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Article source: https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/06/07/iconiq-capital-moves-hq-across-sfs-financial-district/

An analysis of data from the 25 largest U.S. metro areas collected by real estate listings website Redfin shows that these trends are often true, including in the Bay Area.

However, some areas have proved to be surprising exceptions – among them Sacramento, a popular destination for Bay Area residents whose housing market, red-hot early in the pandemic, has recently cooled significantly.

Using data from Redfin, we calculated new residents per 10,000 people in the 25 largest U.S. metro areas based on data from April 2022, and the average percent increase of median home sale prices from April 2021 to April 2022. Using its search data, Redfin calculates estimated migration numbers based on U.S. Census data.

As defined by Redfin, the Bay Area is part of a U.S. Census statistical area that combines the metro areas of San Francisco and San Jose, and encompasses the nine Bay Area counties plus five more: Merced, San Benito, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz and Stanislaus. Of the 25 markets examined, the San Francisco-San Jose metro area showed the highest residents per 10,000 looking to leave the area in the past year, at -33.3. During that time, home sale prices in the area increased year-over-year by 12.6%.

Those trends could be due to a number of factors, said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. Decreases in population are a relatively recent phenomenon in the Bay Area, he said. More people were moving to the Bay Area than leaving in 2014, but the tide began to change in 2015, with immigraton rates declining and then dropping “dramatically” in subsequent years.

California lost more than 117,000 residents in 2021, with several Bay Area counties including San Francisco driving the increase, each losing nearly 1% of their population. Still, last year’s statewide population decline was lower than the 2020 estimate of 182,083.

Meanwhile, home buying surged in the region during the pandemic as many people sought out more space and could work remotely. That demand, combined with low inventory, has continued to push home prices higher in the Bay Area, despite the outward migration trend.

Demand for homes in the region was strong earlier this year, Marr said, propelled by the “booming stock market” and low interest rates. He also noted that while overall population may have declined, the number of households within the Bay Area grew, with more people moving out of their parents’ homes or roommate situations, getting married and starting families.

But with interest rates rising, price growth likely won’t last for long, Marr said.

“Interest rates now rose at their fastest pace in history and are above 5%,” he said – likely causing home buyers to rethink how much they can afford. “I expect price growth to slow down and maybe turn negative in some areas,” he said.

While that pattern will likely be seen across the U.S., Marr said, coastal metro areas are usually more sensitive to financial market conditions, and therefore might see a bigger impact.

Sacramento had the highest incoming migration rate among the 25 major metros examined by Redfin, at 24.5 new people per 10,000 residents, but a relatively modest home sale price increase of 12.3% year-over-year. The metro area attracted many Bay Area residents earlier in the pandemic, as offices went remote and people sought out more space.

Marr said a “dramatic” 30% rise in home price growth in spring 2021 was followed by a “really big slowdown” more recently. While he said he couldn’t pinpoint the reasons, he suspected that during that period, many Bay Area residents left for a wider range of places out of state, not just Sacramento and the Central Valley.

Greater supply might also be keeping Sacramento’s home-price growth lower, he added. According to the April 2022 report from the Sacramento Association of Realtors, inventory increased 33% from April of last year, with 1,342 active listings as of April 2022.

In contrast with Sacramento, some areas with high home price increases are seeing more and more people leaving. Seattle is the prime example, with the second largest outflow migration of -28.9 per 10,000 and a home price increase of 18.2%.

Many buyers have simply been priced out of the market, Marr said.

“Our data shows Seattle was still attracting more people moving there a year ago,” he said. “Now more people are leaving Seattle. It used to be booming and the fastest growing region, and quickly turned as prices grew so rapidly.”

Salt Lake City is following a similar pattern, he said. In the last quarter of 2020, a “boom of people moved there” and the inflow remained positive in 2021 until the first quarter of this year.

“I think it’s fascinating that declining migration is indicative of a region that just got too hot,” he said, noting that many locals could no longer afford the higher home prices, and are looking to secondary markets.

The major U.S. metro areas with the highest inward migration and home price increases year-over-year include Phoenix, Orlando and Dallas.

