The negative home equity rate fell in the second quarter of this year, the fifth straight quarterly drop, but it is still alarmingly high and continues to hamper the housing recovery.

Currently, 23.8 percent of homeowners with a mortgage, or approximately 12.2 million, owe more than their homes are worth, down from 15.3 million one year ago, according to the report. Some, however, are still so far underwater that even with fast-rising prices, it will take years for them to see any home equity.

(Read more: Home sales suffer on higher rates: Realtors)

“Widespread rising home values during the past year have helped chip away at negative equity nationwide, helping many homeowners who were only modestly underwater to come up for air. For those homeowners who are deeply underwater, though, there is still a long row to hoe,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries in a release.

(Read more: He’s not buying a house—why is Obama on Zillow?)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100995592

Mortgage applications had been lower for much of the summer, and refinances continue to fall, but applications to purchase a home rose 2 percent last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

This, even as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $417,000 or less increased to 4.8 percent, the highest since April 2011. They are still down 6 percent in the past month. Mortgage rates, however, have been moving lower this week on weak economic data.

Higher home prices could also be hurting potential sales, as very low inventories continue to cause bidding wars from coast to coast. Inventories of existing homes are down significantly in most of the nation’s major housing markets.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

San Francisco, for example is seeing some of the highest home price appreciation, as listings were down 29 percent in July year over year, according to the California Association of Realtors.

“More homes clearly need to be built in the West to relieve price pressure, or the region could soon face pronounced affordability problems,” Yun said.

Single family housing starts were down 2.2 percent in July month to month, as home builders still struggle to find finished lots and skilled labor. Underlying demand is running nearly twice the rate of housing completions, according to IHS Global Insight. Some home builders admit they are slowing production in order to gain pricing power.

(Read more: Home prices across the US defy gravity)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100993579

Looking at 245 Bay Area ZIP codes, Zillow projects that 244 will see home values ratchet up by significant margins in 2013, with 27 ZIPs seeing double-digit appreciation. Only one of the ZIPs analyzed – 94515 in Calistoga – is forecast to see values recede, by a modest 1.4 percent.

“The forces of supply and demand seem to be exacerbated here right now,” said Svenja Gudell, senior economist with Zillow in Seattle. “We’re happily surprised by how well (the market) is doing and how much it’s picking up steam.”

Strikingly, some of the strongest percentage increases are likely to happen in both the cheapest and the priciest areas in the nine-county region, Zillow predicts. Low-end Solano County markets such as Vacaville, Fairfield, Dixon and Suisun City, where values plunged during the real-estate downturn and are still half off their peaks, should see values bump up by more than 14 percent – admittedly easier to do off a low base.

At the same time, Portola Valley, Atherton and Palo Alto – with million-dollar-plus median values that now exceed their boom-time heights – should see appreciation above 12 percent, Zillow said.

Popular San Francisco neighborhoods such as Noe Valley, the Castro, Twin Peaks, the Mission and Bernal Heights are poised for double-digit appreciation, along with Menlo Park, Larkspur, Palo Alto, Alameda and North Berkeley, Zillow predicts.

Regaining value

One major way that the low-cost and high-end markets diverge is in where values are now relative to their peak. Zillow shows 25 ZIP codes where values have regained all the value lost during the downturn and then some. All are in pricey Silicon Valley or San Francisco neighborhoods where the median price is around $1 million. Meanwhile, about 100 ZIP codes are still 30 percent or more below their peaks – all in hard-hit, lower-end communities in Solano, Alameda and Contra Costa counties.

For the San Francisco metropolitan area (the counties of San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda and Contra Costa), Zillow projects that that values will rise 7.3 percent this year, more than double its predicted 3.3 percent national increase. The San Jose metro area (Santa Clara and San Benito counties) should rise 6.6 percent, it said.

“That is a really great number in the San Francisco metro,” Gudell said. “It is rather special compared to the U.S. as a whole.”

Zillow’s projections take into account both long-term historical trends back to 1997, as well as current data on how markets have behaved in recent months. It also factors in information on employment, income and other economic factors to predict what housing values might do, she said.

Can’t meet demand

Every market around the Bay Area – whether low-end, high-end or somewhere in the middle – now has one outstanding characteristic that is driving up prices: too few homes for sale to meet buyer appetite.

“There is no place where we see a steeper decline in listed homes (for sale) than the Bay Area,” said Lanny Baker, CEO of ZipRealty in Emeryville, which has agents throughout the Bay Area and the country. “This time last year there were 13,000 homes listed here. Today we see about 5,000 homes – a 60 percent reduction.”

Moreover, the mix of homes being sold has changed dramatically, something that particularly affects lower-end markets such as Solano County. Far fewer bargain-priced, bank-owned foreclosures are on the market.

In the low-cost markets, investors waving fistfuls of cash are snapping up properties, usually to keep as rentals, sometimes to flip. In the high-end markets, it’s tech millionaires – armed with far bigger wads of cash – who are jostling to live in homes in Silicon Valley or San Francisco.

“As soon as something new hits the market, it’s snapped up,” said Sandy Rainsbarger, an agent with ZipRealty in Vacaville. That town’s 95688 ZIP, where the median value is now $287,900, is projected by Zillow to see values rise 17.1 percent this year – the biggest price appreciation in the Bay Area. “There are multiple offers on every single property.”

Buyers pushed aside

Meanwhile, “regular” buyers, especially first-time home buyers who are relying on Federal Housing Administration mortgages, are finding themselves shoved aside time after time in frenzied bidding wars.

“The Bay Area is one of the fastest-moving markets in the country,” Baker said. “We see houses sell on average in 26 days here. One statistic we look at is what percentage of homes sell in just seven days; that’s like a red alert. If it gets to 15 percent, we know we’re in a zany market. In the Bay Area, it’s at 13 percent. In Sacramento, 25 percent of homes sell in less than seven days.

“I think throughout this year, we’ll see Bay Area markets continue to be very, very strong,” Baker said. “On the lower end, the specter of foreclosures and ‘Gosh, nobody’s ever going to want to live this far out’ has washed away, and there is more confidence in values recovering.

“On the high end, we’ve got Silicon Valley and the tech economy doing really well.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-home-prices-projected-to-surge-4288392.php