A real estate source I knew recently told me about a guy he knows in Atlanta who has been hired by several different banks to winterize their REO’s (real estate owned, i.e. the bank-owned foreclosures).

The homes are abandoned and empty, and clearly the banks think they’re going to stay that way for a while.

The winterizer didn’t want to do an interview, for fear he would lose his clients, the banks, who might not want us all to know about this.

A new study by an economist at the Cleveland Federal Reserve finds today’s foreclosures stay vacant far longer than the historical norm. Studying one Ohio county, Stephan Whitaker found, “foreclosed homes go through more than a year of very high vacancy rates following the auction and are substantially more likely to be vacant up to 60 months after the foreclosure.” The higher the poverty rate in the area, the longer the property stays vacant.

Foreclosed homes obviously lower the value of surrounding homes, but Whitaker says the damage can go on much longer than we might think. “The data suggest that foreclosure may permanently scar some homes,” he writes in his research.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43913483?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Last month, the National Association of Realtors reported a huge jump in cancellations of pending home sale contracts. 16 percent of contracts didn’t make it to closing, up from a norm of about 4 percent.

The chief economist at the NAR said he was baffled by it, but ask any agent working the nation’s neighborhoods, and they’ll tell you it is all about confidence and financing—specifically, a lack of both.

“It seems like everybody’s got home purchase ‘cancel-itis,’” says David Fogg, a real estate agent in Burbank, Calif.

“Currently, we are seeing about 75 percent, when we close escrow, had been in escrow 2 or 3 times prior.”

Fogg says the higher cancellations recently are most definitely tied to the turmoil in Washington, D.C. over the debt ceiling . Already nervous buyers are suddenly changing course, unsure how the debt crisis will affect the overall economy, and more importantly, their own employment.

More buyers did sign sales contracts in June than in May, though, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. Pending home sales rose 2.4 percent month-to-month and are nearly 20 percent* higher than June of 2010, the low point following the end of the home buyer tax credit.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43926826?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

It’s not like the housing market needs any more headwinds, so here’s the government potentially giving us another: The mortgage interest deduction is back in big play in the budget deal.

It never exactly came off the table, but the bigger the budget deal, the more likely the mortgage deduction will take a bigger hit.

Right now, home loan borrowers can deduct the amount of interest they pay on their mortgages from their taxable income. This goes for principal residences and second homes. The interest deduction is capped at the first million dollars of debt on the home. For home equity loans it’s capped at $100,000 in debt.

The deduction costs the U.S. Treasury about $100 billion a year. There are proposals now to either reduce the cap to $500,000 and/or to eliminate the deduction on second homes. Eliminating the deduction on second homes would save about $15 billion, and reducing the cap to $500,000 would save another $15 billion, according to economist William Wheaton at MIT. 10.5 percent of existing home sales in June were of homes over $500,000 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Then there’s the idea from the President’ bipartisan commission of turning the interest deduction into a 12 percent credit, limited to $500,000 in mortgage debt, only on primary residences. That could save the Treasury $65 billion.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43882179?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

What does the consumer price index (CPI) have to tell us about the future of the housing market?

Apparently a lot.

Let me first explain a few things for those of you housing types who don’t follow this monthly number. The CPI is the most common way to measure inflation. There’s the big number and then what’s called the “core” number, which is the big number minus food and energy costs (gas prices obviously skewing things a lot these days). The big number was pushed down thanks to a drop in gasoline prices, but the core number was higher than expected, thanks to housing.

One component of the CPI is the “Owners Equivalent Rent,” (OER) measures the amount of money it costs to live somewhere, anywhere, be it a rental apartment or your own home.

“The key factor in the higher than expected core rate was a .2 percent rise in Owners Equivalent Rent, the biggest gain since March ’09,” writes Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak. “This figure is important because it makes up 25 percent of CPI and 40 percent of the core. Apartment landlords are gaining pricing power as vacancies fall as the homeownership continues its decline. This is a secular trend and will result in a further lift in core inflation going forward.”

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