Treasury’s data shows that the longer a homeowner remains in HAMP, the more likely he or she is to redefault out of the program. As of March 31, 2013, the oldest HAMP permanent modifications, from the third and fourth quarter of 2009, are redefaulting at a rate of 46.1 percent and 39.1 percent. HAMP permanent modifications from 2010 also had high redefault rates, ranging from 28.9 percent to 37.6 percent.

The report directs Treasury to study why these modifications are failing and to come up with some kind of early warning system in order to help borrowers.

(Read More: Despite Rising Demand, Some Builders Slow Production)

“Redefaulted HAMP modifications often inflict great harm on already struggling homeowners when any amounts previously modified suddenly come due,” according to the report.

One of the architects of HAMP, Michael Barr, former Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions at the U.S. Treasury, is not surprised at the numbers.

“The redefault rates are still below current industry averages, and below the conservative case we used in program design, which was the then-existing rate of 50 percent,” said Barr.

Troubles with HAMP are not new. Initially it did not offer principal reduction on loan modifications, and so far, under a revised HAMP, just 82,813 borrowers received any principal reduction. Banks doing their own loan modifications have wiped away far more mortgage principal, a strategy that has proven far better results. The nation’s five largest banks were required to write down some principal under the National Mortgage Servicing Settlement signed in early 2012, after the so-called “robo-signing” foreclosure paperwork scandal.

The Treasury need not look far for HAMP’s shortfalls.

(Read More: Mortgage Mods Doomed by Back End Debt)

Back in May of 2012, bank representatives complained that the back end debt-to-income ratios (DTI), (which include all debts upon which a borrower pays) for HAMP modifications were far too high. That is, borrowers were paying far too much of their incomes on debt, and the numbers were only rising.

At the time, mortgage analyst Mark Hanson said, “A 64.3 percent DTI is so far out of scope with the pre-bubble years safe-and-sound 36 percent total DTI — and even typical bubble-years full-doc DTI’s of 50 percent — it is absolutely irresponsible. Servicers are pushing the envelope with respect to getting people to qualify.”

Today Hanson is the least surprised of anyone at the failure of HAMP modifications. “Because if you look at them structurally — sky-high DTI, LTV [loan to value] and low credit score — they make legacy Subprime loans look sane.”

Hanson predicts that these bad modifications will come back to bite the banks and the economy.

(Read More: With Home Listings Low, Spec Building Is Back)

“People read headlines that ‘foreclosures are at 2005 levels’ and cheer. I say the high-risk distressed loans and foreclosures are still out there. They have just been called something different by banks and the government and kicked down the road a few years,” says Hanson.

862,000 homeowners are currently in permanent HAMP modifications; 312,000 have defaulted on permanent modifications. In the next two years, many HAMP modifications will re-set to higher interest rates, and that could produce more defaults.

Banks have been doing more modifications on their own, with these proprietary fixes up 55 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 from the previous year, according to a recent report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Meanwhile HAMP modifications are down 31 percent for the same period.

Given delays in the foreclosure process in several states, and the risky quality of these early HAMP modifications as well as other proprietary modifications done without principal reduction, it is safe to say foreclosures may rise for a time next year before finally falling back to normal levels in the next three to four years.

As home prices rise, more borrowers will come out from underwater on their mortgages, and that will reduce the risk of new defaults, but the pipeline of distress is still long and far from lean.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100674924

“An extension of the tax break is positive for home values by reducing the number of foreclosures and helping more troubled borrowers stay in their homes,” wrote Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Partners. “That means less supply on the market.”

Under a law signed in 2007, debt relief on loan modifications, short sales, and foreclosures were no longer taxable; that break expired at the end of 2012. The fear was that if the tax break was not extended, home owners would not agree to short sales (when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage) because they would then face a tax bill. They would also not agree to principal reduction loan modifications, which have proven to be far more successful than other modifications that leave the principal balance as is.

Under the $25 billion mortgage servicing settlement, borrowers have received $6.3 billion in mortgage principal relief through September, according to the settlement’s monitor, Joseph A. Smith, Jr. The average loan balance reduction, $150,000. Banks completed 13,351 principal reduction loan modifications in November alone, according to Amherst Securities Group, a 62 percent jump from September.

Short sales also surged toward the end of the year, thanks to streamlined procedures and a more aggressive stance by the big banks, again in part due to the mortgage servicing settlement. More than 98 thousand short sales were completed in the third quarter of 2012, according to RealtyTrac.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100349018

“The programs then going forward will provide for similar relief, but I think we have offered principal reduction to all our borrowers — all the people we own, the asset that we can actually offer to that’s been done,” said Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan in an interview last week.

Another report Friday from Lender Processing Services showed a monthly increase in the U.S. loan delinquency rate in November. As it stands now, 7.12 percent of loans are 30-plus days past due, but not yet in foreclosure, and 3.51 percent are in the foreclosure process. Add it up and 5.35 million loans are still in some kind of trouble, according to LPS, as big banks finish their obligations under the settlement.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100335126

Foreclosure activity nationwide has now fallen for 26 straight months on an annual basis, according to RealtyTrac, but the large overhang of distress keeps that drop in perspective.

