7 spot going down 9.8% to $2,049 median rent for a two-bedroom. Fremont also made the list in the 10th position, declining 7.6% since March with an average $2,747 two-bedroom rent.

The San Francisco rent report shows that Pleasant Hill is the only large Bay Area city to see an increase year over year, at 1.8%, with a one-bedroom median price of $1,761. Dublin has the highest Bay Area rental prices with a two-bedroom median of $3,275.

Apartment List’s national rent report noted that many cities where rent is increasing fastest are within commute distance of larger job centers. Reno, for example, at No. 5 on the list of cities with the greatest rent growth since March at 6.6%, is within “feasible” distance for an occasional trip to the Bay Area, the report said. “This trend may indicate that even workers who are planning for a permanent shift toward remote work still value the option to go into the office when needed,” Apartment List said.

Apartment List’s approach starts with statistics from the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, and it includes rents for older units and those in lower-income neighborhoods. The company recently introduced a new methodology to identify transacted rent prices used to calculate rent growth rates, which they say controls for price fluctuations during a vacancy.

Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @KellieHwang

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Rent-prices-drop-again-in-S-F-and-other-Bay-Area-15692584.php

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The Covid-19 pandemic has caused buyers in California’s Bay Area to choose bigger, more expensive homes outside the city, causing significant price increases in the San Francisco suburbs, according to a report Thursday from Compass in San Francisco.

Take Marin County, just over the Golden Gate Bridge. There, the median home price was $1.55 million in the third quarter of 2020, compared to $1.28 million in the same time period last year, according to the report—a 21% year-over-year increase. Or Santa Clara County, where data showed the median price for a single-family home in the third quarter was $1.4 million, up from $1.24 million in 2019.

Sales of luxury homes are also up dramatically, the report found.

For example, the number of homes priced at more than $2.5 million sold in Marin County jumped to 185 in the third quarter, more than double the 83 recorded during the same period last year. In Santa Clara County, there were 304 sales of homes over $3 million, compared to 180 in 2019.

“The affluent and the super affluent are constituting a much greater percentage of demand in the last three months than they did typically,” said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst at Compass. “And they are buying big, expensive homes.”

In fact, the average size of homes being purchased has gone up between 5% and 10% in counties across the Bay Area, he added.

More: Variety and Extra Space are Trending in San Francisco

Meanwhile, the city saw only modest gains. The median home price in San Francisco rose from $1.58 million to $1.66 million in the third quarter, a 5.1% rise compared to the same time period in 2019, the report found.

“The markets in San Francisco, and to some degree, Oakland and San Mateo…have been incredibly strong basically for the last eight years,” Mr. Carlisle said. “But now they are the softer markets within the Bay Area as people have either moved or bought second homes in areas that aren’t so densely populated.”

The city’s condo market “has been hit very hard,” he explained. “Inventory has gone through the roof to its highest level in at least 15 years and probably forever.”

Median condo prices in San Francisco dipped 1.9% year-over-year in the third quarter, from $1.28 million to $1.25 million, the data showed.

Those who are in the market for a condo are also going for more space, he added.

“A whole lot more two-bedroom condos have been selling than one-bedroom condos,” Mr. Carlisle said. “Even in the condo market, people are buying bigger condos than they did last year.”

Mr. Carlisle also noted that the economic shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic shifted the area’s seasonal market, which is typically very busy in the spring and not so in the summer.

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“This year, the spring season got pushed to the summer season, so these year-over-year comparisons are a little bit out of whack,” he said. “We’re comparing it to what is usually the slow season for luxury homes.”

Article source: https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/bay-area-california-buyers-are-upsizing-and-moving-away-from-the-city-220211

Biden recently discussed raising income taxes north of 60% in California and that would disincentivize many from investing there. If people aren’t spending the money then the market isn’t moving; San Francisco has seen a huge slowdown in their number of transactions, which isn’t good.

Obviously, San Francisco is a democratic city within a democratic state, but business owners are becoming frustrated with that. Elon Musk just bought 2,000 acres in Austin, Texas to build the largest Gigafactory in the world, expressing dissatisfaction with San Francisco on Twitter. The election could exacerbate that problem for the city, continuing the exodus from San Francisco to cities along the Sun Belt with burgeoning technology scenes.

If Biden wins, I think it’s going to cause even more problems because a lot of the business owners will be even more disincentivized to keep their companies there, and their workforce is leaving the city, posing an issue for many years to come.

Ari Rastegar, Rastegar Property Company, 512-729-7777, www.connect.rastegarproperty.com.

A: Every year, the real estate market slows in November. But, as we are all painfully aware, this is not like any other year. Nor is this like any normal election cycle. Nerves are frayed and we are seeing that in the real estate market. Many buyers are choosing to wait until after the election to make a move.

Partially it has to do with watching the market and rates post-election but it’s also a lack of emotional bandwidth. Several buyers say they just can’t think about buying because they are all-consumed with the upcoming election. Concern for the future is certainly a factor but sheer election exhaustion is keeping some from moving forward.

The overwhelming majority of this city hopes it goes one way and if it does, we should have a busy fall but even if it doesn’t, having the election in the rearview mirror will be good for the Bay Area real estate market.

Greggory Onzo-Tasher, Vanguard Properties, 415-609-5451, greggory@vanguardproperties.com.

A: With low mortgage rates, Bay Area real estate has continued to push forward even with the upcoming election. Historically, election years often negatively affect the stock market and in turn hurt confidence in the economy causing some sellers to delay their sale and making some buyers nervous to purchase.

However, real estate in the Bay Area is still moving forward. No one can accurately predict the future (as COVID in 2020 has reminded us!). Even if the real estate market slows down due to the election, I feel it would be temporary.

Many buyers and sellers might be cautiously waiting, but although there was a COVID slowdown, the past few months have shown that people still need to buy or sell as life events march on regardless. The election taking place is no different.

Ron Abta, Polaris Realty, 415-595-7661, ron@polaris-re.com.

Median one-bedroom prices were down 20.7% compared with October 2019, dropping to an average of $2,800. The two-bedroom median dropped 2.9% from the month prior to $3,690.

Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades even speculated on Twitter that his team thought New York City might eclipse San Francisco as the most expensive rental market in the country. “However NYC saw a steeper price dip in October and remains the second most expensive rental market at a median of $2,550,” he wrote.

The Bay Area has three of the country’s most expensive rental markets, but all are continuing to decline in pricing. Oakland had the largest decrease in one-bedroom median rent from the prior month, dropping 5.2%. Median one-bedroom rent fell to $2,020, and two-bedroom median rent decreased 2.6% from the prior month to $2,630.

Overall, Oakland one- and two-bedroom medians decreased 19.2% and 12.3% year over year, respectively.

San Jose one-bedrooms decreased 4.9% to $2,120 from the month prior and the two-bedroom median decreased 3.2% to $2,680. In total, one- and two-bedroom medians decreased by 13.5% and 9.2% from last year, respectively.

ApartmentList had similar findings, with a decline of 21.7% in San Francisco rents since the start of the pandemic. Company data shows that a median two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco now rents for $2,467, compared with $3,254 at this time last year.

As always, let’s never forget that while rents have plummeted, it’s all relative. The national one-bedroom median rent is $1,225, while the two-bedroom median is $1,483.