San Francisco rents close 2018 by rising—again

Winter is here, both for the city and for San Francisco’s always chilling rent prices, which show no signs of seasonal generosity according to reports from popular rental platforms furnishing data for the city.

Although San Francisco’s housing market seems just on the brink of turning downward year in and year out—and while some key indicators did, in fact, contract in 2018—the price of renting keeps trekking ever upward.

Across the board, year-end data shows another year-over-year appreciation in apartment prices, with San Francisco now so firmly ensconced as the country’s most expensive place to rent a home that it’s hard to imagine when the top spot might ever change.



15865 shutterstock 1246832917 San Francisco rents close 2018 by rising—again

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  • A one-bedroom SF apartment on Zumper closes November at a median of $3,560/month (the highest in the country), down 1.7 percent from the previous month but still up five percent year over year. Prices of similar units on the site are up all across the Bay Area, appreciating 3.3 percent in San Jose and an incredible 14.1 percent in Oakland. For comparison, the nationwide median on the same site is $1,212/month, down 1.4 percent from last year.
  • On Apartment List, a similar unit in SF averages $2,414/month, up 1.8 percent compared to the same time last year. Apartment List’s figures tend to run lower than competing sites and the swings in year-over-year changes tend to be less because of the site’s different methodology, which it claims corrects sample biases; but SF is still the priciest place to live on this list. “Of the largest ten cities that we have data for in the San Francisco metro, nine of them have seen prices rise,” economist Chris Salvati writes, the exception being Antioch, which is down 0.6 percent from 2017.
  • Competitor site Rent Cafe updates figures toward the middle of the month, so the most recent numbers provided still reflect October. There, SF ranks only second on the national listings, but that’s because RENT Cafe breaks out figures for the borough of Manhattan (where a single bedroom is $4,181/month) separately from those of the rest of New York City. Here in the city a Rent Cafe home runs $3,609/month, up 4.7 percent from the same time in 2017.
  • Abodo release rent reports intermittently, and their most recent figures also dates to the end of October as well, when a single-bed SF home was $3,816/month, the highest figure out of the entire field. Abodo doesn’t specify how that compares to last year, but a look back in time shows that around the same period last year it was $3,303, an increase of more than 15.5 percent.

As always, it’s important to note that for most of these sites, the data reported reflects only the listings on each respective site, which may or may not track with prices citywide.

Apartment rental sites are more likely to attract listings for new construction that are aimed at relatively wealthy renters. Also of note, the city’s median rent includes rent controlled units and old leases rarely found on sites like Zumper.

With all that said, it’s difficult to parse the ever-rising figures as reflecting anything except a rising cost of living and renting in the city, especially given block after block of corroborating evidence from other fronts.

Article source: https://sf.curbed.com/2018/12/5/18127815/san-francisco-rents-december-2018

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The SF neighborhoods where homes actually got cheaper

Although 2018 saw the expected talk of SF’s home market finally flattening out and even began to see some real signs of contracting, for the most part actual sale prices all over the city just kept on going up all year long.

With some exceptions.

The real estate site PropertyShark has compiled all public sales of homes across San Francisco and ranked the 50 priciest neighborhoods, starting with number one slotted Presidio Heights.

That ritzy corner of the city saw its median sales price escalate to $4.5 million, a spike of 24.5 percent year over year, although bear in mind that’s based off of a fairly small sample size of 40 sales.

Number two ranked Sea Cliff only netted 11 sales this year for a median that rose a slightly spooky 11.11 percent since 2017, finishing at more than $3.87 million. Ultra tony St Francis Wood was up 3.8 percent for third place at $2.72 million-plus.

But where are the city spots where prices actually declined in 2018? There aren’t many, but according to the PropertyShark figures a few SF neighborhoods stalled over the past 12 months, including:

  • Noe Valley: A big surprise here, and also one of the largest samples in the city with 208 recorded sales. Unfortunately the decline is so minimal—down just 0.14 percent—as to be essentially flat.
  • Inner Richmond: And there’s probably not much ado about this one either, since the decline of just 0.16 percent is also entirely marginal. It is interesting that the Inner Richmond dropped at all though, given how prominent its rising popularity has been the last couple of years—it was even one of our final Curbed Cup winners. The new median here is $1.57 million.

d11b1 shutterstock 585360251 The SF neighborhoods where homes actually got cheaper

