Bay Area In 2010s: Soaring Real Estate Prices Ending The California Dream

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — Located on a nice, quiet Daly City neighborhood street, the 1,570-square foot, three-bedroom, two-bath house at 872 N Mayfair Ave. would be considered a nice starter home in much of the nation.

But it’s actually a poster child for the crazy skyward spiral of Bay Area home prices over the last 10 years.

For many, it’s all become too much and they have relocated elsewhere or even been driven to living on the street or in RVs and cars. San Francisco’s homeless problem has drawn nationwide attention all the way to the Trump White House.

For others, the soaring costs have forced them to buy homes located hours from their offices, in far-flung towns that were once rural farmlands but are now Bay Area suburbs. The eastward exodus has given rise to a mind-numbing affliction known as super commuting.

According to Zillow, 872 N Mayfair Ave. was valued at $649,100 in 2010. When it went onto the market in 2019, the same home was commanding a $1.2 million pricetag.

d90ae may fair ave home Bay Area In 2010s: Soaring Real Estate Prices Ending The California DreamZillow photo

Santa Clara residents Ashley Joyce, her husband and their one-year old daughter have moved back to their native Ohio after three years in the Golden State, their California dream having come to an end.

“There’s a lot of heartache that we are leaving a place that we love, but ultimately we know it’s the right choice,” Ashley told KPIX 5 as she prepared for her move in July.

The Joyce family was not alone by any means. A survey by the Bay Area Council polled 1,000 residents from all nine Bay Area counties and found leaving the region was top of the mind for many.

Santa Clara County, home to Silicon Valley, had the highest number of people looking for a new address outside the Bay Area.

“It’s too expensive, it’s too expensive for everyone, to have a normal life, the traffic is terrible,” Erica Sanchez of Santa Clara told KPIX 5, citing the top two reasons among Bay Area residents who want to leave.

Forty percent of those polled were looking to less expensive pastures. Among millennials, 46 percent were inclined to leave in the next few years.

Sanchez, 30, was among those millennials considering a move for her and her family. She pays $3,500 a month to rent a two bedroom in Santa Clara.

“We’re thinking maybe Tracy, Lathrop, we’ve even thought about Antioch,” Sanchez said.

But even moving became a challenge during the decade as relocation companies struggled at times with a shortage of vans.

“All the van lines are in the same situation,” said Chris Mayer of Macy Movers. “They get a good size load coming out of California and then they are trying to get the drivers back in here with another load. But they don’t come back full, they are partially empty. So it’s tough to make money for the drivers.”

And where were residents going?

According to statistics, the top three destinations for out-of-state moves from the Bay Area were Seattle, Portland and Austin, Texas.

In a recent survey, four of the 10 most expensive zip codes in the United States were found in the Bay Area with the wealthy Peninsula enclave of Atherton leading the way.

According to the 2019 survey by PropertyShark, the 94027 zip code topped the list for the third straight year, with the median sale price rising five percent to $7,050,000.

Home to large estates in the shadow of Silicon Valley’s biggest companies, the median price in Atherton is 63 percent higher than the second most expensive zip code on the list, Sagaponack, New York (median price $4,300,000).

Three other Bay Area zip codes were in the top 10, including Palo Alto’s 94301 (median price $3.52 million), Los Altos’ 94022 ($3.45 million) and Ross’ 94957 ($3.35 million). In last year’s analysis, the Bay Area had five of the top 10 spots.

Not surprising for anyone looking for a new home, the region remained the most expensive area in the country, containing 55 of the 125 most expensive zip codes on PropertyShark’s list.

The Bay Area also had some of the highest rents in the country, with median one-bedroom rent in San Francisco surging to $3,700 a month earlier this year.

San Francisco itself had 13 zip codes on the most expensive list, up from nine zip codes last year. Covering the Marina and Cow Hollow neighborhoods, zip code 94123 was the city’s priciest and 38th most expensive nationally, with a median home price of $2.005 million.

Meanwhile, Santa Clara County had 17 zip codes on the 100 priciest list, followed by San Mateo County with 11, Marin County with 7, Contra Costa County with 4 and Alameda County with 3.

The soaring costs have given rise to many eye-opening offerings. For example, there was a shack in San Francisco’s Potrero Hill neighborhood that hit the market for a jaw-dropping price.

Located on the 800 block of Carolina Street, the home listed for $2.5 million was in such bad shape, potential buyers couldn’t even step foot inside. In fact, it came with a demolition permit.

