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Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2022/central-napa-home-real-estate-quiz/

As if it wasn’t hard enough to buy a home in the Bay Area, right now it’s hard to even find a home to buy.

The number of houses for sale in December sank to historic lows, dropping 22% in San Francisco and the East Bay and 32% in the South Bay from the previous year, according to Zillow data.

In recent weeks, only about 700 single-family homes were up for sale in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties – less than half the number of a year ago for a population of nearly 2.7 million people. The East Bay is also pinched.

“It’s been a cold, dry winter,” said David Stark of Bay East Association of Realtors, “for Bay Area real estate.”

Bay Area home inventory has been tight for decades, with home construction lagging far behind the number of new residents migrating to the region for its booming economy and opportunities. The recent dearth of supply has helped to drive home prices to record highs, stoked hot bidding wars across the region, and forced buyers to cross out items on their “must-have” lists or simply give up.

Sellers have been reluctant to list properties for a number of reasons, agents say: pandemic cautions, a reluctance to move and become buyers in a fierce market, or a desire to wait for the value of their home to climb higher. The median price of a single-family home in the nine-county Bay Area hit $1.2 million in December, up 13 percent from the previous year.

By normal standards, a three-month inventory of homes for sale – roughly the measure of how long it would take for all the available homes to sell – is considered balanced, giving buyers sufficient choices and sellers enough opportunity to move. In the Bay Area, inventory in December slipped to less than a month, according to the California Association of Realtors.

The scarcity mirrors a national trend. Online broker Zillow estimates the U.S. supply of homes for sale has reached a record low, dropping 40% in the last two years. That’s driven home values up 20%, to a national median of $320,000.

“Home shoppers picked the shelves clean this December,” said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker, “leaving fewer active listings than ever before in the U.S. housing market.”

Sales and listings typically slow during the holiday season, but this year’s drop is more dramatic than comparable winter slowdowns. Home choices in certain cities are particularly bleak, according to data from Aculist.

The number of homes for sale in December in San Jose fell 60% from the previous year to just 106 properties, dropped 40% in Oakland to 103, and nearly 50% in Fremont where only 12 homes were for sale. Several other South Bay cities saw single-digit availability: 9 homes in Menlo Park, 6 in Cupertino, 5 in Burlingame, 4 in San Mateo and one in Campbell.

In the East Bay, the Lamorinda area had just 9 homes for sale, less than a quarter of last December’s total. Central Contra Costa County, including Concord, Pleasant Hill and Walnut Creek, had 35 listings, a little more than half of last year’s supply.

“It’s a different market because of the supply,” said Michelle Ronco of Aculist. “It’s the worst.”

Agents and buyers report fatigue, frustration and an alternating cycle of hope and abject despair. “What inventory?” asked Pleasanton agent Tina Hand. “It’s hit or miss.”

Sellers are still getting multiple offers, and buyers have had to adjust to fewer choices, Hand said. “Some are at the point where they’ll take what’s available.”

Menlo Park agent Brett Caviness, president of the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors, has seen deep frustration – especially in clients who have made multiple, aggressive offers and failed to land a home.

“Things are selling so fast,” Caviness said. “They’ve got to be prepared to jump on it.”

Matt Rubenstein, a Compass agent in Walnut Creek, has had several clients who have been looking for months. Buyers are typically raising their budgets and lowering their expectations.

Rubenstein has toured about 20 homes with one couple. They haven’t found anything. “It’s been tough,” he said. “It’s a ton of work.”

Samantha and Jason Youngblood began their search with Rubenstein in August. They had talked for five years about moving out of their rental home in Concord to get more space for their three, school-aged children.

“We knew we had to get moving,” said Jason Youngblood, a 41-year-old electrician and foreman. “We’ve been wanting a house for years and years and years.”

They wanted to find a four-bedroom home in Concord near their current rental so their children wouldn’t have to change schools. They started with a budget of around $750,000, hoping to find a move-in-ready home.

