San Francisco list prices are already among the nation’s highest, but when people are willing to bid more than 75 percent over those list prices, things get a little crazy. And “a little crazy” defines San Francisco’s real estate year well.
Big first quarter spike
In April of this year, San Francisco prices made news for hitting a median of $1.61 million, a double-digit increase from five years back. But then September rolled in, bringing in record slow sales, and with them, lower prices.
What was the overall effect on SF’s 2018 prices?
Charting prices from October of 2017 through closed deals in November of 2018, we see an overall price appreciation of 6.9 percent — these data include all sales types, whether a studio tenancy-in- common or a multi-unit apartment building.
Based on these sales, the new median home price for San Francisco is between $1.350,000 and $1.382,000, according to locally focused sources.
Bidding wars heat to boiling
Such an increase is clearly driven by over-bidding.
The current sale-to-list ratio in San Francisco is 107.4 percent, meaning sellers are not only getting asking price, but well over.
The gallery above displays the year’s top five over-bids. According to data provided by The FrontSteps.com, the biggest over-bid was 75.71 percent. Moving down the list, the fifth-highest was 69.05 percent over-asking.
Clearly, as long as people are willing to bid (and they are: 2018 is littered with sales closing 60 percent or higher over asking), prices can keep climbing.
What’s on tap for 2019? We can’t be sure of exactly how much more real estate will cost than it did in 2018, but we’re pretty sure it won’t cost less.
Anna Marie Erwert writes from both the renter and new buyer perspective, having (finally) achieved both statuses. She focuses on national real estate trends, specializing in the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest. Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaMarieErwert