Here’s what you need to know about the controversial Bay Area housing plan

Democratic Assemblyman David Chiu stepped into a political typhoon Thursday, when he introduced a state bill to create a Bay Area housing authority that would put tax measures on the ballot.

To Chiu and other housing advocates, this is the first step toward filling the state’s 3.5 million-home deficit, and developing communities in which families can afford to live near jobs, schools and hospitals.

“Right now, people have to drive farther to work, they can’t get their kids into good schools and they live far away from services,” said Matthew Lewis, spokesman for the pro-housing advocacy group California YIMBY. “We know, by every metric, that’s what is freaking Californians out.”

Chiu’s bill, AB1487, would create a new regional agency to raise funds for affordable housing construction — through, say, the sale of bonds accompanied by a tax increase, though those details still have to be worked out. If voters approve the funding mechanisms, they could generate $1.5 billion a year to be disbursed among the nine Bay Area counties. Communities would receive a portion of the money and still make their own land-use decisions.

But the notion of a new agency and more taxes infuriates some city leaders who say the government is running roughshod over local control.

Here’s a closer look:

The problem: Since the recession ended in 2009, the Bay Area has added 722,000 jobs but built only 106,000 homes, an imbalance that’s had severe consequences. It’s raised the price of real estate, pushing people farther and farther away from the urban core, in search of cheaper housing. As a result, workers spend two or three hours a day commuting. More people are moving into rural areas and wildfire zones.

The crisis has deepened for decades. Though the state sets regional housing goals, it never penalizes cities that fail to meet them. For the most part, communities are left on their own.

Building housing is complicated, and cities have many tools to make it happen or not. Residents often object to new development, saying it mars the look and feel of their communities. Politicians resent the state intervening to tell them what to build and where to put it. Affordable housing is costly to build without subsidies, and developers won’t commit to projects that won’t make a profit.

The region is tightly interconnected, Chiu said, so a city council obstructing development in the South Bay puts pressure on Oakland and San Francisco. And, ultimately, the effects ripple, creating a severe economic split between homeowners and renters, and older and younger generations.

Most local leaders recognize this crisis. But many don’t want to cede their decision-making power to the state — or to a new regional body that represents another layer of government.

The proposed solution: Chiu’s idea for a regional agency called Housing Alliance for the Bay Area derives from a controversial 10-point plan that originated two years ago, when the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments convened a panel of mayors, tech executives, tenant advocates and developers to tackle the crisis together.

Called Committee to House the Bay Area but nicknamed CASA, the panel put together an ambitious blueprint that calls for production of 35,000 homes a year, including 14,000 that are affordable to low-income families, and 7,000 that are affordable to moderate-income families.

The panel also called for preservation of 30,000 units of existing affordable housing, and protections for 300,000 households that are on the verge of getting displaced.

The document was intended as political ammunition for legislators, and several have picked up parts of it already — more than 200 housing bills were introduced this session.

Chiu’s AB1487 would create an agency to fund and shepherd the policies. It would introduce regional parcel or sales tax measures, spending the money on affordable housing production, rental assistance for tenants, and other forms of aid. It would help cities acquire land to build affordable housing and deliver reports on the region’s housing progress.

CASA estimates that the Bay Area needs to fill a $2.5 billion funding gap to meet its affordable housing goals. If it passes, AB1487 would provide more than half that money, and Chiu hopes that other state and local measures would provide the rest.

How it would work: Housing Alliance for the Bay Area would include members of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, members of the Association of Bay Area Governments and appointees of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has elevated housing as a top policy priority.

If voters approve the agency’s future funding measures, then 75 percent of the tax money generated by a county would stay within that county.

While the agency aims to build thousands of affordable units each year, it wouldn’t strip land-use authority from cities or counties, and it wouldn’t have the power of eminent domain to seize private property.

Why some cities object: Despite widespread concern about the housing shortage, some city leaders oppose a new layer of government bureaucracy making decisions on how tax money is spent. Many also felt alienated by the CASA process, saying it favored three big cities — San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose.