The couple toured open houses many weekends but discovered few homes that met their criteria for space or school district. They upped their budget to around $800,000 and started looking at three-bedroom homes they could eventually expand.

They got outbid on three houses. “It was really defeating at first,” said Samantha Youngblood, 39. “It hurt. It really did hurt.”

The Youngbloods finally closed on a three-bedroom in Concord a few days before Christmas. They’ve spent the last several weeks fixing it up, and expect to move in early February.

“We’re fighters,” she said. “We don’t take no for an answer.”

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Article source: https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/22/bay-area-home-for-sale-signs-disappear

“Obviously it is not a huge problem that rich people on the lagoon cannot swim sometimes, but it would definitely be cool to solve it and it could be interesting to learn about it,” Momsen said.

These days the jellyfish seem to have mostly vanished from the lagoon, but some local residents are concerned about the arrival of a different species that has been even rarer in California’s wealthiest town: housing developers.

For the first time in 33 years a developer is proposing to build a multifamily complex in Belvedere, which was deemed California’s richest city in 2020. The 42-unit, mixed-income Mallard Pointe development would replace the 22-apartment rental complex that currently exists on the 2.8-acre site. The development, owned by an affiliate of Thompson Dorfman Partners LLC, would include 19 homes fronting onto the lagoon as well as a 23-unit apartment building on the land side of the property.

The project would include five deed-restricted affordable units, priced at families making between 60% and 80% of area median income —between about $77,000 and $100,000 for a couple. It would include six single-family homes on the lagoon, three of which would include more affordable accessory dwelling units. Another five of the apartments would be smaller, one-bedroom units, which will be “affordable by design,” according to developer Bruce Dorfman.

Dorfman said the project would represent Belvedere’s first-ever mixed-income development and that his group has tried to minimize impacts. At 13 units an acre it is significantly less dense than zoning would allow —with state density bonus laws the parcel could accommodate 80 homes. The last affordable units built in Belvedere, 11 senior apartments, opened in 1989, while the last market-rate, multifamily complex opened in 1969. Belvedere does not have an inclusionary housing law that requires developers to include below market rate homes.

“We are not trying to break a glass ceiling,” Dorfman said. “We are trying to do something that is consistent and contextual that the city should embrace. We think we have done that from a design standpoint.”

However, the proposal, which will be submitted to the city next week, is causing consternation in a town where the average home sells for $3.3 million and where lagoon-fronting homes regularly fetch between $5 million and $10 million.

The development has prompted the formation of a group called Belvedere Residents for Intelligent Growth, or BRIG. In a statement, provided by retired attorney John Hansen, the group said it has “serious concerns about the potential impacts on local flood control, zoning consistency and soil stability that could be caused by this large-scale waterfront subdivision.”

“We also share the concerns of our neighbors — seniors and young families — who face displacement from their rental units if the existing structures are demolished,” said the BRIG statement. “We are all for progress but smart progress. We are working with the City of Belvedere to ensure we meet our state-mandated affordable housing goals in a way that is environmentally sustainable and protective of the rights of existing residents and rent-paying tenants.”

Dorfman said that existing tenants, who pay about $6,000 for a 1,000-square-foot two-bedroom apartment, would be given the right to return when the new units are built. They will be given $6,500 in relocation funds and another $7,500 if they choose to come back into the new apartments.

The current owners bought the property in 2020 for $21 million. At first they looked at renovating the existing units, which have cramped kitchens and tiny bathrooms that are not wheelchair-accessible. There are also soil settlement issues because the units were built on what was filled-in marshland. But those renovations would have required that the homes be jacked 6 or 7 feet higher.

“Looking at it we thought, ‘Why are we raising antiquated floorplans? Why wouldn’t we start from scratch?’” Dorfman said.

The 66-acre lagoon, home to about 280 families, is owned and maintained by the Belvedere Lagoon Property Owners’ Association. While lagoon residents sail and kayak on the landlocked water, there is no public access. Motorized boats are not permitted. Most of the homes on the lagoon were built in the 1950s, although many have been torn down and replaced with more modern structures.