In pricey Palo Alto, a 11,375-square-foot empty lot at 1628 Bryant St. carried with it a $9 million pricetag.

A burned out home in San Francisco’s Castro District that city officials dubbed a “drug den” sold for $2 million, far above its asking price.

A 640-square-foot cottage in San Francisco’s Cole Valley hit the market for $1.38 million. The cottage on 1537 Cole St. was purchased in 1973 for $37,000 by a Swiss banker.

Other examples of high-priced teardowns include homes in Fremont, Mountain View and San Jose.

Not surprisingly, the hottest neighborhood for home sales wasn’t found in San Francisco or the Silicon Valley as the decade came to an end.

Redfin’s 2019 survey found that home sales in San Carlos’ White Oaks neighborhood had evolved into rabid bidding wars.

The small neighborhood of mostly bungalows built between the 1920s and 1950s was number one on Redfin’s list of 20 most competitive neighborhoods in the country for homebuyers, which means if you’re looking to buy a home in the area, you’ll have to pay up and buy quickly.

“Wow, I didn’t know it was that competitive,” said White Oaks resident Ryan Connolly.

According to Redfin, the neighborhood’s average home price is $1.835 million, with more than 72% of the homes selling above the asking price.

Article source: https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/12/31/bay-area-in-2010s-soaring-real-estate-prices-ending-the-california-dream/

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Market Musings: A decade for the record books in Bay Area real estate

Hello 2020…

Let’s go back to the end of 2009, a decade ago when the subset of people obsessed with Twitter was only slightly bigger than the one comprised of San Franciscans who disliked the sitting U.S. president. Whatever you were doing, I was here, writing about local real estate for The Examiner, studying the effects of a three-year recession that had even the most evangelical real estate bulls rubbing their eyes in panicked confusion.

We’d never seen anything like it, not in our lifetimes. Even when the dotcom industry imploded a decade earlier, leaving both sock puppet dogs and ambitious but fantastical b-to-c fulfillment plan strategies strewn by the side of the road, our homes had still managed to turn double-digit annual value growth. In 2007, I was told by a sage-like industry leader that the Bay Area “had never seen a sustained period of loss” in real estate. Two years later, that old pro sounded like a fool. Little did we know then, as we winced at 67 percent value losses in the Bayview and tried to figure out how to crawl out from under a massive pile of foreclosure statements, that we were on the precipice of the biggest and longest-sustained Bay Area real estate boom yet.

On the eve of 2010, the median price for a single-family home in San Francisco was $751,000, still outrageous by national standards but well below its early 2007 peak. As I write this, that number is close to $1.7 million, per the National Association of Realtors, meaning that property values have doubled in San Francisco in the past decade, as, yes, technology has reshaped The City, but not in a single, decade-long sustained blast of growth. All of those scooter-riding zealots are only part of the story. Tech has had its ups and downs over the past 10 years and real estate has continued to thrive. Grumbles about “affordability” have grown louder, and yet someone is still buying these homes.

There are many factors that go into any kind of market. From where I sit, the biggest factor in local real estate’s seemingly endless wacky growth is also the simplest: supply and demand. The 2010s (and the 2000s, and, frankly, the 1990s) were a time of historic inventory shortage in the Bay Area, with San Francisco leading the way. Inventory, presently down some 15 percent year-over-year, has been scarce for so long that its shortage seems a permanent factor in forecasting the local market. It becomes even more crucial when those tech (and other) jobs ramp up, creating a rush to get to whatever available properties hit the market, creating bidding wars that can leave dazed buyers waking up the following day, feeling like they’ve just experienced a real estate version of “The Hangover.”

And yet, the buyers are satisfied, pleased to “get into the market” at whatever cost, confident that their home will continue to gain value… which is exactly how people felt at the dawn of 2007. Why should now be any different?

This brings us to the new decade. Will 2020, a date that suggests clear vision, signal the beginning of a new “market correction?”

According to Patrick Carlisle, a market analyst at Compass, real estate cycles usually run 5-7 years, which puts us well past time for a change, and yes, we did see a slight slowdown in 2019 accompanied by, until winter, a slight increase in for-sale inventory. The much-ballyhooed Uber IPO didn’t move the needle much, real estate-wise, and if you Google “why don’t Millennials buy houses?” you’ll get about 10 million hits in 0.00003 seconds. Despite this, nobody is predicting a pending crash, not for now anyway. Many experts predict a recession in 2021, but it may not impact local real estate anything like it did in 2008.