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  • NoPa: Despite its proximity to the park and Haight, things turned south in NoPa this year with the neighborhood median down 1.46 percent to “just” $1.35 million on average.
  • Nob Hill: Despite its historically swanky reputation, Nob Hill was only the 47th most expensive SF neighborhood this year, and its median declined 2.38 percent, down to $1.33 million plus.
  • Parnassus Heights: Probably nothing to get excited about here. While the median for the neighborhood did decline a seemingly significant 5.75 percent, only 15 homes sold here all year, so it only takes a couple of sales to move the needle.
  • Jordan Park/Laurel Heights: Another big ticket neighborhood—or set of them—that took a hit, down six percent to $1.76 million.
  • Pacific Heights: Even San Francisco’s seat of luxury saw its bottom fall out, dropping 7.59 percent off of 173 sales this year, down to a median of $1.65 million.
  • Inner Sunset: Note that even after a drop of 8.24 percent down to $1.56 million that this westernmost neighborhood still has a higher median than the likes of Telegraph Hill, Bernal Heights, and the Haight, to name a few.
  • Lake Street: Though little remarked upon, this small strip just south of the Presidio saw a busy year, with 50 homes sold and prices declining by 8.75 percent, down to $1.82 million.
  • Clarendon Heights: Likely another trick of the numbers. Though sale prices were down 14.48 percent (to $2.9 million), that’s based on just 13 homes sold.

According to PropertyShark writer Robert Demeter “Median home sale prices were calculated based on residential property sales closed between January 1, 2018 and December 14, 2018,” including condos.

For the full list of what happened where in SF, check here.

Article source: https://sf.curbed.com/2018/12/20/18150063/propertyshark-sf-neighborhoods-2018-most-expensive-least

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These are the SF neighborhoods where 2018 prices went up and down the most


  • 1bade 920x920 These are the SF neighborhoods where 2018 prices went up and down the most

    Lone Mountain’s median went up over 50% this year. This home sold for $1.675K in September after listing in August for $1.495K

    Lone Mountain’s median went up over 50% this year. This home sold for $1.675K in September after listing in August for $1.495K


    Photo: Redfin/MLS

  •  These are the SF neighborhoods where 2018 prices went up and down the most

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Lone Mountain’s median went up over 50% this year. This home sold for $1.675K in September after listing in August for $1.495K

Lone Mountain’s median went up over 50% this year. This home sold for $1.675K in September after listing in August for $1.495K



Photo: Redfin/MLS


Which neighborhood experienced the highest gain in year-over-year median sales price (over 50 percent!) and which neighborhood experienced the biggest decline? These 2018 real estate figures might surprise you.

Mixed results


Traditional wisdom says the lower-priced neighborhoods have the most room to grow. But San Francisco real estate regularly thumbs its nose at tradition. 2018 was no different.

Among the top 10 areas for year-over-year appreciation, we see both formerly less expensive neighborhoods and neighborhoods that have always been expensive.

For an example of the latter, take Presidio Heights. Here we see a location that was one of the city’s priciest sales in 2017, when the median sale price was $3.610 million. Yet based on 40 transactions, Presidio Heights prices grew almost 25 percent year-over-year, landing at a median of $4.5 million.


Pricey performance 

Neighborhoods with “heights” or “wood” in them are among S.F.’s most expensive, having established themselves early in the city’s history as wealthy enclaves.

Some of these traditionally pricey neighborhoods like Presidio Heights (up 24.58 percent), Sea Cliff (up 11.11 percent) and St. Francis Wood (up 3.81 percent) all gained in sales price.

Meanwhile, Pacific Heights, despite hosting the most expensive sale of the year (2920 Broadway closed in October for $39 million), posted a decline in price — down 7.9 percent from 2017.

Clarendon Heights is also down, 14.48 percent. This is the steepest drop of any neighborhood on the list.

The biggest positive gain, year-over-year

Lone Mountain is 2018′s biggest winner in terms of appreciation. It demonstrates that sometimes a less pricey neighborhood will experience more dramatic growth since there’s room to grow in the first place. In 2017, Lone Mountain recorded a median sale of $1.385 million. In 2018, based on 16 transactions, that median increased an eye-popping 57.40 percent.

Now the median for Lone Mountain sits at $2.18 million.

Mt. Davidson Manor and Ingleside Terrace also gained considerable appreciation: 27.23 percent and 25.36 percent, respectively.

The gallery above offers more in-depth infographics from the PropertyShark study used to compose this article, as well as a few of the homes sold in SF’s most (and least) appreciated neighborhoods for 2018.


What’s on tap for 2019? Now’s the time to make your predictions. With San Francisco, anything goes.

Anna Marie Erwert writes from both the renter and new buyer perspective, having (finally) achieved both statuses. She focuses on national real estate trends, specializing in the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest. Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaMarieErwert


Article source: https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/San-Francisco-real-estate-2018-biggest-gains-13475071.php

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Making house-razing developer squirm: It feels so good

There are moments when the symbolic aspect of architecture, a structure’s power to embody larger aspirations or fears, becomes impossible to ignore.