Marr said people leaving the Bay Area had a “big impact” on places including Phoenix, some Texas cities, Seattle, Denver and Salt Lake City. He said those buyers brought with them deep pockets, whether they sold their Bay Area homes and had a lot of cash on hand, or had high salaries and the ability to work remotely.

“On average the budget of out-of-town buyers is significantly higher,” he said, and the amount of wealth flowing into those markets has pushed up home price inflation.

On the East Coast, Marr said the pattern is slightly different. While many New Yorkers moved to Atlanta and Florida metros, there were also a lot more second home buyers purchasing properties in Florida and the Gulf Coast, he said.

Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @KellieHwang

Article source: https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/real-estate-experts-see-slowdown-in-bay-area-housing-market/

Yet the two properties, with their expansive decks, walking trails and mature oak trees, are among the 73 sites that the city of Menlo Park has identified for affordable housing in its “housing element,” the state-mandated housing production plan that cities are required to put together every eight years.

While Menlo Park planners are faced with the difficult task of finding land on which to put 2,946 units, including 1,516 that are affordable to low-income households, the inclusion of the Sand Hill Road properties has fueled criticism that the current draft of the housing element includes multiple properties that are unlikely to ever be redeveloped for any kind of homes, never mind affordable ones.

“Sand Hill Road is probably the least likely place you could think of to put affordable housing,” said commercial real estate broker Robert Kirsten of Urban Realty Group, who is working on a sublease space deal at the 2730 Sand Hill Road building. “I don’t think it will go anywhere.”

On a recent Saturday in the Peninsula city, Menlo Park housing advocate Misha Silin led a biking tour of some of the properties targeted by the housing element. The group cycled along Sand Hill Road. They checked out a Safeway-anchored shopping center at 325 Sharon Park Drive, where the city would like to carve out an acre of parking lot for affordable housing. They looked at some city-owned parking lots in downtown Menlo Park and the 60-acre campus of the Stanford Research Institute, where developer Lane Partners is contemplating building 600 units.

Adina Levin, a transportation advocate who is a co-founder of the YIMBY group Menlo Together, said the tour was a useful way to separate the sites that could realistically become housing from those that are a more likely a planners’ fantasy.

“The VC firm offices are vanishingly unlikely to become sites for affordable housing,” Levin said. “Nobody is going to buy a site for however many millions of dollars and redevelop it for affordable housing. That is not going to happen.”

Instead, Levin, who lives near downtown and commutes by bike, argues that the city should be doubling down on transit-oriented sites like the downtown parking lots and the Stanford Research Institute, which is within walking distance of downtown Menlo Park’s Caltrain station. That property is planning a redevelopment that could add as many as 600 housing units, with more than 25% affordable, according to developer Lane Partners.

“You are a few steps away from the Caltrain and buses and your groceries and hardware and coffee,” Levin said. “You have a willing landowner. You have a willing developer. Unlike the Lightspeed offices, it’s a real site. We think the city needs to focus on the sites that are likely to be housing.”

At the heart of Menlo Park’s draft housing element, which was released last week, is the noble goal of correcting past injustices by spreading affordable housing throughout the city, including high-resourced areas with good schools, public transit, parks and retail.

In the current eight-year cycle, which expires next year, Menlo Park built almost all of its housing, affordable and market rate, in the Belle Haven neighborhood south of Highway 101. At a time when “redlining” prevented families of color from buying or renting property in the majority of Menlo Park, the Belle Haven neighborhood, along with East Palo Alto, was the only option in the area for Black or Latino residents.

In recent years it is those neighborhoods that have absorbed most of the new development. Facebook is building a campus in Belle Haven with 1,700 homes and 1.25 million square feet of office space. Another 1,300 units are in the pipeline there.

Menlo Park City Planner Deanna Chow said the development on the east side of the city has allowed Menlo Park to exceed its housing goals for market-rate housing.

“We have been been very good at housing production for a city of our size — I think we all now recognize the need to do our fair share of housing,” Chow said.

Now, however, the goal is shifting. For the current housing element, the California Department of Housing and Community Development is mandating not only that housing element plans accommodate enough units but that the units be in “high-resource” places that “affirmatively further fair housing.”

