Throughout the nine-county region, about 18 percent of all homes with a mortgage – or 205,819 homes – were underwater as of June 30, according to real estate service Zillow.com. That’s a big comeback from just 15 months earlier, when negative equity peaked both locally and nationally.

In late March 2012, almost a third of Bay Area homeowners with mortgages – 31.2 percent, or 355,879 homes – had loans larger than their house’s value.

About one-third of homes are owned outright with no mortgage; they are excluded from the percentage rates.

“The Bay Area is getting out of negative equity at a much faster pace than anywhere else in the country,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “It was a huge percentage point decrease there. Nationally the decrease is much smaller.”

Nationwide, the negative equity rate is 23.8 percent of mortgaged homes, Zillow said.

Home prices surge

Most of the gains are because of a surge in home prices as local real estate markets have grown heated. A smaller share stems from underwater homes changing hands, either as foreclosures or short sales, thus wiping out their negative equity.

The report comes as Richmond – among the areas most underwater – considers taking the radical step of invoking eminent domain to forcibly seize underwater mortgages and slash their principal to restore some equity to the homeowners. Richmond says the goal is to prevent foreclosures and stabilize neighborhoods.

Being underwater has huge implications for a homeowner, particularly when combined with a financial shock – death, divorce, job loss or mortgage payments resetting higher, for instance.

People who have equity in their homes, the largest asset for most Americans, generally have more consumer confidence.

“Homeowners feeling like they are richer in home values does translates to them feeling a bit ‘spendier’ on the consumer side of their expenditures, which will strengthen broader economic recovery,” Humphries said.

Not surprisingly, negative equity is most prevalent in areas that were ravished by foreclosures. The Solano County communities of Vallejo, Fairfield and Suisan City have underwater rates above 47 percent of mortgaged homes.

The Contra Costa towns of Pittsburg, Richmond, Antioch, Hercules and Oakley have rates well above 40 percent. Some Oakland ZIP codes also have high rates.

Even more relevant, in those areas it’s not just that many homes are underwater, it’s that they are deeply underwater, with significant percentages owing more than twice their home’s value. That means homeowners in those areas are unlikely to reach positive equity for many years.

By contrast, in the affluent areas of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, not only are far fewer homeowners underwater, most are underwater by smaller percentages. That means they have hope that the rising market will lift them into positive equity within a short time frame.

Underwater homes are among the reasons the real estate market has faced a limited supply of inventory.

“You’re still not seeing folks who bought in 2006 selling now because they’re not above water yet,” said Kevin Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty in Danville.

Fewer short sales

As equity continues to rise, more homes should hit the market.

“Our expectation is that a lot of people recently freed from negative equity will start to sell their homes, which will ease inventory constraints,” Humphries said.

The decrease in underwater homes is also borne out in far fewer short sales – homes sold for less than is owed on the mortgage.

“Short sales have dwindled down to hardly anything now,” Kieffer said. “There are only four active (short sale listings) in central (Alameda) county.

“The banks are not pushing hard for short sales the way they once were. I think they’re waiting to ride out this market for the upside. They don’t want to have to go through the expense of a short sale.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-leads-in-underwater-mortgage-rebounds-4772598.php

Throughout the nine-county region, about 18 percent of all homes with a mortgage – or 205,819 homes – were underwater as of June 30, according to real estate service Zillow.com. That’s a big comeback from just 15 months earlier, when negative equity peaked both locally and nationally.

In late March 2012, almost a third of Bay Area homeowners with mortgages – 31.2 percent, or 355,879 homes – had loans larger than their house’s value.

About one-third of homes are owned outright with no mortgage; they are excluded from the percentage rates.

“The Bay Area is getting out of negative equity at a much faster pace than anywhere else in the country,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “It was a huge percentage point decrease there. Nationally the decrease is much smaller.”

Nationwide, the negative equity rate is 23.8 percent of mortgaged homes, Zillow said.

Home prices surge

Most of the gains are because of a surge in home prices as local real estate markets have grown heated. A smaller share stems from underwater homes changing hands, either as foreclosures or short sales, thus wiping out their negative equity.

The report comes as Richmond – among the areas most underwater – considers taking the radical step of invoking eminent domain to forcibly seize underwater mortgages and slash their principal to restore some equity to the homeowners. Richmond says the goal is to prevent foreclosures and stabilize neighborhoods.

Being underwater has huge implications for a homeowner, particularly when combined with a financial shock – death, divorce, job loss or mortgage payments resetting higher, for instance.

People who have equity in their homes, the largest asset for most Americans, generally have more consumer confidence.

“Homeowners feeling like they are richer in home values does translates to them feeling a bit ‘spendier’ on the consumer side of their expenditures, which will strengthen broader economic recovery,” Humphries said.

Not surprisingly, negative equity is most prevalent in areas that were ravished by foreclosures. The Solano County communities of Vallejo, Fairfield and Suisan City have underwater rates above 47 percent of mortgaged homes.

The Contra Costa towns of Pittsburg, Richmond, Antioch, Hercules and Oakley have rates well above 40 percent. Some Oakland ZIP codes also have high rates.

Even more relevant, in those areas it’s not just that many homes are underwater, it’s that they are deeply underwater, with significant percentages owing more than twice their home’s value. That means homeowners in those areas are unlikely to reach positive equity for many years.