San Francisco real estate in 2019 is heady, but it’s not the same Wild West that it was in 2007. For one, people aren’t using pre-IPO stock options for down payments, and for the most part, predatory mortgage lending practices are a distant — and bad ­— memory. Also, as Jeff Andrews of Curbed pointed out earlier this year, the 2008 recession was unique among recessions in that it was actually caused by housing industry shenanigans. Normally, Andrews says, housing fares pretty well during recessionary periods — like it did locally in the wake of the dotcom bust.

The last time experts predicted a real estate crash was 2016. The local median has increased by 30 percent since then. Simply put, it’s hard to predict San Francisco real estate because it behaves in a way matched by no other market, and it’s been doing so for 30 years, long enough for some of us to simply throw our hands up and say, Liz Smith-style, “only in San Francisco, kids, only in San Francisco.”

The Market Musings real estate column appears every other Wednesday. Larry Rosen is a San Francisco-based writer, editor, podcaster and recovering former Realtor. He is a guest columnist and his viewpoint is not necessarily that of the Examiner.

Article source: https://www.sfexaminer.com/news-columnists/market-musings-a-decade-for-the-record-books-in-bay-area-real-estate/

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A California housing crisis mystery: Rents are way up, but eviction filings are way down

Shirley Gibson isn’t quite sure how to feel about these numbers.

As directing attorney of the Legal Aid Society of San Mateo County — which offers legal services to low-income tenants caught between the preposterously priced southern suburbs of San Francisco and the preposterously priced suburbs of Silicon Valley — she’s seen firsthand how California’s housing affordability crisis has overwhelmed her clientele.

Rents in San Mateo County have increased nearly 55% since the start of the decade. A two-bedroom in Redwood City, the county seat, now goes for $3,500, according to data from Apartment List. Strong demand, fueled by the influx of high-income tech workers, means vacancy rates are low.

“I don’t know what a normal housing market is anymore,” said Gibson. “There’s a tush for every seat right now. You can rent any unit you want within a week.”

Theoretically that should have swelled the ranks of tenants needing help in eviction court. Ever-escalating rents should make it harder to pay rent on time, and delinquent payments are the most common reason a landlord sues to remove tenants from their property.

Yet eviction lawsuits against San Mateo County renters from 2010 to 2018 dropped nearly 50%.

“This year is going to be the lowest you’ve ever seen,” said Gibson. “I don’t have a perfect explanation for why that is the case.”

It’s counterintuitive amid a worsening housing crunch, but it’s happening statewide. While the median rent in California increased 23% from 2011 to 2018, the number of times California landlords sued their tenants to evict them dropped by nearly 40% over roughly the same period, according to data collected by UCLA researchers.

Two caveats: Those dropping numbers nonetheless represent a significant number of California renters facing the prospect of a court-ordered eviction — landlords initiated more than 137,000 of them in fiscal year 2017. And there’s no data on evictions that don’t end up in court, although researchers estimate they’re about twice as common as those that do.

Still, the data shows a steep drop in eviction court cases this decade in every sizable county.

“It’s a puzzle that I’m not sure we have an answer to,” said UCLA eviction researcher Kyle Nelson.

Neither academics nor landlords nor tenants can say definitively why. But here are some of their best guesses.

Evictions outside court could be rising, but we lack data to know for sure.

An unfavorable court judgment hangs an enduring legal albatross on renters. In California, evictions stay on a tenant’s rental history for seven years, during which it becomes incredibly difficult to find another place to live.

But eviction lawsuits are one of the few forms of eviction that actually leave a data trail. And that only happens if a renter stays in an apartment after being served with an eviction notice, forcing a landlord to go to court.

Landlords have other options. California doesn’t know how many families move out after a “three days to pay rent or quit” sign is affixed to their door, let alone how many strike “cash for keys” arrangements to leave. (If a renter moves out because the rent is raised, that’s not an eviction).

Eviction researchers say even absent data, there’s good reason to think these undocumented evictions could be on the upswing.

“Say there’s more rent increases and more tenant harassment, and either way a tenant has to move,” said Aimee Inglis, program director with Tenants Together, a statewide renter advocacy group.

Gibson, the San Mateo tenant attorney, says she’s seen a dramatic uptick in “no-fault” evictions over the past decade, even as court cases have declined.

Why have landlords used “no-fault” evictions?