Under the state-mandated Regional Housing Needs Allocation program — known as RHNA — Belvedere must plan for about 160 new housing units between 2023 and 2030. Like many other communities Belvedere appealed its RHNA allocation, arguing that producing 160 new homes was a stretch in a town that is largely made up of water and steep hillside lots that were long ago built on.

“We are mostly water and a couple of islands and there is not a lot of open lots,” said Belvedere City Manager Craig Middleton. “It’s a heavy lift, but we are committed to trying to do it.”

The Mallard Pointe proposal is the only new housing in Belvedere’s pipeline.

“It’s a modest amount in terms of meeting the city’s RHNA — but at least it’s something,” said Eric Hohmann, a former Belvedere resident who is part of the development team.

Middleton said he couldn’t comment on the Mallard Pointe proposal because it has yet to be submitted. But he said the area is probably one of the few properties where densification is possible. “I’m looking forward to seeing it,” he said.

Architect Alex Seidel, who bought a home on the lagoon 25 years ago, said the Mallard Pointe proposal is consistent with the renovations and rebuilds that have become commonplace. Seidel said he has watched the Mallard Point homes settle into bay mud over the years, and that the structures would need to be replaced soon in anticipation of further subsistence and sea level rise.

“As a resident I embrace the idea the state has put out that all California communities should do what they can to increase housing stock,” he said. “Personally I would welcome the opportunity to share a rather lovely community with a few more folks and I think (Mallard Pointe) is our best opportunity to add some new housing units.”

For younger Marin-natives like Ethan Strull, a Bowdoin College student who is concerned with environmental justice and housing affordability, the project could create some opportunities for families who have been historically shut out of the mostly white, wealthy Marin County. Strull grew up in Tiburon and San Rafael.

“Growing up in Marin it’s not hard to see the inequities that are ever present here,” he said. “Every single part of Marin has a role in helping to desegregate the county and Belvedere is one of the most extreme examples.”

Given that Belvedere has seen almost no new housing built since the Summer of Love, it’s not surprising that residents would balk at a new apartment, even one that is slated to be just 34 feet tall.

“It’s the Manhattanization of Belvedere,” Dorfman joked. The pushback we are getting is the same you would get in Lafayette and in lot of other places where there is a sense of ‘why do these state laws apply to us?’”

This is a true “estate,” a study in over-the-top opulence. The main residence offers five beds and eight bathrooms; there is also a detached fitness center, hair salon and massage room; a separate executive office and conference center; and a two bedroom-suite guest house with a full kitchen.

Aside from the abundant living and working spaces, the property offers a plethora of entertaining features as well: a 6,000 bottle “wine salon,” a movie theater, a golf simulator lounge as well as outdoor luxe in the 65-foot pool and spa, dining pavilion with outdoor kitchen and fire pit.

Local real estate market followers are well aware of the increase in demand for luxury property: in fact, SFGATE dubbed 2021 the year of the luxury home, noting the striking uptick in prices as well as the number of high-end homes sold in the San Francisco Bay Area.

A 2021 report released by Compass confirms this. The Ultra-Luxury Real Estate Report compared sales activity of homes priced at $10M and above from 2020 and 2021 in 30 markets across the country including Tahoe and the San Francisco Bay Area. The data compiled points to shocking year-over-year gains in this already shockingly high-end of the market. 

Whoever buys this “Jewel of the Silicon Valley” will be purchasing the priciest local residential property of 2022 — so far. 

Anna Marie Erwert writes from both the renter and new buyer perspective, having (finally) achieved both statuses. She focuses on national real estate trends, specializing in the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest. Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaMarieErwert. 