(Read More: Mortgage Break No Longer Sacred)

“While this metric continues being a mild positive for the builders, we do not see it as a meaningful equity driver, but instead, just as another positive data point in the early stages of the housing recovery,” writes ISI’s Stephen East, who also notes that newly started foreclosures are at a 71-month low.

Much of that drop is due to aggressive, principal reduction loan modifications by the nation’s five largest banks under the Mortgage Servicing Settlement. They are also ramping up short sales, which have now surpassed sales of foreclosed homes. Those foreclosure mitigation strategies are at risk from the fiscal cliff. If Congress does not extend a tax relief law on this debt forgiveness, which is scheduled to expire at the end of this month, borrowers will likely reject these loan modifications and short sale offers, given that they would then involve a huge tax bill.

(Read More: Best US Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100311070

“The prospect of being taxed on potentially tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional income may motivate more distressed homeowners to forgo a short sale and allow the home to be foreclosed,” said RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist in a release. “Additionally, if the mortgage interest deduction is eliminated due to the fiscal cliff quagmire, it would give many underwater and otherwise distressed homeowners one less reason to hang on to their homes.”

Banks completed 13,351 principal reduction loan modifications in November alone, according to a monthly report from Amherst Securities Group. That’s a 62 percent jump from September. Much of it is thanks to the $25 billion mortgage servicing settlement signed by the nation’s five largest banks early this year over so-called “robo-signing” foreclosure practices.

Banks have already given borrowers $6.3 billion in mortgage principal relief under the settlement, according to a report from its monitor, Joseph A. Smith, released last month. Bank of America recently ramped-up its relief, reporting 30,000 customers were approved or had completed first-lien modifications through September 30 providing $4.75 billion in principal reduction. Borrowers received an average $150,000 slash in loan balances.

(Read More: How ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100285754

(Read More: Mortgage Deduction Is Popular, but Few Claim It)

Nearly one third (1.3 million) of sales in the past twelve months have been distressed, either REO (bank-owned homes) or short sales, according to LPS. That compares to just 226,000 in 2005 when overall home sales were twice the pace they are today.

It doesn’t stop there. The California Homeowners Bill of Rights goes into effect January 1, 2013. Similar legislation in Nevada doubled the foreclosure pipeline over the past year.

Another reason for the drop in new foreclosures may be a surge in loan modifications involving principal reduction. These are also mandated by the mortgage servicing settlement. Principal reduction modifications jumped 62 percent from October to November, according to Amherst Securities’ Laurie Goodman.

(Read More: Mortgage Applications Rose Last Week)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100280694

Sales of existing homes are recovering slowly, but a drop in supplies of those homes is pushing confidence among the new home builders to a six year high.

There are just 2.1 million existing homes for sale, which is a 22 percent drop from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Much of this is due to a drop in foreclosed and distressed homes, as lenders try to modify troubled loans more aggressively.

“In view of the tightening supply and other improving conditions, many potential buyers who were on the fence are now motivated to move forward with a purchase in order to take advantage of today’s favorable prices and interest rates,” wrote Berry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders in a release Monday.

That pushed home builder sentiment up 5 points in November on the NAHB’s monthly survey. It now stands at 46, just 4 points shy of the line between positive and negative sentiment. Last year sentiment was around 19. The component of the index gauging current sales jumped 8 points, and sales expectations jumped 2 points, the only component now in the positive range. Again, much of that is due to a lower overall supply of homes on the market, as distressed homes fell to 24 percent of all sales, down from nearly 40 percent at the worst of the housing crash.

(Read More: Existing Home Sales, Homebuilder Sentiment Rise)

The nation’s five largest banks report that since March 1 of this year they have extended more than $26 billion in mortgage relief to more than 300,000 borrowers. $6.339 billion of that is in the form of principal reduction on first or second liens. All of this is in accordance with the National Mortgage Settlement signed this year by those banks with 49 state attorneys general and federal agencies over so-called “robo-signing” fraud.

While lenders are also pushing foreclosures that cannot be saved through the system more quickly, there is a ready cadre of investors waiting to buy. Investors made up 20 percent of buyers in October, according to the NAR. Since investors largely use cash, regular owner-occupants who largely need to use mortgages, can’t compete. 29 percent of existing home buyers used all-cash.

(Read More: Let Real Estate Help Pay for Retirement)

First-time home buyers, who usually make up 40 percent of the market, are still down at just 31 percent. So add up first timers and owner-occupants using a mortgage, and that is where you get the jump in demand for new construction. Home builders are clearly seeing this, with many of the big public companies seeing huge jumps in net new orders.

Sector Watch: U.S. Home Builders

—Toll Brothers
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—DR Horton
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—Hovnanian Enterprises
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—PulteGroup
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—Ryland Group
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—Lennar Corp
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—Beazer Homes USA
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—Meritage Homes
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—KB Home
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