Say a landlord suspects a tenant is dealing drugs on their property, but lacks proof. If the tenant fights that in eviction court, the landlord could very well lose. But if the landlord simply sends a “no-fault” notice that a tenancy will end in two months, the renter is typically out of options.

Renter advocates say landlords often abuse “no fault” evictions to retaliate against tenants who ask for expensive repairs or maintenance.

In 2013, roughly half of the eviction notices clients brought to her legal aid clinic were “no-fault” lease terminations. By 2018, that share had increased to 75% — a more common reason than non-payment of rent.

There’s no statewide data on the number of “no-fault” notices. Reports of their prevalence have surged in recent months because a new state law is about to restrict them. After Jan. 1, most landlords will be required to cite one of several acceptable reasons for evicting a tenant.

It’s partly the economy — but that’s not the whole story.

As the Great Recession ravaged California’s economy and housing market, eviction lawsuits spiked. Banks and corporate landlords frequently served eviction notices to families who lost their homes in foreclosures. The result: nearly 230,000 eviction court cases in fiscal year 2010.

Landlords say eviction lawsuits also increased during that time because the same population most vulnerable to foreclosures — families with shoddy credit histories and incomes too small for their mortgages — were likely to miss rent payments after they moved from foreclosed homes into rentals.

“Inevitably those individuals, with the economy struggling, faced evictions as well,” said Chris Evans, an attorney with the firm Kimball, Tirey and St. John, which represents landlords in more than 15,000 eviction lawsuits a year.

As California’s economy slowly rebounded, eviction cases began their decadelong descent.

Most mysteriously, eviction lawsuits have continued to drop years after the state emerged from recession, even while rents have outpaced gains in renters’ incomes.

Has legal aid for tenants helped?

Tenant groups and landlord lawyers agree that over the last decade, it’s become a lot more expensive to take a renter to court.

“Because of the cost of eviction, landlords really started working to avoid it,” said Evans.

He estimates that a decade ago, his firm’s landlord clients spent under $1,000 to get rid of a tenant who contested an eviction.

Now, if the renter takes the case to a jury trial — an option tenants have increasingly threatened over the last decade on the advice of counsel, says Evans —it costs his clients $10,000 to $15,000. And a jury trial is a gamble for landlords.

As a response to the foreclosure crisis, in 2009 state lawmakers created low-income legal aid pilot programs in several high-cost counties. An independent evaluation found that renters represented by state-funded attorneys were nearly 20% less likely to lose by “default judgment,” where landlords win simply because a renter doesn’t show up to court.

Is technology allowing landlords to better screen tenants?

As recently as a decade ago, the process for screening a rental application was fairly basic. Landlords ran a potential tenant’s credit report.

Now, due to an explosion of third-party renter screening services, landlords can quickly and easily view much more data about prospective renters — whether they pay utility bills on time, whether they pay rent on time, whether they have a prior criminal conviction.

Fueled by technological innovations, the screening services are fairly cheap — $50 gets you a lot of info.

“It’s just a much better picture of a resident’s ability to pay prior to them moving in,” said Cynthia Wray, who’s been in the apartment management industry for nearly three decades.

Corporate landlords and real estate investment trusts, who over the last decade have snapped up a sizable chunk of California rentals, are major users of sophisticated screening services.

Has the state gentrified so much that those at risk of eviction just left?

Possibly. That appears to be exactly what happened in Washington, D.C.

“As D.C. got more expensive, it got too expensive for people to rent if there was any chance they had any financial problem,” said Maya Brennan, senior policy associate at the Urban Institute.

Brennan says it’s more likely these low-income renters are now in more affordable suburbs in Virginia and Maryland.

That logic could extend to California, which for nearly two decades has lost more residents than it has gained from other states — an exodus fueled by Californians making less than $50,000 a year.

Despite lots of national publicity in recent years, eviction research is still in its infancy. Which means a definitive answer for California’s counterintuitive trend may not surface for a while.

“Evictions are incredibly complex, and the world of people thinking about them deeply expanded dramatically over the past couple years,” said Brennan. “But the number of people with enough regionally specific knowledge has actually not increased that much.”

Matt Levin wrote this for CalMatters, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics. This is an abridged version of the full story, which is available at calmatters.org.

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/A-California-housing-crisis-mystery-Rents-are-14937678.php

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Empty Oakland lot with Shen Yun billboard asks $1.69 million


  • 62a74 920x920 Empty Oakland lot with Shen Yun billboard asks $1.69 million

    This empty lot east of Lake Merritt in Oakland is asking $1.695 million.

