homesmillbrae.com

Home prices are rising nationally and at a still faster clip in the Bay Area. When will it end?

A report on housing “bubble risk” in 20 global financial markets finds that San Francisco is the most overvalued American city in the group. But while housing price growth in the city “has outpaced the U.S. as a whole by 260 percentage points over the last 40 years,” San Francisco still has only “limited bubble risk,” according to the report from UBS, the Swiss financial services company.

That’s because San Francisco is a “superstar” city buoyed by the growth of high-wealth households. Prices in San Francisco are up nearly 65 percent since 2011, UBS says, but its housing market is protected by “strong economic fundamentals amid the astonishing boom of tech companies.”

So where might the housing bubble pop?

Toronto tops UBS’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index for 2017. Also at risk of a housing bubble are Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, Sydney, London and Hong Kong — though London and Hong Kong, also deemed “superstars,” are presumably at less risk than the others in that group.

Los Angeles, like San Francisco, is categorized as “overvalued” in the report, while New York and Boston are “fair-valued” and Chicago is “undervalued.”

And what could push bubbles toward bursting? Interest rates, for one thing. If they climb, investors could pull back.

And then there’s the general problem of affordabilty.

“The recovery in the U.S. housing market following the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007 has taken national home prices to new heights,” said Jonathan Woloshin, co-head of Americas Fundamental Research at UBS Wealth Management’s chief investment office.

A bit ominously, he added: “In our opinion, housing affordability is significantly more challenged than conventional wisdom posits.”

Article source: http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/04/is-there-a-housing-bubble-and-will-it-burst-in-san-francisco/

Home prices are rising nationally and at a still faster clip in the Bay Area. When will it end?

A report on housing “bubble risk” in 20 global financial markets finds that San Francisco is the most overvalued American city in the group. But while housing price growth in the city “has outpaced the U.S. as a whole by 260 percentage points over the last 40 years,” San Francisco still has only “limited bubble risk,” according to the report from UBS, the Swiss financial services company.

That’s because San Francisco is a “superstar” city buoyed by the growth of high-wealth households. Prices in San Francisco are up nearly 65 percent since 2011, UBS says, but its housing market is protected by “strong economic fundamentals amid the astonishing boom of tech companies.”

So where might the housing bubble pop?

Toronto tops UBS’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index for 2017. Also at risk of a housing bubble are Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, Sydney, London and Hong Kong — though London and Hong Kong, also deemed “superstars,” are presumably at less risk than the others in that group.

Los Angeles, like San Francisco, is categorized as “overvalued” in the report, while New York and Boston are “fair-valued” and Chicago is “undervalued.”

And what could push bubbles toward bursting? Interest rates, for one thing. If they climb, investors could pull back.

And then there’s the general problem of affordabilty.

“The recovery in the U.S. housing market following the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007 has taken national home prices to new heights,” said Jonathan Woloshin, co-head of Americas Fundamental Research at UBS Wealth Management’s chief investment office.

A bit ominously, he added: “In our opinion, housing affordability is significantly more challenged than conventional wisdom posits.”

Article source: http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/04/is-there-a-housing-bubble-and-will-it-burst-in-san-francisco/

After blasting 762 home runs during his MLB career, Barry Bonds is now simply looking for a new home to run. The slugger has put his Mediterranean-style home on the market for $6.6 million.

The five-bedroom home sits on a half-acre plot in Hillsborough, in San Mateo County. A set of pillars frames the arched doorway, which opens to a two-story entry with hardwood floors.

See Barry Bonds’ home in this photo gallery.

Exposed beams line the high ceilings in the living space, where custom wood shelving surrounds a dome window.

The 5,170-square-foot home features two kitchens, one in the house and one on the patio. The former has a large island and dining area, while the latter has stainless steel appliances adjacent to a large outdoor fireplace.

The master bedroom has its own sitting area and opens to the spacious backyard, complete with a separate patio surrounded by a lawn and landscaping. Three other bedroom suites are in the main residence, and the guest house has a bathroom and pantry.

Other amenities include an office, loft and three-car garage.

Stanley Lo of Green Banker Realty holds the listing.

Perhaps the $6.6-million price tag means something to Bonds. Move the decimal point four spaces to the left and you have 660, which is the home run that tied Bonds with his own godfather, Hall of Famer Willie Mays.

During his 22-year career, Bonds played for the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants, making 14 All-Star teams. He crushed 73 home runs in 2001, the most ever in a single season.

He bought the home in 2015 for $6 million, according to public records.

Article source: http://www.sacbee.com/sports/mlb/san-francisco-giants/article176963836.html

The Vallejo area fell two points in September and is now the third hottest housing market in the United States.

Vallejo-Fairfield was ranked No. 3 on Realtor.com’s list of Top 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets in its September data preview. It was overtaken by the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward areas, which moved into the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively.

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale, says home shoppers here should find this a nice change of pace.