We are seeing one such moment in the reaction to the demolition and possible resurrection of the Largent House, architect Richard Neutra’s once-modest and much-altered house on the slopes of Twin Peaks.

It was built in 1936 as a four-room home for a teacher and artist. It was razed in the fall of 2017 by construction workers for the owner, a developer who lives in Florida. San Francisco’s City Planning Commission now insists that it be rebuilt to look as it did on day one.

As a blow for historic preservation or the city’s architectural heritage, the decree is a feeble gesture at best. Look on it instead as an act of cultural defiance. There might be better ways to make the point that builders shouldn’t be rewarded for a cavalier leveling of the landscape, but it’s hard to imagine one that would provide such visceral satisfaction.

“What it’s saying is, ‘You can’t just come in and tear down historic buildings by important architects,’” said Mitchell Schwarzer, a professor in visual studies at California College of the Arts and author of “Architecture of the San Francisco Bay Area: History and Guide.” “‘We’re going to make you rebuild.’ This is a statement for the future.”

The unlikely object of attention is one of the city’s five residential buildings designed in the 1930s by Neutra, who grew up in Vienna but made his career in Los Angeles. The now-gone Largent House at 49 Hopkins Ave. on Twin Peaks was the first. The other four, still intact, range from an easy-to-miss duplex on Russian Hill to a big, boxy, balconied duplex that hugs the crest of Telegraph Hill.

Neutra’s work was neither as photogenic as Frank Lloyd Wright’s nor as distinctive as Mies van der Rohe’s. But he was one of America’s leading modern architects, the subject of a cover profile in Time magazine in 1948 in which he proclaimed, “I want every house I build to be a stepping stone to the future.”

If so, the Largent House was a modest step: Neutra didn’t have it photographed or publicized. Plans for the house are among Neutra’s papers at UCLA, but they have not been published. The house has gone through so many changes since 1959 that the city determined in 2014 that it was not a historic resource.

 Making house razing developer squirm: It feels so good

“Altered beyond recognition,” was the succinct verdict in Thomas Hines’ “Richard Neutra and the Search for Modern Architecture,” published in 2005.

Barbara Lamprecht, author of 2010’s “Neutra: Complete Works,” described the Largent House as important because of the architect’s use of wood siding, and how he “harnessed the existing vernacular of San Francisco” in what then was a startling modern design.

But she has never seen images of the building in its original form. And when Lamprecht traveled to the Bay Area to research her book, her reaction to seeing the altered house at 49 Hopkins was “sadness,” she said this month. “When you take a house and add to it in a way that misunderstands the house so profoundly, that’s sad.”

So why the fuss over 49 Hopkins’ demolition?

Specific circumstances, and larger tensions.

According to the presentation by owner Ross Johnston and his team at a Planning Commission meeting Dec. 13, it was all an unfortunate mistake. Johnston had purchased the house and a set of approved expansion plans so that, supposedly, his family could relocate from Florida to San Francisco. The contractor and his crew were on-site when they discovered such hazardous conditions that an immediate demolition was required for “life-safety reasons,” according to attorney Justin Zucker.

The Planning Commission didn’t buy it — pointing out, for starters, that all the crew had to do with regard to perceived dangers was to leave the site and call the Department of Building Inspection.

Johnston, meanwhile, appeared in a recent online real estate video — since taken down — in which he happily talked development strategies but said nothing about a move to the West Coast. Quite the opposite: He said he intends to raise his family in central Florida.

Nor is this an isolated incident.

Across San Francisco, houses are dismembered in defiance of approved plans, with permit changes filed after the fact and developers insisting the prior home was in such poor condition that they had no other option. The culprits include Troon Pacific, fined $400,000 after buying a Willis Polk-designed home on Russian Hill, then tearing it down to erect what the developer claimed was a “historically accurate replica.”

Troon Pacific paid $4.5 million for the house. The redo, now a 9,500-square-foot estate complete with seven bathrooms and a two-story subterranean art gallery, went on the market in October with an asking price of $45 million.

Such dubious transformations are magnified by the legal ones seen from Glen Park to Corona Heights, and in Bay Area neighborhoods beyond San Francisco. Houses in desirable settings lacking historic protections or zoning controls are replaced by ones several times larger, at costs that regular working people cannot conceive.

In this context, Johnston’s protestations of simply wanting to build a 3,960-square-foot family home ring hollow. The crackdown by planning commissioners is seen by many as a deserved comeuppance.

“I think they’re doing the right thing — something as onerous as that (a rebuild) is what’s needed,” said Schwarzer, the California College of the Arts professor. “People in cities like San Francisco feel that we are under assault, that our cities are changing beyond recognition.”

