Just as the country divides itself by championing either Trump or Clinton, so too does it divide itself on how either candidate might affect real estate. Trulia’s newest report looks at election data via a Harris Interactive survey asking “how Americans think Secretary Clinton or Mr. Trump might help/hurt home price growth, and how home prices have fared since the recession in counties where our presumptive nominees claimed victory in the primaries.” And the results? Unexpected.
Not exactly on party lines
We’d expect those who love Trump think his celebrated business acumen translates to great things for American homeowners. Likewise, those who love Clinton would believe her political prowess could positively affect home values. But instead, nearly half (47 percent) of Democrats polled said housing prices would likely rise if Trump were elected, compared to just 24 percent of Democrats who said the same about Clinton.
Republicans also defected in this poll: “38 percent of Republicans said home prices would rise if Clinton were elected; 33% said the same should Trump be elected.”
- Independents were more likely (34 percent to 28 percent) to foresee rising housing prices under Trump than Clinton.
- 44 percent of unmarried respondents and 46 percent of renters also saw higher housing prices under Trump, compared to 26 percent in each category for Clinton
- Millennials and younger voters, aged 18-34, were more likely to believe housing prices would rise under Trump vs. Clinton, by a margin of 49 percent to 26 percent
- Overall, when asked what would likely happen to home prices if either Trump or Clinton were elected, 39 percent of Americans said prices would rise a little or a lot if Trump was elected compared to 29 percent for Clinton
Are prices going up a positive thing?
Eight years ago, housing and the economy were the main talking points of Obama and Romney because millions of homeowners were going through foreclosure.“Today, the housing market and US economy look much healthier, and as such, candidates have turned their attention to more popular issues such as immigration, gun control, and national security,” said Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia’s chief economist. McLaughlin added that there has been some position-taking on housing, such as the $25 billion portion of Clinton’s $125 billion Economic Revitalization Initiative targeted towards facilitating homeownership “among households that have been traditionally underserved.”
Trump, meanwhile, has spoken about eliminating the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development – the primary federal source of funding for affordable housing.
In this light, the data could be read that respondents don’t think housing (already becoming over-priced for many Americans) will be more affordable under Trump’s presidential plan– which might not, in some respondents minds, be a good thing.
Post-recession and the primaries
Trulia also included data (see gallery above) showing that “In the primaries, housing recovery was stronger where Trump and Clinton lost.” In other words, Trulia found that wages, home price growth, and employment numbers have signaled more prosperity in the counties where Clinton and Trump lost their respective primary battles.
During the primary season, both candidates performed better in counties where housing prices had risen only slightly since deepest part of the recession – when unemployment was at its highest level – the second quarter of 2009. For instance:
- In counties that Clinton won during primary season, combined housing prices rose 3.1 percent. In counties she lost, almost all to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, prices rose 7.1 percent
- Likewise, Trump won counties that saw combined housing price appreciation of 4.2 percent. He lost counties that had a combined price increase of 6.6 percent
- Trump tended to lose in counties where employment, or job growth, was strong in the recovery
Okay readers, now we’re polling you: what will real estate loon like under President Trump? Under President Clinton? The comment section will act as our own informal survey.
Anna Marie Erwert writes from both the renter and new buyer perspective, having (finally) achieved both statuses. She focuses on national real estate trends, specializing in the San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest. Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaMarieErwert