“This coming week, market participants will be focused on Friday’s jobs report as an indicator of whether the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of Fed stimulus.”

Mortgage rates are up about a full percentage point from where they were at the beginning of May. That translates into about a 15 percent jump in monthly payments for the average home buyer, or 15 percent less purchasing power, depending on how you look at it. That can certainly be make or break for some buyers, especially first-time home buyers who may have been stretching in the first place.

“Applications for new home purchases have continued to move sideways over the last month, but that may be people are rushing to buy or lock in mortgage rates before rates move even higher,” said Michelle Girard of RBS Securities. “It may be that there is going to a bit of a lag effect. I still think rates are historically low, and we are in an improving economy, although a gradual one, the recovery can continue, maybe the pace will moderate—but I do not think the back up in mortgage rates is going to derail the housing recovery.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100862969

“This coming week, market participants will be focused on Friday’s jobs report as an indicator of whether the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of Fed stimulus.”

Mortgage rates are up about a full percentage point from where they were at the beginning of May. That translates into about a 15 percent jump in monthly payments for the average home buyer, or 15 percent less purchasing power, depending on how you look at it. That can certainly be make or break for some buyers, especially first-time home buyers who may have been stretching in the first place.

“Applications for new home purchases have continued to move sideways over the last month, but that may be people are rushing to buy or lock in mortgage rates before rates move even higher,” said Michelle Girard of RBS Securities. “It may be that there is going to a bit of a lag effect. I still think rates are historically low, and we are in an improving economy, although a gradual one, the recovery can continue, maybe the pace will moderate—but I do not think the back up in mortgage rates is going to derail the housing recovery.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100862969

“There is a huge population that have benefitted from adjustable rate mortgages. When the rates adjusted, they adjusted down. Those homeowners have been riding those low, one-year arms. If they start to hear about rates going up, they may come out of the woodwork to lock into fixed rates,” says Strent.

That may be, but 88 percent of loans outstanding today are fixed, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Just 12 percent are adjustable rate. Even if rates do not rise any higher than they are today, which they may not, they would have to fall below last year’s lows to see the high refinance volume of 2012 continue in 2013.

(Read More: Link Between Credit and Mortgages: Not What You Think)

“The refi apocalypse is upon us,” says Mark Hanson, a mortgage analyst in Northern California. “The thought is that there are a bunch of homeowners on the fence who haven’t refi’d who will all jump in thinking they will miss out. The theory is 100 percent nonsense. The series will simply plunge. That’s because after 16 months of sub 4 percent rates — and every bank loan officer and mortgage broker doing everything they can after a long mortgage banking income drought that ended with Twist — there is nobody left to refi. In fact, the only reason refi applications stayed flat in Q3 and Q4 was because they passed a new law allowing refinances regardless of the LTV [loan to value]…the HARP unlimited LTV refi.”

While the Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, a signal that the economic recovery is improving and even the slightest hint that the Fed could end its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, could push rates slightly higher.

“The Fed likely won’t use its statement to markets to finger a specific date on which QE3 will end, but that won’t stop investors from guessing. If the herd believes that QE3 will terminate within the next 6 months, mortgage rates will likely rise. If QE3 is believed to extend into 2014 and beyond, mortgage rates will likely fall,” writes Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage in his blog.

(Read more: What to Expect from Interest Rates This Year)

While refinances may suffer under even slightly higher rates, more important to the housing recovery is new mortgages to purchase homes. Purchase applications are still running at half the rate they were in 2007, when last the Dow hit a new high. Small moves in mortgage rates do affect purchasing power, but lending standards are a far bigger driver today. New regulations for lenders and a consolidation of lending overall to the mega-banks are certainly slowing, and in some cases stalling, the process for some would-be buyers.

(Read More: Cities That Are Most Prepared for Retirement)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100420382

(Read More: Could Rentals Be the New Red Flags in Real Estate?)

Healthy housing market gains are historically driven by increasing employment and income, not by lack of supply; the latter leads to price bubbles. First-time home buyers, who generally account for 40 percent of the home-buying market or higher are still under-represented at just 30 percent, according to the Realtors. This is due to tighter credit conditions in the mortgage market and now decreasing affordability.

December’s disappointing drop in home sales, month-to-month is a clear warning for the housing recovery going forward. Rising home prices are not the sole measure of a healthy market. Supply and demand need to fall closer in line, and a robust economic recovery should be driving both home sales and prices.

(Read More: One Overlooked Fact About the Housing Recovery)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100397644

After a slew of positive readings on the nation’s housing recovery, sales of newly built homes in October were a big disappointment.

Despite the big public builders reporting big jumps in new orders and builder confidence positively leaping to the highest level since 2006, sales just didn’t compute, and even September’s numbers were revised down.

“The recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to believe,” writes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics.

But Diggle points out the positives, specifically that the time between a completion and a new home sale has been falling dramatically, from over 14 months in late 2009 to just over 6 months today. The average historically is five months.

“That drop strikes us as another sign that buyer confidence is improving,” adds Diggle.

But is it improving as much as builder confidence?

“This was a disappointing update,” writes Patrick Newport of HIS Global Insight.

“It indicates that demand for single-family homes is only slowly picking up, not accelerating, as the data previously showed. It also indicated that builders may have jumped the gun a little by accelerating the pace of construction of single-family homes.

(Read More: Cities With the Most Affordable Homes)

A big concern for home builders now is the looming fiscal cliff. The housing recovery depends on the economic recovery and continued improvement in the jobs picture. There is also great concern that the mortgage interest deduction could fall victim to the cliff. That’s why housing lobbyists have upped their budgets this year to $30 million from $27 million in 2011, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The National Association of Realtors leads by far with a record $25,982,290 spent on lobbying so far.

(Read More: Why the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Is Kryptonite to Entrepreneurs)

Fears of the fiscal cliff could be impacting potential buyers already. The new home sales monthly number from the U.S. Department of Commerce is based on signed contracts, not closings, so it is a clear gauge of what potential buyers are feeling right now.

(Read More: How ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction)

“It is making me nervous for sure to have such uncertainty over such a traditional expectation, the mortgage deduction,” says Stephen Paul, of Mid-Atlantic Builders, a Maryland-based company. Paul says he hasn’t seen any cancellations over it yet, but it has come up in conversation plenty.

It is just one more uncertainty that this recovery doesn’t need. All signs are pointing to big gains in the housing market for 2013. Those expectations, however, must be tempered with a dash of perspective yet again. Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak maps it out well:

“While the housing industry is recovering, new home sales have trended between 360k and 370k for the last 6 months, still 73 percent below the bubblicious peak in July ’05 and not too far above the trough seen in 1982 and still below the bottom seen in the 1991 recession. On one hand, there is plenty of room for continued improvement but on the other, the healing process will take a lot of time and will likely be in fits and starts as recoveries from the aftermath of bubbles typically are.”

SECTOR WATCH: US Home Builders

—Toll Brothers
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—DR Horton
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—Hovnanian Enterprises
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—PulteGroup
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—Ryland Group
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—Lennar Corp
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—Beazer Homes USA
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—Meritage Homes
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—KB Home
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Questions?  Comments?