This view is echoed by Thompson Mayes, author of “Why Old Places Matter” and senior counsel for the National Trust for Historic Preservation.

 Making house razing developer squirm: It feels so good

“I’m a practicing attorney, and this seems like the perfect remedy for an illegal demolition,” Mayes said.

Not that Mayes expects a replica to somehow bring Neutra’s spirit back to life.

“You shouldn’t try to pretend this is a new old thing. It would be a reconstruction, but one that acknowledges older values,” Mayes said. “What’s more important than the specific work of architecture is the sense of place more generally.”

That’s assuming the Planning Commission’s strong stand doesn’t waver. Or that Johnston doesn’t fight back in court and win. The commission decision requires Johnston to rebuild the house — not as it was when he bought it, but to its 1936 dimensions. Attorneys could challenge the commission’s legal right to make such a sweeping edict.

If the house indeed was rebuilt as originally intended, it wouldn’t be a first. For instance, St. Mark’s Campanile on the Piazza San Marco in Venice collapsed in 1902 and was promptly rebuilt as if the year again was 1513.

Of course, Largent House isn’t the equal of St. Mark’s. Or Dresden’s Frauenkirche, a Baroque masterpiece completed in 1743 and reborn in 2005 after Allied bombers leveled it in 1945.

Another solution in San Francisco might be to let Johnston build his house on Hopkins Avenue however he desires. With a catch: When he sells it, all revenue above the $1.7 million he paid in 2017 would go to the city’s Historic Preservation Fund, to be spent on architectural surveys and the research of possible landmarks.

This type of penalty might deter other builders tempted to raze first and apologize later. It also would have benefits throughout the city. But let’s be honest: It wouldn’t be nearly as much fun.

John King is The San Francisco Chronicle’s urban design critic. Email: jking@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @johnkingsfchron

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Making-house-razing-developer-squirm-It-feels-so-13486716.php

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3 charts suggest housing ‘bubble trouble’ with a tech meltdown ‘yet to come’

Finding an affordable place to live in the tech-rich Bay Area isn’t easy these days, but it sure seems to be getting easier — a lot easier. That is assuming Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog has it right.

“It’s high time to unload houses and condos in Silicon Valley and San Francisco,” Richter wrote. “Sellers are now flooding the market with properties.”

In fact, according to data provided by the National Association of Realtors, he points out inventory has more than doubled from a year ago.

Just take a look at this chart:

525fd MW GZ668 USSili 20181204144102 NS 3 charts suggest housing ‘bubble trouble’ with a tech meltdown ‘yet to come’

As the chart shows, the number of active listings has risen in each of the past three months, and now we’re at levels not seen since 2014.

Richter says the red bars signal “bubble trouble” in the housing market. Now, we’ve got buyers refusing to participate in the bidding wars that have been a hallmark of the red-hot sector for years.

“They see the prices and they do the math with higher mortgage rates, and they walk,” Richter said. “So, motivated sellers have to do something to move the properties. And they started cutting prices.”

And that brings us to chart #2, which shows the number of properties for sale with price cuts has exploded by over 400% year over year.

4c145 MW GZ669 USSili 20181204144701 NS 3 charts suggest housing ‘bubble trouble’ with a tech meltdown ‘yet to come’

Which, obviously impacts media asking prices, as chart #3 shows:

4c145 MW GZ670 USSili 20181204145002 NS 3 charts suggest housing ‘bubble trouble’ with a tech meltdown ‘yet to come’

The median asking price peaked in May was at $1,369,200 and has since fallen by $132,100 or by nearly 10%, to $1,237,100, Richter wrote.

“After years of blaming the surging home prices in the area on a shortage of inventory for sale,” he said, “the industry is suddenly faced with all kinds of inventory coming out of the woodwork, just as sales are slowing and as mortgage rates are rising, while the affordability crisis bites the market.”

Richter warns that what’s especially worrisome about this trend is that the tech boom is still, for the most part, thriving. No real signs of hiring slowdowns or layoffs, and the tech start-up market is also going strong, he says.

“Though share prices of local companies such as Google-parent Alphabet Inc.

GOOG, -2.96%

Apple

AAPL, -3.89%

Facebook

FB, -6.33%

and many others have taken a big hit since the summer, we’re still far from a classic tech meltdown,” he said. “That is yet to come.”

And then what happens to the housing market?

4c145 shawnLanglois 480 3 charts suggest housing ‘bubble trouble’ with a tech meltdown ‘yet to come’

Shawn Langlois is an editor and writer for MarketWatch in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @slangwise.

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Article source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-charts-that-suggest-bubble-trouble-in-housing-with-a-tech-meltdown-yet-to-come-2018-12-04

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