“The state is asking cities to go beyond the familiar,” said UC Davis Professor Chris Elmendorf, an expert in housing law. “So we should expect that some of the plan will bear fruit and some may not.”

Chow said the current element represents “an effort to spread housing throughout the city,” although she acknowledged that some of the sites are not realistic.

“We have heard from one of the property owners and they have shared that they are not interested in doing housing,” she said. “We will be sharing that feedback with the City Council.”

Another parcel on the city’s housing element list is a collection of five buildings at 900 Santa Cruz Ave. in downtown Menlo Park. The property is owned by the Church of the Pioneers Foundation and houses a church, an educational facility and office.

Foundation Vice President Bill Frimel said he was surprised when he received a letter in the mail stating that the property was being targeted for housing.

“We have never said we were interested in being part of a Housing Element for 900 Santa Cruz or any of our other properties,” he said. “We have no plans to sell our property or build houses on our property.”

Frimel said he has repeatedly called the city to relay that message. “I have called and left messages. I emailed the City Council but it bounced back,” he said. “We are all scratching our heads as to how did our properties show up on the Housing Element and why anyone would assume we would be willing to sell our property?”

One of the most controversial sites on the Menlo Park list is a 2.6-acre former school property in the Suburban Park neighborhood owned by the Ravenswood School District, which serves Belle Haven and East Palo Alto. The school district would like to build 90 units of teacher housing on the property but is facing fierce resistance from neighbors, who are organizing a ballot measure that will kill the development.

Resident Katie Behroozi, a supporter of the educator housing project, said many of the opponents bought into Menlo Park when it was affordable to working families and don’t realize how much prices have soared.

“You have people who don’t grasp the economic reality of what housing costs today,” she said. “People are not connecting the vibrancy they want with the lack of affordable housing. There are not enough people seeing the bigger picture.”

Kathleen Daly, owner of Café Zoe on Menalto Avenue, said most of her workers are Menlo Park high school or college students who live with their families.

“The bottom line is absolutely none of them would be able to move back to Menlo Park to live on their own,” she said.

Daly has a sign in her cafe window supporting the Ravenswood project.

“These people are educating our children — what is more important than that?” she said. “I don’t understand where people expect us all to live. Where are we supposed to go?”

On a recent afternoon, Levin was sitting outside Coffeebar, a downtown spot well known as a meeting place for tech entrepreneurs. She pointed to a sign in the window that read: “You Belong Here.” She said she found the sentiment a bit disingenuous, considering that the median home in the city sells for $2.8 million and average rent is $4,000 a month.

“If everybody is welcome but nobody can afford to live here, what does that mean other than it makes you feel good about yourself?”

• Renting vs. buying: What’s better in the Bay Area’s biggest cities right now?

Fremont ranked at the bottom for apartment space among the 100 largest U.S. cities by population, with just 320 square feet per person. San Jose was also near the bottom of the list, No. 89, at 407 square feet per person, and San Francisco was just five spots higher at 433 square feet per person.

The analysis, using data from RentCafe’s sister company Yardi Matrix, uses the average apartment size across 254 U.S. cities and renter household size from the 2020 U.S. Census. The average number of rooms per renter was calculated by the total number of bedrooms plus the living room, divided by the average number of people living in the household.

The Yardi Matrix data covers more than 20 million units across 169 markets, completed through January 2022. Only multi-family buildings with 50 units or more were included in the analysis.

They’re living a lot larger in Louisville, it seems – residents of that Kentucky city had the most private space per renter in the U.S., with a roomy 706 square feet, followed by Winston-Salem, N.C., at 692 square feet and Omaha, Neb., with 679.

The report notes that the Bay Area has a lot of company statewide in offering little space for renters in big buildinigs. Among all 254 cities in the report, the 10 with the least amount of space per renter were all in California: Fontana had the tightest squeeze, with an average of 295 square feet. Salinas was No. 2 at 299 square feet and Fremont came in third. The Bay Area city of Hayward ranked No. 8 for the least square footage, with 340 per person.

“The notoriously high cost of living in California — combined with crowded cities and a lack of available apartments — is pushing more people to live under the same roof,” the report said. “As a result, a renter’s private space decreases dramatically throughout the Golden State.”