“Moving forward with legislators, I’d love to ensure that other voices are heard besides the big three,” said Los Gatos City Councilwoman Marico Sayoc. She hasn’t taken a position on Chiu’s bill yet, but she already has some questions. Namely, how will the money be distributed? And if most of it comes back to the county, then why does it have to be diverted to an agency in the first place?

How it could get complicated: It’s still unclear what will happen if cities refuse to build. Right now there is no real mechanism for the state to override local land-use authority. When Newsom proposed withholding transportation dollars from cities that don’t meet their housing targets, he ignited a political flame war.

Chiu hopes that other zoning bills will address these questions, or that the governor will come up with a way to coerce housing production. He said he wants the Housing Alliance to provide desperately needed funding, but not serve as an enforcement arm.

“We want HABA to be a carrot, not a stick,” he said.

Rachel Swan is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: rswan@sfchronicle.com

Twitter: @rachelswan

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Here-s-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-13671882.php

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People want to leave the San Francisco Bay Area, claims every survey

It happened again.

The Silicon Valley Leadership Group and Bay Area News Group released the results of a new survey of Bay Area voters this week. Among its findings: many residents say they want to leave the area in the near future.

This corresponds to roughly several years of similar public polling results, which detail discontent among the broad Bay Area public.

In fact, results like this have become so common since the start of the second tech boom and the beginning of the housing crisis that it has almost achieved meme-like levels, with each new survey bringing a distinct sense of deja vu.

To help keep it all straight, here’s what polling numbers published since 2018 say:

  • In the latest outing, a poll of 1,568 registered voters in San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and San Mateo counties conducted by the Silicon Valley Leadership Group for Bay Area News Group found that 44 percent of those asked say they plan to leave the region, “but only six percent say they have definite plans to leave in 2019.” Of those polled, 60 percent cited housing costs as the reason most likely to drive them away, with “cost of living overall” the second most likely rationale at 57 percent.
  • Online real estate company Redfin posts quarterly “migration reports” every few months, estimating how many of its users are shopping for homes in other cities and ranking which metros have the highest likely “outflow.” Ever since Redfin began this tally, San Francisco (a term Redfin applies to the Bay Area as a whole) has ranked in the No. 1 spot, most recently with 23.8 percent of SF users browsing out-of-town locales. The most likely destination is Sacramento—also a persistent trend for years. But as Curbed SF noted before, it’s impossible to tell how many SF Redfin users actually take the plunge, go into escrow, and leave.
  • In February, Chicago-based public relations firm Edelman released its annual Trust Barometer for California, which surveyed 1,500 California residents, including 500 from the Bay Area. Of those asked, 53 percent of Californians say they are considering leaving the state, including 50 percent of Bay Area residents. Tellingly, among Bay Area millennials, the total was 66 percent. For residents with children (under 18 years of age), the figure was 63 percent.
  • Also in February, regional think tank Joint Venture Silicon Valley released its annual Silicon Valley Index and found that “for the third year in a row, people are moving out of Silicon Valley nearly as quickly as they are moving in.”
  • In August of 2018, Washington DC-based non-profit the Public Religion Research Institute surveyed 3,300 Californians and found that 64 percent of residents statewide would advise out-of-towners to move to some other state. However, in a surprise bit of optimism, 55 percent of Bay Area residents said they would tell others to come to California for opportunities despite the gloomy attitudes of neighboring regions.
  • In June of last year, the Bay Area Council, a business-sponsored public policy advocacy group, released results of its annual survey of 1,000 Bay Area households, including 120 from SF. In those results, 46 percent of respondents said they were “likely to move out of the Bay Area in the next few years.” For the 2017 survey, that same figure was just 40 percent. One year prior, the number was 36 percent. The high cost of housing was the most commonly cited complaint about the region.
  • In February 2018, another Edelman poll found that 49 percent of 500 Bay Area residents questioned agreed with this statement: “I am considering moving away from California because of the high cost of living.”