Article source: https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/bay-area-most-expensive-real-estate-woodside-16848815.php

On Thursday Thumbtack, a home service platform, announced that it had leased a floor at 415 Natoma, the 640,000 square-foot tower that is part of 5M, a mixed-use four-acre development at Fifth and Mission streets in San Francisco. The project is the result of a partnership between Brookfield Properties, which built the 415 Natoma building, and Hearst, which owns The Chronicle.

But anyone expecting the typical mix of private offices, cubicles and conference rooms will not find it in Thumbtack’s new 5M location. Instead Thumbtack, which last year transitioned to a “virtual first” work model, says the 20,000 square-foot space on the 13th floor will serve as the company’s first “library.” Thumbtack is moving from 1355 Market St.

Thumbtack executive Jelena Djordjevic, whose title is vice president of people, said the space would test “a new concept providing space for independent work and in-person connections for local team members.”

“At Thumbtack, we are rethinking the future of work as we embrace a virtual-first model,” Djordjevic said. “We’re intentionally not building an ‘office.’ We’re excited to introduce a brand new, purpose-built environment to connect in-person — be that through an in-person activity or after work happy hour — or simply to enjoy a change of scenery day-to-day.”

The “library” will have floor-to-ceiling windows but no conference rooms. It will have two distinct spaces. One will be for social gatherings and will feature lounge areas, an open kitchen and separate bar. The other will feature “dedicated space for quiet, heads down work with dedicated Zoom rooms to meet with colleagues from around the world,” according to Thumbtack.

The lease comes as San Francisco’s pandemic-era office occupancy is second lowest in the United States, with tens of thousands of Bay Area employees still working at home, many with no certainty about if or when they will be expected back at the office. Downtown office vacancy is currently at 23%, or 19.8 million square feet, while roughly 28% of the city’s office space is available for lease, although some of that is not vacant yet, according to CBRE.

The Thumbtack deal is unusual is that owners of new buildings tend to hold out for an anchor tenant willing to commit to a sizable chuck of the building. In this case interest from other prospective tenants is strong enough that Brookfield felt confident opening up with just one floor leased, according to Cutter MacLeod, director of asset management for Brookfield Properties.

“We have all taken our licks over the last couple of years but we are excited to welcome a design-focused occupant like Thumbtack,” said MacLeod. “The fact that they were looking for a new headquarters and a fresh start, and we were able to give that to them, underscores that this is the newest building in town, that we are open for business, and that tenants want what we are offering.”

Thumbtack, valued at $3.2 billion, was started in 2008, just five blocks away from 5M, and said it remains committed to growing its business in the city.

In addition to the new office building on Natoma alley, Brookfield recently opened The George, a 302-unit apartment complex just to the west of The Chronicle’s newsroom at 901 Mission St. The 4-acre mixed-use complex known as 5M will eventually include 856 housing units, a 648,000-square-foot office tower and a 12,000-square-foot community arts center that will open onto a plaza with a stage, a children’s playground and a dog run.

Nick Slonek, managing director of the commercial real estate brokerage Avison Young, said the Thumbtack deal is indicative of a “fluid market” that has yet to find its footing after nearly two years of rising and falling COVID infection rates, stop-and-start pandemic restrictions, and a workforce that is increasingly happy with remote work.

“The confusion around what the future of space will look like is one of the governors of the lack of activity in the market right now,” said Slonek. “Thumbtack calling it a library is evidence of that.”

He said most office leasing activity will be slow until the big tech players like Google and Facebook bring back a sizable number of their workers.

“At that point people won’t be calling their offices libraries any more,” he said.

As people return to work, however, many may seek to replicate the low-key neighborhood feel that working-from-home can offer: outdoor spaces, cafes and flexible casual meeting places, according to CBRE Research Director Colin Yasukochi. 5M has those qualities, he said.

“While downtown remains sparsely populated San Francisco’s neighborhoods are vibrant. Brookfield is trying to create that kind of environment,” Yasukochi said. “There are so many employees that have never seen the inside of their own company’s offices. There is a sense that more collaborative, social gathering spaces would be something highly desired by employees.”