By contrast, in the affluent areas of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, not only are far fewer homeowners underwater, most are underwater by smaller percentages. That means they have hope that the rising market will lift them into positive equity within a short time frame.

Underwater homes are among the reasons the real estate market has faced a limited supply of inventory.

“You’re still not seeing folks who bought in 2006 selling now because they’re not above water yet,” said Kevin Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty in Danville.

Fewer short sales

As equity continues to rise, more homes should hit the market.

“Our expectation is that a lot of people recently freed from negative equity will start to sell their homes, which will ease inventory constraints,” Humphries said.

The decrease in underwater homes is also borne out in far fewer short sales – homes sold for less than is owed on the mortgage.

“Short sales have dwindled down to hardly anything now,” Kieffer said. “There are only four active (short sale listings) in central (Alameda) county.

“The banks are not pushing hard for short sales the way they once were. I think they’re waiting to ride out this market for the upside. They don’t want to have to go through the expense of a short sale.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-leads-in-underwater-mortgage-rebounds-4772598.php

“I think the higher stock market and low rates is a function of the Fed [Federal Reserve] just pumping liquidity into the system,” said Paul Miller of FBR. “What you see, I believe, is some of that liquidity is leaking into the stock market, which is resulting in higher valuations for stocks. But the bond market is still flush with liquidity, and that is keeping mortgage rates low.”

Should the Fed start winding down its asset purchases later this year, mortgage rates will rise. That would make home buying more expensive in an already rising price environment. But is that enough to stop housing’s momentum? Perhaps not.

(Read More: What’s Really Behind Home Price Gains)

“For mortgage payments to return to their long-term average of 22 percent of disposable income, 30-year fixed rates would have to rise all the way to 9 percent,” noted Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. “Accordingly, we’re optimistic that the nascent improvement in mortgage applications will be sustained.”

In any case, it hasn’t been the rates holding borrowers back, but the availability of mortgage credit. That may be easing as well.

Nearly 10 percent of senior loan officers surveyed by the Federal Reserve in April reported easing their lending standards for low-risk mortgages. That’s an increase from the previous quarter. Banks were not, however, more willing to lend to borrowers with lower credit scores. This as 44 percent of loan officers surveyed reported demand for “prime” mortgages was moderately stronger.

(Read More: Old Ills Still Hit Big Banks)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100720364

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It’s one thing to jump on the bandwagon when things are getting better, it’s quite another to jump off of it when everyone around you, not to mention your own company’s earnings, would seem to confirm that sentiment. But that’s just what Donald J. Tomnitz, CEO of D.R. Horton

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“I still don’t see a lot of jobs being created,” he told an earnings conference call, sending his company’s stock down when it should have been riding higher on a 24 percent year-over-year jump in new orders for homes. He is concerned about the future of this fledgling housing recovery, and he has reason to be. Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are driven by unemployment.

The homebuilders are rising from the ashes, after overbuilding and a credit crash sent sales and construction to levels not seen economists began counting all those numbers; they are rising, but not necessarily thriving. While overall buyer demand has been weak, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) have stood as the greatest competition, as many of those homes are in fact relatively new construction.

The good news is that mortgage delinquencies are falling, down to 5.41% of all mortgages outstanding in Q3 of 2012 from 5.88% a year ago, according to a new report from TransUnion.

“Continued declines in mortgage delinquency rates are a welcome sign and reflect that relatively more homeowners are able and willing to make their mortgage payments each month,” said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. Housing in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. “However, we still have a long way to go to reach more ‘normal’ conditions of a delinquency rate in the 1-2 percent range for the U.S. average.”

(Read More: Let Real Estate Help Pay for Retirement)

The recovery, like all real estate, is becoming increasingly local, with the hardest hit markets, like Arizona and California recovering faster than New Jersey and Illinois. One disturbing finding from TransUnion: 49 percent of metropolitan areas saw quarterly improvement in their mortgage delinquency rates in Q3, down from 76 percent in Q2 and 73 percent in Q1.

The reason areas in Arizona, Nevada and California are improving so dramatically is because of high investor demand. Investors have driven supplies of distressed properties there so low that those markets are now seeing double digit home price increases. Even those higher prices are not driving investors away because there is still so much rental demand that rents are rising.

“Nationally, rental leasing volumes were up sequentially every month during the last two years,” according to CoreLogic’s November ‘MarketPulse’ report. “Over this same period, an average of 42,000 rentals were added to the stock of rental homes each month. This is more than twice the average flow that the U.S. was experiencing prior to the housing recovery.”

This investor-fueled recovery helps in the short term, but in the long term housing needs to be driven by a healthier economy, income growth and consumption and rising home prices, according to CoreLogic.

(Read More: Home Depot Raises Outlook as Housing Market Improves)

“We are in the second inning,” said Ara Hovnanian, CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises
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Too much uncertainty in the economy lies ahead, and housing lies in the balance.

Sector Watch: U.S. Homebuilders

—Toll Brothers
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—DR Horton
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—Hovnanian Enterprises
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—PulteGroup
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—Ryland Group
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—Lennar Corp
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—Beazer Homes USA
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—Meritage Homes
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—KB Home
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Questions?  Comments?