And that’s just in the past year; polling stretching back through previous years shows a persistent trend toward pessimism, housing anxiety, and speculation about abandoning San Francisco, the Bay Area, and the entire state of California.

Despite denizens’ desires to vacate the area, San Francisco’s population continues to grow, although growth has slowed significantly in recent years.

Article source: https://sf.curbed.com/2019/3/27/18283377/survey-poll-leaving-bay-area-housing-crisis-gentrification

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People really want to leave the Bay Area, claims every survey

It happened again.

The Silicon Valley Leadership Group and Bay Area News Group released the results of a new survey of Bay Area voters this week. Among its findings: many residents say they want to leave the area in the near future.

This corresponds to roughly several years’ worth of similar public polling results, which detail discontent among the broad Bay Area public.

In fact, results like this have become so common since the start of the second tech boom and the beginning of the housing crisis that it has almost achieved meme-like levels, with each new survey bringing a distinct sense of deja vu.

To help keep it all straight, here’s what polling numbers published since 2018 say:

  • In the latest outing, a poll of 1,568 registered voters in San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costs, Santa Clara, and San Mateo counties conducted by the Silicon Valley Leadership Group for Bay Area News Group found that 44 percent of those asked say they plan to leave the region, “but only six percent say they have definite plans to leave in 2019.” Of those polled, 60 percent cited housing costs as the reason most likely to drive them away, with “cost of living overall” the second most likely rationale at 57 percent.
  • Online real estate company Redfin posts quarterly “migration reports” every few months, estimating how many of its users are shopping for homes in other cities and ranking which metros have the highest likely “outflow.” Ever since Redfin began this tally, San Francisco (a term Redfin applies to the Bay Area as a whole) has ranked in the No. 1 spot, most recently with 23.8 percent of SF users browsing out-of-town locales. The most likely destination is Sacramento—also a persistent trend for years. But as Curbed SF noted before, it’s impossible to tell how many SF Redfin users actually take the plunge, go into escrow, and leave.
  • In February, Chicago-based public relations firm Edelman released its annual Trust Barometer for California, which surveyed 1,500 California residents, including 500 from the Bay Area. Of those asked, 53 percent of Californians say they are considering leaving the state, including 50 percent of Bay Area residents. Tellingly, among Bay Area millennials, the total was 66 percent. For residents with children (under 18 years of age), the figure was 63 percent.
  • Also in February, regional think tank Joint Venture Silicon Valley released its annual Silicon Valley Index and found that “for the third year in a row, people are moving out of Silicon Valley nearly as quickly as they are moving in.”
  • In August of 2018, Washington DC-based non-profit the Public Religion Research Institute surveyed 3,300 Californians and found that 64 percent of residents statewide would advise out-of-towners to move to some other state. However, in a surprise bit of optimism, 55 percent of Bay Area residents said they would tell others to come to California for opportunities despite the gloomy attitudes of neighboring regions.
  • In June of last year, the Bay Area Council, a business-sponsored public policy advocacy group, released results of its annual survey of 1,000 Bay Area households, including 120 from SF. In those results, 46 percent of respondents said they were “likely to move out of the Bay Area in the next few years.” For the 2017 survey, that same figure was just 40 percent. One year prior, the number was 36 percent. The high cost of housing was the most commonly cited complaint about the region.
  • In February 2018, another Edelman poll found that 49 percent of 500 Bay Area residents questioned agreed with this statement: “I am considering moving away from California because of the high cost of living.”

And that’s just in the past year; polling stretching back through previous years shows a persistent trend toward pessimism, housing anxiety, and speculation about abandoning San Francisco, the Bay Area, and the entire state of California.

Despite denizens desire to vacate the area, San Francisco’s population continues to grow, although growth has slowed significantly in recent years.

Article source: https://sf.curbed.com/2019/3/27/18283377/survey-poll-leaving-bay-area-housing-crisis-gentrification

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IPO ‘tidal wave’ expected to drive up San Francisco home prices – KGO

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — IPOs, or initial public offerings, are expected this year for major tech companies which could leave employees of those companies flush with cash to spend on a house.

