(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

While inventories improved slightly in August on a national basis, up 0.4 percent month-to-month, they are still down 6.3 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

While home sales were higher in August, the Realtors said it was, “the last hurrah,” as several indicators showed buyer traffic slowed dramatically at the end of the summer.

“The sharpest falloff in the HousingPulse Homebuyer Traffic Indexes was seen among current homeowners, the largest group of home purchasers in this year’s housing market. The first-time homebuyer group also saw a decline in its traffic index,” according to a new report from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

The fall and winter months are traditionally the slowest in the housing business, and weaker demand will affect prices. Sales of newly built homes have not exactly been gangbusters, and new orders at both Lennar and KB Home were weaker than expected. Make no mistake, underlying demand exists, it’s just a question of when it emerges in force.

So far, even weak demand has pushed prices higher, again, due to historically low supply.

(Read more: Real estate’s new frontier: Crowdfunding)

“Construction of single-family homes has been depressed since late 2007, while the U.S. population has increased by more than 12 million over that time,” said economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight. “Since underlying demand is, by our estimate, running at a rate nearly twice that of housing completions, the shortages are likely to get larger before getting smaller.”

This means that home-price gains, as measured by the Case-Shiller indexes, are likely to remain strong for some time, even if they retreat some from the current pace.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101058777

Based on the change in mortgage rates from early May to today, the average buyer would have to pay 13 percent more in monthly payments, including taxes and insurance, according to Mark Hanson, a California-based analyst. They also have to earn 10 percent more in income to qualify for a loan based on a typical qualifying debt-to-income ratio of 45 percent.

“These are huge moves especially considering—when purchasing a house using a mortgage—most people buy based on ‘monthly payment and the maximum allowable debt-to-income ratio.’ This means first-timer share will fall even further. They are already at a multiyear low even with record-low rates,” said Hanson.

(Read More: As Prices Rise, Banks Repossess More Homes)

First-time homebuyer participation was at just 29 percent, according to the Realtors, a five-year low. Without these buyers, as investors pull back and prices rise, home sales will likely lose steam. June’s report on pending home sales, or signed contracts in May, will tell just how much rising rates are impacting sales. That report will be released Thursday, June 27.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100831431

Article source: http://sf.curbed.com/archives/2013/03/08/class_is_now_in_session_open_thread_for_real_estate_questions.php