“In spite of giving up the hottest market slot in September, Vallejo-Fairfield continues to be a relatively affordable and hot Northern California market, she said. “Demand remains very strong in the market. With 2.5 times more page views per listing than the U.S. average, Vallejo-Fairfield does better than any other top-10 market on this measure in September.”

Supply, as measured by the pace of home sales in the Solano County market, actually increased, Hale said.

“This slower pace of sales relative to recent months is welcome relief to home shoppers in the market, and suggests some cooling,” she said. “Still, homes are selling fast. With a median of 38 days on market, only three markets in the top 20 and six markets in the top 300 are selling faster than they do in Vallejo-Fairfield. Home shoppers should enjoy this respite from the frenzy.”

Elsewhere in the country, Realtor.com’s latest report shows prices remained high in September while inventory continued dropping.

September data shows the immediate impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irene to the Houston and Miami housing markets, with views of Miami homes falling to -25 percent in September, down significantly from its 14 percent growth rate in August. Things were similar in Houston, where views fell 4 percent compared to a 21 percent growth rate in August.

New data shows the U.S. median home list price in September was $274,000 — 10 percent higher than one year ago and near its historical peak of $275,000, reached earlier this summer. For sale inventory also continues to be in short supply, with homes moving 10 percent more quickly than in September 2016. The median age of for-sale listings on Realtor.com in September is 69 days, indicating that sales are happening eight days faster than this time last year — despite double-digit price growth, Realtor.com officials said.

“While the steadiness in prices from August to September is on par with what we’ve seen in the last few years, other indicators show what a tough market buyers are facing,” Hale said. “Both the number of homes coming on the market and the amount of time they take to sell are lower than we typically see in the fall season, while listing views per property continue to rise.”

Solano Association of Realtors President Linda Daraskavich said the finding aren’t a big surprise.

“I think that part of the reason for the drop from No. 1 market is the fact that there is a little more inventory than there has been in quite a while,” she said. “And first time home buyers purchasing FHA are now out priced in our market. People looking to purchase homes in San Francisco and Silicon Valley have much higher incomes, have 25 percent or more to put down, qualify for much more house or pay cash.”

The seasonal ebb in the number of home listings has started, falling 1 percent since August, Hale said. “Inventory remains substantially lower than a year ago, down 9 percent compared to last September,” she said. “Approximately 430,000 new listings hit the market in September, a 2 percent decrease over last year, further exacerbating market tightness.”

For the complete report, go to https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/americas-20-hottest-markets-real-estate-september-2017/

Article source: http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/10/03/bay-area-has-top-3-hottest-housing-market-in-u-s/

Zurich-based Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) released its annual Global Real Estate Bubble Index Thursday. The financial firm ranks San Francisco as one of the most overpriced cities in the world. It also says we’re heading toward a dangerous price bubble.

To back this up, UBS cites some alarming statistics. Via a press release the firm said of SF’s housing market:

In San Francisco, in the wake of the technology boom and buoyant foreign demand, real house prices have soared 65 percent since 2012. Price growth has slowed in recent quarters, but remains 6 percent above the national average.

Despite the thriving economy, average incomes have risen only 10 percent since 2012 and have not kept pace with house prices, worsening housing affordability further.

Estimates by the U.S. Census disagree with a few of those numbers. San Francisco’s median household income went from $73,012 in 2012 to $103,801 in 2016, according to the American Community Survey. That’s an increase of more than 42 percent.

Median non-family households went from $59,924/year to $81,776, an increase of 36 percent.

However, UBS is correct stating that income can’t keep up with housing.

Paragon Real Estate estimated in June that the average price of a single-family home in San Francisco increased nearly 100 percent since 2012, breaking $1.5 million. This number appears more drastic than the 65 percent UBS figures.

So, even if the numbers disagree, there’s at least nominal consensus on the trend. (Any would-be San Francisco home buyer over the past five years would support this anecdotally.)

Of 20 cities assessed in UBS’s bubble index, San Francisco ranks tenth. Obviously, that’s not good. It is, however, not bad enough for UBS to term the city a “bubble risk,” instead still holding steady as simply “overpriced.”

UBS ranked SF’s high risk as largely steady the last three years in a row. It’s not so bad compared to, say, number-one ranked Toronto. But UBS still terms SF “the most overvalued U.S. urban housing market” that it studied.

Also of note, UBS’s own investments didn’t do a great job of anticipating the last big real estate bubble, as the company required a $5.3 billion bailout in 2008, with much of the money coming from the Swiss government.

• Bubble Index 2017 [UBS]
• SF Most Overvalued US Market [UBS]
• American Community Survey [US Census]
• SF Median Price: $1.5 Million [Curbed SF]
• Swiss Banks Need Bailout [NY Times]

Article source: https://sf.curbed.com/2017/10/2/16401598/housing-economy-bubble-index-san-francisco-sf