In San Francisco, thousands of young people are on the verge of becoming instant millionaires and buying into the housing market and driving it up.

RELATED: San Francisco opens new affordable housing building for low-income, previously homeless families

People covet living in the city by the bay. It’s expensive now. Very expensive. But buckle up for a ride up on the backs of IPOs. In the next year, major tech companies like Airbnb, Uber, Lyft and Pinterest are expected to go public with a total market capitalization of around $200 billion. And many of those employees have an equity stake in those companies.

Deniz Kahramaner is a real estate agent with Compass and a data analytics expert.

“If all the rumored IPOs happened we will see in the order of thousands of new millionaires.”

Kahramaner crunched the numbers on what might happen when they start buying single-family homes.

“We probably expect a 50 to 100-percent increase in home prices the next five to 10 years, specifically in San Francisco for single-family homes. ”

RELATED: Bay Area group brainstorming to speed up affordable housing projects

Herman Chan, with Sotheby’s International Realty, said, “Allegedly were going to have a bunch of newly minted millionaires overnight coming from the five or six IPOs happening so it remains to be seen, but no one can tell me that won’t affect the housing.”

Some sellers are even pulling their homes off the market now, intending to wait for the IPOs to materialize and for prices to go up along with buyers putting all cash on the table.

The IPOs will also bring lavish multi-million dollar parties helping San Francisco musicians and restaurants in the process.

Jay Seigan books A-list performers for parties. He said, “There are nights you drive around San Francisco and you see bars and restaurants packed out with some kind of party. This year seems pretty off the hook with all the IPOs. ”

RELATED: Survey: Majority of Bay Area residents would relocate for a job

Real estate experts say the average homebuyer will not be competing at least initially with the IPO buyers who will be looking for luxury homes and city condos.

Check out more stories and videos about Building a Better Bay Area.

Article source: https://abc7news.com/realestate/ipo-tidal-wave-expected-to-drive-up-sf-home-prices-/5178314/

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Empty lot in San Francisco’s Glen Park neighborhood on the market for $1.85M – KGO

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — There’s no sugar coating it — San Francisco’s real estate market continues to astound people.

The latest example is an empty lot in the Glen Park neighborhood.

RELATED: Silicon Valley estate expected to become most expensive in Bay Area

Three years ago, the lot sold for $950,000. Since then, the price has doubled to $1.85 million.

“It seems like a lot of money, but when it’s all said and done a 4,000-square-foot house that is close to restaurants, walk around the corner and go to a French restaurant, a sushi restaurant, it’s a great spot,” said Pete Brannigan, the real estate agent who is listing the lot.

Brannigan jokingly call this area, the “tip of Silicon Valley.” The BART station and the entrance to I-280 are just two blocks away and those company buses stop here all the time.

But the main selling point are the site plans that already exist.

The owner of the property, who’s an architect, spent the last three years going through the approval process.

He showed ABC7 a rendering of what could be built, a 4,000-square-foot home with four bedrooms and five and half bathrooms.

“If you had an approved site plan set, I would think that would make the property a little bit more valuable than if you did not.”

According to Build SF General Contractors, the going rate to build a single family home is anywhere from $500 to $600 per square foot — so a 4,000-square-foot home here would cost between $2 million and $2.4 million.

“Prices are crazy and, at some point in time, it is going to tap out. This cannot keep on going,” expressed Bill Kucera who lives in Glen Park.

“I’m not shocked but I am a little surprised,” said Mary Stafford, who lives in San Francisco.

San Francisco has eclipsed New York City as America’s most expensive city.

Brannigan agrees and tells me, “Way long time ago.”

So far, a dozen people have already asked to see the architectural plans.

See more stories about the housing market.

Article source: https://abc7news.com/realestate/empty-lot-in-sfs-glen-park-neighborhood-on-the-market-for-$185m/5216583/

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