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San Francisco stats like you’ve never seen them

Wed, 19 Jun 2013 01:45:30 +0000

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San Francisco gets called diverse, liberal, wealthy, and over-educated– often. And apparently, such adjectives are verifiable, thanks to these handy graphs developed by Paragon Real Estate (view the original post with more slides at The Frontsteps blog). Note that the data crunched here is predominately that of the 2010 census, so some figures will be less than current, and perhaps not completely accurate as they are subject to that which is (and is not) reported to the census.

Still, overall, kind of cool stuff. And to most residents, these slides seem to tell of a version of San Francisco that’s pretty close to the real story.

Anna Marie Erwert writes from both the renter and new buyer perspective, having (finally) achieved both statuses. She focuses on national real estate trends, specializing in the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest, and writes for SFGate and CurbedSF. Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaMarieErwert

Article source: http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2013/06/18/san-francisco-stats-like-youve-never-seen-them/

Housing: Picking Up the Pieces

Wed, 06 Mar 2013 01:54:41 +0000

As for home building, which had surged to a peak of just over two million housing starts earlier in the decade, by October 2007 builders were starting about half that at 1.2 million. Today, while coming back, starts are still at about 890,000 annualized. Builders are seeing more demand, and new orders for the big public builders are back at least 30 percent from where they were a year ago, but demand is far from what it once was.

Today, far more Americans are renting. In fact, all of the latest household formations, according to the U.S. Census, are in rental units. The home ownership rate, which reached a high of just over 69 percent in 2004, stood at 67.8 percent in the fall of 2007. Today it continues to fall, now down to 65.4 percent.

(Read More: Best US Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers)

Perhaps the biggest difference in today’s housing market from 2007 is in mortgage rates and activity. In October of 2007, the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.38 percent. Today it is nearly half that at 3.67 percent. In turn, it is a tale of opposites. Refinance volume today is twice what it was in 2007, while mortgage applications to purchase a home are about half what they were.

(Read More: Soaring HousingStocks in Perspective)

In October 2007, the housing market was in the direct path of a massive foreclosure storm. Today, it is still picking up the pieces, with 5.3 million homeowners either delinquent on their mortgages or in foreclosure, according to Lender Processing Services. The good news is that the numbers are coming down, but the clean-up is far from over.

(Read More: How We Got Here, Where We’re Going)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419903

Pending Home Sales Fall Due to Dwindling Supply

Mon, 28 Jan 2013 20:47:17 +0000

The Realtors’ monthly index fell 5.4 percent in the Northeast month-to-month, rose 0.9 percent in the Midwest, fell 4.5 percent in the South and fell 8.2 percent in the West. The West, and its severely distressed markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas, has been the center of most investor interest and is therefore seeing the lowest supply of properties for sale. The West is also the only region that saw a year-over-year decline in signed sales contracts in December.

(Read More: Could Rentals Be the New Red Flags in Real Estate?)

Housing inventory usually drops in the winter months, only to rebound in the spring, but this winter has seen a larger than normal decline. Realtors are looking for more homes to come on the market in the spring, but there are still 10.7 million borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, and an additional 2.3 million who have less than five percent equity in their homes, according to CoreLogic. Those homeowners cannot sell without having to pay into their mortgages, so they are largely stuck in place. First-time home buyers are purchasing at an unusually low rate due to tighter credit standards, and many potential sellers simply don’t want to list until prices rise more substantially.

(Read More: Soaring Housing Stocks in Perspective)

“We expect a seasonal rise of inventory in the spring to help, but a seller’s market may be developing,” notes Yun. “Much of the West is already a seller’s market for homes priced under a million dollars, but conditions are much more balanced in the Northeast.”

(Read More: Home Builders Turn to Rental Apartments)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100412357

Housing Recovers, but the Repo Man Is Back

Thu, 13 Dec 2012 23:25:27 +0000

Foreclosures continue to ease in the formerly hard hit states, like California, Arizona and Nevada, as investor demand continues to prop up home prices and clear distress from those markets. Newly started foreclosures fell 63 percent from a year ago in California and 59 percent in Arizona.

Foreclosure activity nationwide has now fallen for 26 straight months on an annual basis, according to RealtyTrac, but the large overhang of distress keeps that drop in perspective.

(Read More: Mortgage Break No Longer Sacred)

“While this metric continues being a mild positive for the builders, we do not see it as a meaningful equity driver, but instead, just as another positive data point in the early stages of the housing recovery,” writes ISI’s Stephen East, who also notes that newly started foreclosures are at a 71-month low.

Much of that drop is due to aggressive, principal reduction loan modifications by the nation’s five largest banks under the Mortgage Servicing Settlement. They are also ramping up short sales, which have now surpassed sales of foreclosed homes. Those foreclosure mitigation strategies are at risk from the fiscal cliff. If Congress does not extend a tax relief law on this debt forgiveness, which is scheduled to expire at the end of this month, borrowers will likely reject these loan modifications and short sale offers, given that they would then involve a huge tax bill.

(Read More: Best US Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100311070

Election and Housing: Is Your Home’s Value Better Off?

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:10:25 +0000

Are we better off today than we were four years ago? That is the constant question on the eve of yet another tight presidential race. From the perspective of home prices, the answer is, as always, it depends on where you live. Some cities are faring far better than others, and some believe that home prices are not entirely finished correcting.

According to the widely watched SP/Case Shiller Home Price Indices, home values in the nation’s ten largest cities were down 2.4 percent from January 2009 through August 2012 seasonally adjusted. For the top twenty cities, they are down 3.7 percent seasonally adjusted.

These two composites, however, are still both off nearly 30 percent from the peaks in the summer of 2006.

