The following is the text of
the Federal Reserve Board’s Twelfth District– San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded moderately
during the reporting period of late February into the beginning
of April. Price increases for final goods and services remained
modest overall despite gains for selected commodities, and
upward wage pressures were limited as well. Sales of retail
items and demand for business and consumer services continued to
expand. Manufacturing activity in the District grew further.
Sales of agricultural products were robust, and demand edged up
for natural resource products. Demand for residential and
nonresidential real estate remained subdued. Contacts from
financial institutions reported small but widespread increases
in loan demand.
Wages and Prices
Price inflation for final goods and services was modest during
the reporting period. Although prices remained elevated for an
assortment of raw materials and commodities and rose further for
some, such as oil, the pass-through to final prices was quite
limited, with the noteworthy exceptions of food and gasoline.
For most other retail goods and services, prices continued to be
held down by subdued demand and vigorous competition.
Contacts in most sectors reported that upward wage pressures
remained weak. High unemployment and limited hiring kept
compensation gains at low levels in most regions and sectors,
although significant upward wage pressures were noted for
workers with advanced skills in technology fields. Looking ahead
to the next six months, the reports indicated that wage gains
are likely to pick up somewhat as more businesses eliminate wage
freezes established during the downturn.
Retail Trade and Services
Retail sales continued to improve overall. Traditional
department stores and discount retail chains alike reported
further increases in sales. Similarly, sales revenues rose for
grocers; contacts attributed the gains in part to higher food
prices in addition to increased sales volumes. Despite some
indications of rising appetites for discretionary spending,
consumers remained largely focused on necessities and lower-
priced options across a wide spectrum of products. Retailers of
major appliances and furniture reported that activity remained
subdued. Demand for new automobiles strengthened further,
propelled partly by manufacturers’ rebates and improved
availability of credit. Looking forward, some retail contacts
expressed concern that elevated gasoline prices will reduce
sales of other items.
Demand for business and consumer services rose further. Activity
expanded among providers of transportation services, with gains
in cargo traffic reported for major District seaports. Providers
of professional services, such as law and accounting, reported
modest demand growth. Suppliers of energy services noted further
increases in deliveries to households and businesses, and sales
continued to grow for providers of technology services. Contacts
from several parts of the District reported further growth in
business travel and tourism activity, although Japanese tourist
visits to Hawaii fell significantly following the March 11
earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Demand fell slightly for
providers of health-care services, as some patients reportedly
have been forgoing elective procedures.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity in the District posted further gains
during the reporting period of late February into the beginning
of April. Makers of commercial aircraft and parts reported
modest ongoing growth in new orders, attributed in part to
increased demand from airline companies for aircraft with
greater fuel efficiency. For manufacturers of semiconductors and
other technology products, demand continued to grow, with high
levels of capacity utilization and balanced inventories noted.
Sales rose further for metal fabricators, although contacts
reported minor production challenges arising from constrained
supplies of raw materials. Demand remained especially weak for
manufacturers of wood products, with the exception of firms in
the pulp and paper segment of the industry, which saw increases
in orders and output. Petroleum refiners reported slight gains
in gasoline sales volumes compared with twelve months earlier,
despite the demand constraints arising from higher prices and
poor weather, and capacity utilization rates were up accordingly.
Demand continued to grow for food manufacturers.
Agriculture and Resource-related Industries
Production activity and sales were robust for agricultural
products and grew further for metals and natural resources used
for energy production. Final sales and orders for most
agricultural products, including livestock and a wide variety of
crops, continued to expand. As a result, contacts noted rising
prices and constrained availability for selected inputs,
including fertilizer, seeds, and machinery such as tractors.
District mining activity expanded, as higher prices for assorted
metals have spurred investments in new capacity. Demand for
crude oil was slightly above its level from twelve months
earlier, while extraction activity for natural gas expanded,
increasing supply and causing the price to decline.
Real Estate and Construction
Activity in District residential and nonresidential real estate
markets remained at very low levels overall, albeit with slight
improvement noted in some market segments and areas. The sales
pace for new and existing homes was mixed across the District
but remained very weak overall, and contacts again noted that
the limited availability of nonconforming ?jumbo loans held back
sales of higher-priced homes in some areas. In response to
sluggish sales, new home construction stayed quite subdued.
However, demand for residential rental space grew further in
some areas, and reports noted modest increases in the
construction of apartment buildings. Demand remained weak
overall in commercial real estate markets, as vacancy rates for
office and industrial space remained elevated throughout the
District. However, further gains in leasing activity were noted
for some major markets in the District, particularly in
technology-intensive portions of the San Francisco Bay Area.
Financial Institutions
District banking contacts reported that loan demand was up
compared with the prior reporting period. Demand for commercial
and industrial loans rose perceptibly, as businesses in a
variety of sectors reportedly showed increased interest in
expansionary capital spending. Demand for consumer credit also
grew slightly. The reports indicated that competition among
lenders to extend credit to well-qualified small and medium-
sized businesses has intensified, placing downward pressure on
rates and fees. Overall, however, lending standards remained
somewhat restrictive for most types of consumer and business
loans. Venture capital financing activity and investor interest
continued to grow, particularly for companies focused on
Internet and wireless applications and digital media.
Article source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/u-s-federal-reserve-beige-book-san-francisco-district-text-.html