    This empty lot east of Lake Merritt in Oakland is asking $1.695 million.


    Photo: Courtesy Winkler Real Estate Group

  •  Empty Oakland lot with Shen Yun billboard asks $1.69 million

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This empty lot east of Lake Merritt in Oakland is asking $1.695 million.

This empty lot east of Lake Merritt in Oakland is asking $1.695 million.



Photo: Courtesy Winkler Real Estate Group


Ah, the Bay Area — where even an empty, grassy lot with nothing but a single Shen Yun billboard to decorate it will still cost you $1.695 million. SF Curbed reported on a new listing that appeared this week in Oakland east of Lake Merritt, near Third Avenue and on the edge of Cleveland Heights.

Listed at the nonexistent address of 0 Park Boulevard, you’ll have to provide your own apartment complex — there’s nothing actually there. However, the bare bones property is described in the listing as having “easy access to shopping, restaurants, and the magnificent walking trail around the jewel of Oakland, Lake Merritt!”

According to the listing, the seller has planning and zoning approval for a 10-unit apartment building, and the property is “exempt from rent control for 15 years!” This is in reference to California’s new rent cap law that will take effect in 2020.


RELATED: Mid-Market studio with loft: Guess how much this rents for in San Francisco

Apparently, this same lot sold just in October for a mere $580,000 — albeit without the swanky new permits advertised.

This spot is 4,806 square feet, with an offer of $353 per foot. Meanwhile, building in the Bay Area can cost up to $417 for a single square foot.

Madeline Wells is an SFGATE associate digital reporter. Email: madeline.wells@sfgate.com | Twitter: @madwells22

Article source: https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Empty-Oakland-lot-with-Shen-Yun-billboard-asks-14933309.php

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Single Homeless Moms Get Reprieve On Eviction From Oakland Home

OAKLAND (CBS SF) — A pair of homeless Oakland mothers occupying a vacant home as a housing protest on Thursday was given another four days to make their case.

At a hearing packed by dozens of people who support mothers Dominique Walker, 34, and Sameerah Karim, 41, in their effort to remain living at the house at 2928 Magnolia St., Alameda County Superior Court Judge Patrick McKinney said, “I understand the confusion” and said there seems to have been a lack of notice.

The two single, homeless women who have established the activist group Moms 4 Housing has been living in the home on Magnolia Street since they illegally entered it on November 18th.

The court case, which is just one part of the standoff over an illegally occupied Oakland home, has been continued to next week.  Thursday also reinforced every indication that, whatever the outcome in court, the occupation will go on much longer.

“There is no right way to do a wrong thing,” said Sam Singer, a spokesman for real estate firm Wedgewood. “What these people are doing is the wrong thing.They are bullies, and they are thieves.”

Singer was speaking outside the Hayward Hall of Justice, surrounded by housing activists shouting “sell the house.” Inside the courthouse, a hearing on the pending eviction in Oakland was kicked back to the 30th.

“This was a win,” said Dominique Walker, one of the ‘Moms4Housing’ staying in the Magnolia Street Home. “This was a win today. Will be back on Monday, still fighting. We’re not going anywhere.”

The delay, however, does not change the judge’s tentative ruling that Wedgewood is, in fact, the owner of the home and the eviction is lawful. But this is not just a legal fight, it has also been joined by several Oakland political factions.

“Wedgewood, in particular as a speculator, is driving this housing prices,” Councilwoman Nikki Fortunato-Bas said outside the courthouse. “They have hundreds of properties in Oakland that are vacant that could be used to house people like these women.”

Oakland City Council members and protest supporters again called on Wedgewood to sell the the house through the Oakland Land Trust. When asked why they will not sell the house:

“Because they stole it,” Singer answered. “Who is going to sell a house? They stole this house!”

On Monday, lawyers for Moms4Housing will again make their case. “That housing is a human right,” says attorney Leah Simon-Weisberg.

A judge seems inclined to disagree. So what will come after that?

“I expect them to negotiate with these moms,” says Councilwoman Bas.

“Ultimately, they’re going to get evicted, and it’s unfortunate,” predicted Singer. “Nobody wants to evict these people, but when you steal someone’s home, you get evicted.”

Article source: https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/12/26/single-homeless-moms-get-reprieve-on-eviction-from-oakland-home/

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