San Francisco housing bubble risk down—but still worrisome

The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) released its annual Global Real Estate Bubble Index Monday, ranking San Francisco as one of the most overpriced cities in the world. It also says that SF is the U.S. city in the greatest danger of a housing bubble.

SF’s index score for 2019 came in at 1.15. A score of 1.00 means that the firm’s analysts consider a metro area’s homes fairly priced, but a score of 1.5 or higher means they might be dangerously overpriced.

While San Francisco’s current score is far from ideal, it’s much lower than the 1.44 from 2018 and 1.26 from 2017.

Of the US metropolitan areas in the 20-city ranking, SF still receives the worst marks for being overpriced. But in global terms, the city can’t compare to the likes of Munich (2.01), Amsterdam (1.84), or Toronto (1.86).

The index notes that “valuations in Vancouver, San Francisco, Stockholm, and Sydney have fallen sharply” over the past 12 months, driving down the potential for bubble-making conditions.

The UBS index is designed to “track the risk of property price bubbles in global cities” by examining variables like the rate of property values relative to incomes and gauging which cities run the greatest risk of overvaluing homes and inviting a price bubble.

However, this is tricky work: As UBS acknowledges, the existence of a bubble “cannot be proven unless it bursts,” and the index only looks at patterns rather than making solid (and impossible) predictions.

Last week, Orange County-based data firm Core Logic released its monthly Bay Area real estate analysis, reporting that the number of homes sold in San Francisco in August declined nine percent year over year—from 466 to 424—while the median price appreciated 2.9 percent to $1.35 million.

Note that those figures cover both condos and single-family residences.

The California Association of Realtors estimates that for only single-family homes in SF, the year-over-year price climbed 3.4 percent in August to a little more than $1.6 million, while the number of sales compared to that same time last year dropped 9.3 percent.

Article source: https://sf.curbed.com/2019/10/2/20894923/sf-housing-bubble-risk-prices-2019-index-homes

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5 Okta’s Real Estate Guru On Where Bay Area And Global Tenancy Heads Now San Francisco

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As vice president of global workplace services for Okta, a publicly traded, San Francisco-based cloud software company, Armen Vartanian has to look ahead.

What he sees, starting with the San Francisco Bay Area but heading to most major markets, is an amalgam of new software capabilities, macroeconomic factors and demographic trends changing the way companies operate.

“A number of things are shifting,” said Vartanian, who will be one of several panelists at Bisnow’s Bay Area State of Office event Sept. 26.

“We have an antiquated practice of hiring people where our office locations are, but with the housing supply fixed and transit infrastructure not supporting population growth, you get this imbalance of cost of living to wages,” he said. “We’re enabling our employees to work in a far more flexible environment.”

Millennials, who Vartanian said tend to value flexibility in work, will account for 75% of the global workforce by 2025. Okta’s workforce is 60% millennials, and 30% of its employees work remotely, Vartanian said.

Fewer employees in offices means less real estate to pay for, and is partially a result of an intensifying cost-wages imbalance. But Vartanian said remote work also stems from a preference for flexibility shared by many of the 70% of Okta employees still working in an office.

As a result, Okta, which takes up 210K SF across 10 floors at 100 First St., builds its offices for what Vartanian calls “dynamic work,” which is meant to give workers flexibility from within the office. “That means providing a variety of environments from which to work in an office rather than just one desk, and having the infrastructure to get your job done, allocating less square footage to desks,” he said. 

At 100 First St., less square footage going to desks allows room for more attractive amenities, like Okta’s fitness facilities and speak-easy bar, but also more flexible workspace areas.

Relatively new products like Slack‘s workplace messaging, video conferencing and various cloud-based offerings allow for a de-emphasis on traditional desk or benching systems. “For this first time in history, there’s this stack of core technologies that’s available to enterprises to get work done anywhere,” Vartanian said.

In a wider sense, the need for flexibility is also affecting important leasing decisions by large companies, especially in the Bay Area, he said.

Pointing to his time as global head of real estate for LinkedIn, Vartanian thinks more companies will pursue bifurcated and trifurcated headquarters as they seek nodes both in S.F. and the South and East Bays. As a pioneer in this strategy, LinkedIn has a significant office presence in both San Francisco, with all 450K SF of 222 Second St., and the South Bay, with a 1.1M SF HQ redevelopment recently approved by the city of Mountain View.

Vartanian brought the same strategy to Okta soon after he joined in 2015. The company currently has 40K SF at 300 Park Ave. in San Jose, where it originally leased 20K SF in 2016.