Remember, also, that we saw a bump in home prices in 2010 from the Obama administration’s home buyer tax credit. Home prices on the 20-city composite were up 1.5 percent in August 2010, not seasonally adjusted, from January 2009, but then of course they dropped again, and we are still, today, below that level of the tax credit surge. (Read More: Home Prices Rise, but Analysts See Pressure Ahead.)

So can an incumbent president win a second term when home prices are lower than they were when he took office? I asked SP’s David Blitzer:

“Our data go back to 1987 for the 10-City Composite, so there are a couple of hints — Bush-1 took office with the index at 77.99 In January 1989; in November 1992 it was 77.09, and he lost. In August 1992 (comparable to August 2012, our latest data point) the index was 77.76, also down by the slightest amount. Clinton, who was re-elected saw home prices rise from an index of 76.56 to 78.23 during his first term — up 2.2 percent over four years. The Clinton increase points out how large the price moves in the 2000s were. In the Carter years inflation was running close to double digits so home prices were most likely rising in nominal terms.”

(Read More: Cities With the Most Affordable Homes.)

While SP/Case-Shiller’s top ten and top twenty city composites are basically flat since President Obama took office, the national quarterly index is up 2.6 percent not seasonally adjusted, and consumer confidence in home prices is higher than it has been.

“Consumers’ average home price change expectation is 1.5 percent, consistent with recent periods and marking nearly a full year in which home price expectations have been positive,” according to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey, released in early October. “Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed expect home prices to go up in the next year, the highest level since the survey’s inception in June 2010.”

Confidence is up and national home price statistics are up, but 10.8 million, or 22.3 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage, owe more on that mortgage than their home is currently worth, according to CoreLogic. An additional 2.3 million borrowers have less than 5 percent equity in their homes, making it very difficult to move up or even out.

Still, all real estate is local, so take a look to see where you might be:

-By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow Her on Twitter @Diana_Olick and Facebook.
Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Click on ticker to follow real estate news:

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49694810?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

San Francisco 49ers: Don’t Believe the Hype, Top 5 Lockout-Induced Fabrications

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 21:08:32 +0000

Last but not least, the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL is reportedly taking place in San Francisco.

This overhyped story takes the cake.

I know California is the capital of medical marijuana, but the memory issues in the Bay Area are beyond explanation now.

Alex Smith has played horribly. Regardless of the excuses and besides a couple bright moments, Alex Smith has been awful for six years.

Let’s put this in perspective.

I am a Real Estate guy. If you asked me to sell your home, and I failed, not once, not twice, but six freaking times, would you ask me to return for a seventh?

No you would not. You wouldn’t even ask me back for a second time.

Would it matter to you if I had a bunch of excuses? No.

The bottom line is, you want your house sold.

Well, the 49ers want to win games. And they want a quarterback that will help them do that.

I will admit Alex is doing great as a fill-in coach. I would love for him to play five to seven more years on the 49ers as a backup.

I think he would be the top No. 2 in the league and very helpful for Colin Kaepernick, or whoever for that matter. But make no mistake, Alex Smith is not going to transform into Joe Montana or Steve Young or even Jeff Garcia. He is going to be Alex Smith.

So please, just stop it.

This is Ryan The Broker, signing off for, “Wake Up San Francisco!”

Thanks for reading!

Please join me on Twitter @ryanthebroker.

Article source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/753473-san-francisco-49ers-dont-believe-the-hype-top-5-lockout-induced-fabrications

Why do we buy if it doesn’t make economic sense?

Sat, 14 May 2011 01:40:45 +0000

Why do we buy if it doesn’t make economic sense?

It’s the age old question, rent or buy? New York Times writer David Leonhardt tackled this timeless issue again in his latest weekly column. As he points out, all sorts of calculators live on the web for anyone to input a few data points to analyze whether it’s better to buy or rent. However, most of these calculators look at it from a purely financial perspective, whether the costs of buying outweigh the costs of renting. Some calculators are more sophisticated, taking into account often overlooked items such as closing costs, property taxes and the amount of interest or appreciation your down payment would have otherwise earned, if it wasn’t used towards a home purchase.

Miami Real Estate Cafe

The never ending debate

He also advises look at rent ratios, where the selling price of a house is divided by the yearly cost to rent an equivalent property. Fifteen is the magic number with rent ratios. Below 15, he advises buying over renting. Rent ratios in most of the Bay Area are still looking “bubbly,” coming in above 30 down in Silicon valley and the East Bay. In San Francisco, the rent ratio is currently at 27, still above 15 but at least closer to its 1986-2000 average of 24. The average rent ratio for the 1990-2000 East Bay and Silicon Valley was 26 and 23, meaning it has gotten more and more expensive to buy, though it’s less expensive now than in 2005 when the housing market was peaking. The rent ratios in 2005 were 47, 43 and 40 for the East Bay, Silicon Valley and San Francisco. So if it doesn’t make economic sense, why do people still keep buying?

Affluent people tend to want to own their houses, even when the dollars don’t make sense, and the Northeast and West Coast are home to much more wealth than a few decades ago.

Yet the fact remains that a lot of New Yorkers and Californians, among others, are paying a hefty premium for the privilege of owning.

A while back, readers commented on this blog that being a homeowner was a way to deal with non performing landlords. How much is that worth economically? Leonhardt says that our area is still in a state of “real estate exuberance,” but that given our current behavior and trends, it may survive.

How do you evaluate the costs of buying vs. renting? Did you buy even if it didn’t make economic sense?

For a full list of rent ratios, click here.

Posted By: Jenny Pisillo (Email) | May 13 2011 at 01:00 PM

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Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ontheblock/detail?entry_id=88931&tsp=1