Today’s bullish report on pending home sales came with a caveat from the Realtors:

“If banks would simply return to normal, sound underwriting standards and begin lending to more creditworthy borrowers, we’d get a much faster recovery in the housing sector,” said National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun.

That part has been their mantra for months. No surprise there. But then:

“In addition, a nonsensical situation has developed recently in some states with HUD unable to complete foreclosure deals because of insufficient funds to pay attorney fees at closing, even with buyers offering the full listing price,” Yun added.

This was new to me, so I called over to HUD, and let’s just say they were not exactly thrilled with the Realtors’ statement.

HUD says what the Realtors are talking about only affects sales of HUD-owned foreclosures in six states in the Northeast, and dare I say the Northeast is not where the greatest volume of home sales are taking place right now anyway.

So this from HUD: “Closing on approved purchases of HUD-owned properties has been temporarily delayed in New England. Due to increased demands, funds for closing contracts in this region have been expended and HUD is currently negotiating new contracts. Once they are executed, closings will resume.

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How do I loathe home price day?

Let me count the ways.

The rash generalizations, the seasonal vs. non-seasonal adjustment confusion, the month-to-month vs. year-over-year, the contention among all the varied home price reports from the various and varied entities that track them.

I could go on, but if you are a regular Realty Check reader, you’ve heard all this before.

This month is particularly frustrating, because the big headline from SP/Case Shiller was that home prices rose for the first time in eight months. Okay, yes, from March to April, with no seasonal adjustments, home prices rose barely, less than one percent, in the nation’s top 20 housing markets. When you seasonally adjust those numbers, the prices fall. Why?

Because in different seasons, different types of buyers buy different types of homes.

The Spring market is historically replete with families; these are move-up buyers, purchasing larger, more expensive homes. That skews the overall prices higher. They buy in the Spring because they want to move over the summer, when school is out. You tend to see more single and first-time buyers in the fall.

This is why I judge prices year over year, because you are comparing apples to apples. Prices are down in 19 out of the top 20 markets year-over-year, with six markets hitting new lows on the SP/Case Shiller Home Price Index.

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As I sit here, less than 24 hours from the next release of the much-followed monthly SP/Case Shiller Home Price Index, I’m confronted with all kinds of varying data and hypotheses on the future track of home prices.

Particularly interesting to me is a new breakdown, by Capital Economics (which watches our market from Toronto, Canada), on how prices are falling faster at the low end than the high end.

At face value I thought this was a no-brainer. Of course the low end is falling faster because that’s where the bulk of the foreclosures are, thanks to the subprime mortgage debacle, which of course targeted first-time and low-income buyers on the low end. I had no idea how large the discrepancy is:

“Since their 2007 peak, prices in the low tier have so far fallen by 45 percent compared with declines of 35 percent and 25 percent in the middle and high tiers respectively,” notes the report.

Even though most of the subprime distress has worked itself through the market, the pressure on the low-end continues because it is the low-end borrowers now who have the toughest entry to the oh-so-tight mortgage market. As the report reminds, proposed risk retention rules will likely mean a 20 percent down payment, which will price many borrowers out of the low end of the market.

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Sales of newly built homes fell around 2 percent in May from the previous month, but that was a little better than expectations, given the lousy home builder sentiment number we got this month and the huge supply of competing existing and distressed properties.

But let’s put this monthly move in perspective, shall we?

The 319,000 sales pace is 14 percent higher than the record low set in February, but new home sales are still 77 percent below their peak in 2005, and 900,000 is considered healthy.

But how’s this for an odd statement:

“The one positive in this report was the further fall in the number of new homes for sales, from 172,000 in April to yet another record low of 166,000,” writes Paul Dales at Capital Economics. “With fewer new homes for sale than ever before, at some point homebuilding activity will have to increase, but we can’t see it happening for several years yet.”

That’s the positive??

You could look at the home prices, down 3.4 percent, which is less than the 5 percent drop in existing home prices in May. But then you have to remember all the concessions builders are throwing in, and you also have to look at the fact that the median price of an existing home is 30 percent less than that of a newly built home. How’s that for competition?

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The summer has barely started, but the fight is on against changes to loan limits that don’t take place until the first of October.

Today the National Association of Home Builders released its own study claiming that lowering the loan limits at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), “will reduce housing demand and place downward pressure on home prices in major housing markets.”

The loan limits were raised when the mortgage market crashed, investors in mortgage backed securities ran for the hills, and the government-owned entities were the only ones left writing mortgages. Originally at $417,000 for a so-called “conforming loan,” they rose to as high as $729,000 in the nation’s higher-cost markets, in order to keep mortgages moving. That will drop to $625,000 in October in those markets, with the base limit remaining at $417,000.

The builders say that homes above those limits “would likely require financing with higher mortgage interest rates and other less favorable loan terms, such as higher required down payments and more stringent credit history thresholds.”

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Sales of existing homes fell 3.8 percent in May, not as deep a drop as some had forecast, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million units.

April’s figure was revised down to 5 million.

Potential homebuyers continue to be held back by tough credit standards and poor confidence. Sales activity was 15.3 percent below the pace set in May of 2010, when buyers were rushing to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit.

“Spiking gasoline prices along with widespread severe weather hurt house shopping in April, leading to soft figures for actual closings in May,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $166,500 in May, down 4.6 percent from May 2010. Home prices continue to be pressured by the large supply of distressed properties, which typically sold at a discount of about 20 percent in May. Foreclosures and short sales, where the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage, accounted for 31 percent of sales in May, down from 37 percent in April.

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Hundreds of investors in real estate investment trusts are hunkered down at the Waldorf Astoria, touting tremendous returns and talking tactics for the next great play. It’s “REIT Week,” in New York, or for those of you less excited about it, it’s the annual conference of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT).

REITs overall are on a tear, with the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index up 14.13 percent on a total return basis in the first five months of the year.

But when I read down the fact sheet to the winners and losers, imagine my surprise to see the least sexy of the bunch at the top of the list: Self storage.

Forget the run on multi-family in the new rental age, forget the trophy office properties in the big metro markets, it’s those giant, brightly colored, enormous metal container communities just out beyond the mall that are reaping REITs rewards.

It’s simple, and it’s about housing. As fewer people choose to buy, and more people lose their homes, that’s where all their stuff goes. It’s also a product of overall downsizing. I realize that’s not a very highbrow explanation, but it just so happens to be the case, and it’s behind an 18.4% sector gain in the first five months of the year. In the last 12 months, self storage REITs returned 29 percent.

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It wasn’t at all what I expected. With accusations over the weekend by various journalists that the Realtors have been overestimating existing home sales numbers, I was ready for a full-court PR press at this morning’s monthly sales report lockup. Not so much.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun opened with, “This is going to be a fun press conference!” After detailing the usual monthly report, and carefully acknowledging a nearly 33 percentage point seasonal adjustment in sales numbers (!), Yun addressed the brewing controversy. He explained how they last “benchmarked” sales using Census figures back in 2000, but that they couldn’t do that in 2010 because the Census changed some of its survey questions. He admitted that the last revision to data in 2000 showed a 13 percent “drift,” as in the NAR’s numbers were 13 percent too high.

I won’t get into all the reasons for the “benchmark” troubles…okay, it’s really 3 reasons: 1) Consolidation of many MLS’s (multiple listing service—where Realtors list properties), so a rise in the numbers could be due to the MLS’s area getting bigger, not more sales, 2) Properties being listed on multiple MLS’s (so sales are double counted), and 3) A big drop in For Sale By Owner properties, so with more sellers using agents, there are more properties on the MLS to sell.

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