Here’s What Is Fueling the Housing Boom in Vegas

Investors swarmed into the Las Vegas market, much like they did in Phoenix, AZ, using all-cash private equity funds to buy distressed properties in bulk. As competition grew and supplies shrunk, prices took off. While still well below the peak, the median home price is up 24 percent in Las Vegas from a year ago, according to Applied Analysis. Part of that is a shift in the mix of homes selling, as fewer distressed homes come to market. The new dynamic has kept regular move-up buyers on the sidelines and new listings historically low.

(Read More: Home Buyers Are Back, but Where Are the Houses?)

“What’s holding people back from buying a property is a fear of selling their property and not being able to find one. That’s what the problem is,” noted Herrera.

The Las Vegas market is being fueled by investors, but even the investors can’t find the great bargains anymore. While the economy has improved some, the drop in foreclosures is really due to a new law that went into effect in Nevada last year; it criminalizes faulty foreclosures. Banks have therefore tried to do more short sales and loan modifications. Foreclosures in Nevada dropped 36 percent in 2012 from the previous year, according to RealtyTrac, but the distress is still there.

“People in Las Vegas talk about shadow inventory to the point where nobody really wants to talk about it anymore, said Mike Brunson, a local appraiser. “People will argue and say it isn’t, but I can name a dozen people off the top of my head who have been in their houses for over three years without a payment.”

Brunson called Las Vegas the Titanic of the real estate market. It was once thought unsinkable, and even now that the worst is over, he still thinks the market is on a well-provisioned life raft, not on solid ground.

“The only thing that concerns me is that we have been here before and the market itself is not what is driving the price increases. It’s not that we have new employers coming in and creating tens of thousands of new jobs that are leading to people buying new houses. It’s ‘Las Vegas is on sale,’ and investors are buying up everything they can in the used market.

Whatever the cause, the result is new construction and new life breathed into the nation’s home builders.

“There’s been a lot of talk about shadow inventory. It’s gone on for years, and the reality is there’s not enough inventory out there to meet demand today. Demand has increased, certainly our buyers see that, and we’re getting a lot of buyers because of that,” argued Andrews, whose company is, he said, building 150 percent more homes than a year ago.

(Read More: Home Buyers Are Back, but Where Are the Houses?)

Brunson acknowledged there is no question the demand is real. The sales are real. But he still worries about the fundamentals, such as the slow economic growth and the fact that so much of the funding for new home sales is coming from low down payment, government-backed mortgages.

“We have been here before,” said Brunson.

What remains to be seen is if history will repeat itself or if this recovery is as unique as the collapse that preceded it.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100522314

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