“Infrastructure can’t support the growth in population and jobs in the area, and you have fixed constraints on office development,” he said. “San Jose has done a really good job of opening that up, but with San Francisco and Prop M caps, there’s not going to be a lot of new commercial office development here.”

In addition to driving more diffuse headquarters, San Francisco’s lack of space is also leading businesses to decide buying rather than renting is the more sound long-term decision. Vartanian thinks this trend — currently led by Kaiser, Salesforce and Juul, according to San Francisco Chronicle reporting earlier this week — will continue. 

“With rents rising, I think you’ll see companies thinking more of owning versus leasing, especially in strategic locations,” he said. 

Article source: https://www.bisnow.com/san-francisco/news/office/the-life-of-a-publicly-traded-bay-area-tech-tenant-100853

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SF Giants unveil plan for a 5-acre ‘constructed ecosystem’ along bay

Now that the San Francisco Giants’ underwhelming season is over, the team has big off-season plans — at least in terms of real estate.

Construction should begin this winter on the first phase of the remake of the team’s parking lot south of McCovey Cove along Third Street, including a 5-acre waterfront park with tide pools open to waders and a bayside lawn capable of holding 5,000 people.

The design being released this week features several landscaped hillocks — and not just to enhance outward views or deflect incoming winds. They’re also intended to serve as buffers to expected sea level rise, part of a larger effort that will include raising the site 5 feet above the existing parking lot.

“My philosophical view is that public space has value and needs to be protected. But we also have to understand the need for the creation of spaces that eventually can be absorbed,” said Kate Orff, whose New York firm Scape is the park’s landscape architect.

The new park design offers the first glimpse of the Giants’ long-delayed 28-acre Mission Rock project, which includes the shoreline and Pier 48 as well as the parking lot. That will be followed within weeks by architectural proposals for four buildings — two office structures and two residential towers — that would join the park in Mission Rock’s first phase of 10.5 acres.

 SF Giants unveil plan for a 5 acre ‘constructed ecosystem’ along bay

By unveiling the public space first, the Giants clearly seek to emphasize what has been a selling point for the huge mixed-use project since the team was awarded the site in 2008.

“We want this to be both a regional attraction and a neighborhood park,” said Jack Bair, the Giants’ executive vice president and leader of the team’s development effort. “Our desire is to make this one of the best urban parks in the United States in terms of size.”

At 5 acres, what’s being billed as China Basin Park would be similar in size to another bayside park now taking shape alongside Chase Center, a half-mile to the south. But the settings are strikingly different.

Where the park by the Warriors’ new arena will look east toward the distant island of Alameda, China Basin Park is directly south of the Giants’ ballpark at the hinge between Mission Creek and the bay. The fast-growing Mission Bay district begins on the other side of Third Street. The downtown skyline rises to the north behind the Bay Bridge.

Orff’s proposed design taps into these different attractions.

Terry Francois Boulevard will end at Pier 48, and the green strip and kid-size ball field along the cove will be removed. In their place would be a series of spaces that begin with a plaza near the Third Street Bridge, followed by a tree-covered hillock and then a central plaza activated in part by a small restaurant.

East of the restaurant would be another hillock, this one grassy, spilling down into a rounded lawn of nearly an acre that would hug the curve of the shoreline.

Closer to the water, an extension of the Bay Trail would line the plazas and lawn. Below it would be the new semi-natural tidal area, as well as a kayak ramp slicing down to McCovey Cove.

Gone would be the rip-rap that now separates land and water — a rubbled boundary dating back to the 19th century, when the historic Mission Bay was filled in to create expansion space for railroad companies and the Port of San Francisco.

“We’re trying to bring a constructed ecosystem to the heart of the urban environment,” said Orff, who in 2017 became the first landscape architect to receive a MacArthur Fellowship, the so-called genius grant.

Specific design details are still in flux, such as the variety of cypress that might dot the periphery of the lawn, and final sign-offs are needed from the port and the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. Still, the Giants want to start clearing the site in January.

The southern half of the existing parking lot will remain in service until the second phase of the project begins. The park and the first four buildings are scheduled to open by 2023.

This winter the work will begin with churning up asphalt along Third Street and then importing dirt to lift the building pads for the first phase roughly 5 feet above the current elevation. The idea is to place future streets and development sites above the state’s projections for where high tides are expected to be by 2100.

If all this sounds complicated, so is the saga of the Giants’ quest to make Mission Rock happen.

Previewing the park

The Giants, Tishman Speyer and the Port of San Francisco will hold an open house at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday at Oracle Park to present the plans for China Basin Park to the public. The entrance to the event is at 2nd and King streets.

The team was one of four bidders for the parking lot when the port held a competition in 2007. No sooner had it been selected as part of a larger development team than the 2008 recession hit, causing the other partners to drop out.

As the economy improved, the Giants dusted off their plans, signing a term sheet with the port in 2013 — the same year that San Francisco passed an initiative requiring voter approval of any project exceeding the existing height limits on port-owned land. The team’s plans call for a variety of heights, including three 240-foot towers, so it went to the ballot and received the voters’ blessing in 2015.

Last year, the New York firm Tishman Speyer joined the Giants as co-developer. The design team includes Jeanne Gang of Chicago, who conceived the corkscrew-like Mira tower that Tishman Speyer is building near the Embarcadero on Folsom Street.

The quest to build Mission Rock began when the Giants’ new manager was Bruce Bochy — three World Series championships ago.

Orff said that key priorities for the site, such as the spacious waterfront green, have endured through all the shifts.

“Our job has been to take those years of discussion and make them manifest in the current vision,” Orff said. “It’s a once-in-a-lifetime site.”

John King is The San Francisco Chronicle’s urban design critic. Email: jking@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @johnkingsfchron

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-Giants-unveil-plan-for-a-5-acre-constructed-14477670.php

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SF Giants unveil plan for a 5-acre ‘constructed eco-system’ along bay

Now that the San Francisco Giants’ underwhelming season is over, the team has big off-season plans — at least in terms of real estate.

Construction should begin this winter on the first phase of the remake of the team’s parking lot south of McCovey Cove along Third Street, including a 5-acre waterfront park with tide pools open to waders and a bayside lawn capable of holding 5,000 people.

The design being released this week features several landscaped hillocks — and not just to enhance outward views or deflect incoming winds. They’re also intended to serve as buffers to expected sea level rise, part of a larger effort that will include raising the site 5 feet above the existing parking lot.

“My philosophical view is that public space has value and needs to be protected. But we also have to understand the need for the creation of spaces that eventually can be absorbed,” said Kate Orff, whose New York firm Scape is the park’s landscape architect.

The new park design offers the first glimpse of the Giants’ long-delayed 28-acre Mission Rock project, which includes the shoreline and Pier 48 as well as the parking lot. That will be followed within weeks by architectural proposals for four buildings — two office structures and two residential towers — that would join the park in Mission Rock’s first phase of 10.5 acres.

 SF Giants unveil plan for a 5 acre ‘constructed eco system’ along bay

By unveiling the public space first, the Giants clearly seek to emphasize what has been a selling point for the huge mixed-use project since the team was awarded the site in 2008.

“We want this to be both a regional attraction and a neighborhood park,” said Jack Bair, the Giants’ executive vice president and leader of the team’s development effort. “Our desire is to make this one of the best urban parks in the United States in terms of size.”

At 5 acres, what’s being billed as China Basin Park would be similar in size to another bayside park now taking shape alongside Chase Center, a half-mile to the south. But the settings are strikingly different.

Where the park by the Warriors’ new arena will look east toward the distant island of Alameda, China Basin Park is directly south of the Giants’ ballpark at the hinge between Mission Creek and the bay. The fast-growing Mission Bay district begins on the other side of Third Street. The downtown skyline rises to the north behind the Bay Bridge.

Orff’s proposed design taps into these different attractions.

Terry Francois Boulevard will end at Pier 48, and the green strip and kid-size ball field along the cove will be removed. In their place would be a series of spaces that begin with a plaza near the Third Street Bridge, followed by a tree-covered hillock and then a central plaza activated in part by a small restaurant.

East of the restaurant would be another hillock, this one grassy, spilling down into a rounded lawn of nearly an acre that would hug the curve of the shoreline.

Closer to the water, an extension of the Bay Trail would line the plazas and lawn. Below it would be the new semi-natural tidal area, as well as a kayak ramp slicing down to McCovey Cove.

Gone would be the rip-rap that now separates land and water — a rubbled boundary dating back to the 19th century, when the historic Mission Bay was filled in to create expansion space for railroad companies and the Port of San Francisco.

“We’re trying to bring a constructed ecosystem to the heart of the urban environment,” said Orff, who in 2017 became the first landscape architect to receive a MacArthur Fellowship, the so-called genius grant.

Specific design details are still in flux, such as the variety of cypress that might dot the periphery of the lawn, and final sign-offs are needed from the port and the Bay Conservation and Development Commission. Still, the Giants want to start clearing the site in January.

The southern half of the existing parking lot will remain in service until the second phase of the project begins. The park and the first four buildings are scheduled to open by 2023.

This winter the work will begin with churning up asphalt along Third Street and then importing dirt to lift the building pads for the first phase roughly 5 feet above the current elevation. The idea is to place future streets and development sites above the state’s projections for where high tides are expected to be by 2100.

If all this sounds complicated, so is the saga of the Giants’ quest to make Mission Rock happen.

Previewing the park

The Giants, Tishman Speyer and the Port of San Francisco will hold an open house at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday at Oracle Park to present the plans for China Basin Park to the public. The entrance to the event is at 2nd and King streets.

The team was one of four bidders for the parking lot when the port held a competition in 2007. No sooner had it been selected as part of a larger development team than the 2008 recession hit, causing the other partners to drop out.

As the economy improved, the Giants dusted off their plans, signing a term sheet with the port in 2013 — the same year that San Francisco passed an initiative requiring voter approval of any project exceeding the existing height limits on port-owned land. The team’s plans call for a variety of heights, including three 240-foot towers, so it went to the ballot and received the voters’ blessing in 2015.

Last year, the New York firm Tishman Speyer joined the Giants as co-developer. The design team includes Jeanne Gang of Chicago, who conceived the corkscrew-like Mira tower that Tishman Speyer is building near the Embarcadero on Folsom Street.

The quest to build Mission Rock began when the Giants’ new manager was Bruce Bochy — three World Series championships ago.

Orff said that key priorities for the site, such as the spacious waterfront green, have endured through all the shifts.

“Our job has been to take those years of discussion and make them manifest in the current vision,” Orff said. “It’s a once-in-a-lifetime site.”

John King is The San Francisco Chronicle’s urban design critic. Email: jking@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @johnkingsfchron

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-Giants-unveil-plan-for-a-5-acre-constructed-14477670.php

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Mexican Tycoon Arrested When Boat Kills Son in San Francisco Bay

A member of one of Mexico’s wealthiest families was arrested on manslaughter charges after his 11-year-old son died on a family boating trip in the San Francisco Bay, police said Monday.

Javier A. Burillo, 57, was arrested Sunday at his multimillion-dollar home in the bay front community of Belvedere on suspicion of vehicular manslaughter with a vessel, willful harm or injury to a child and operating a boat while under the influence, Tiburon Police Chief Michael Cronin said.

Burillo was driving the boat with his two sons, aged 11 and 27, aboard on Sunday. Both boys fell off the boat in open waters near Angel Island, north of San Francisco, Cronin said. Investigators believe the boys were thrown overboard when the boat hit a wave, said Cronin, who declined to discuss any other details at a news conference Monday.

He said Burillo helped bring the two back aboard and transported them to the Corinthian Yacht Club in Tiburon, where the 11-year-old boy was pronounced dead.

Cronin said Burillo was also the one who called authorities around 7 p.m. Sunday.

Property records show Burillo’s full name is Javier Burillo Azcarraga, a wealthy property developer known for lavish hotels and restaurants throughout Mexico.

Cronin declined to discuss Burillo’s links to the Azcarraga family, which founded Grupo Televisa SA, a media empire that produces Spanish-language television programming seen across Latin America and dominates news coverage in Mexico.

“I know him as Javier Burillo,” Cronin said, adding that the developer is a well-known and liked member of the Tiburon-Belvedere community. Cronin wouldn’t confirm his full name.

Burillo’s older son had cuts to his leg and was transported to a hospital. He spoke to investigators but Cronin wouldn’t say what he told them.

“It’s a tragedy. We’re all heartsick about it. The community is shocked,” he said.

Online jail records indicate he was released on $1 million bail Monday afternoon.

U.S. property records show Burillo’s Marin County home was purchased in 2004 for $10.2 million. U.S. records show he and his wife, Rose, also own properties in San Diego and Sausalito.

A New York Times story about his February 1989 wedding to Alejandra Aleman, the daughter of late Mexican President Miguel Aleman, said he owned Casa de Campo, a resort and restaurant in Cuernavaca, the Hotel Ritz in Acapulco, and other real-estate holdings.

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Article source: https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Boy-Dies-Hit-by-Boat-San-Francisco-Bay-560489371.html

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