With ties to Hollywood and Oakland’s first Black mayor, this Bay Area estate is for sale for $5.3M

“Grand Lake Villa” was built in the 1920s by William H. Corlett and Walter Reed. Reed and Corlett designed such buildings as Chabot Elementary School, the Modern Safeway Stores Office Warehouse Building on International Boulevard, the Financial Center Building, the 18-story tower constructed for the Oakland Bank of Savings and the Asian Resource Center (formerly the Hebern Electric Code Co.) on Harrison Street.

But that is only one aspect of the Villa’s star power. This home was originally commissioned by Clara and Adolph Jahnigan, whose daughter was Bernice Claire, an operetta singer and Hollywood starlet of the 1930s.

It was also home to attorney Steven Wilson, the son of Oakland’s first Black mayor, Mayor Lionel Wilson. Now, Italian-American film, television and theater actor Mario Guariso calls the Grand Lake Villa his own and has offered it for sale for $5.25 million.

The property is actually an estate, with two homes, extensive grounds, two garages, a pool and a pool house, all on a quarter acre. Such expansive luxury is rare enough already, but being located in the heart of Oakland’s Lakeshore neighborhood makes it a bit of a unicorn.

“It has this magical Mediterranean microclimate feel to it with the gardens and pool,” co-listing agent Shannon Mitchell said. “To have such a private estate of this size a block away from some of the best restaurants and shopping, you just can’t find that,” Mitchell added.

Article source: https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/slideshow/Grand-Lake-Villa-oakland-estate-for-sale-215898.php

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COVID: Rents Falling Fast In San Francisco-Bay Area Cities Due To Pandemic

SAN FRANCISCO (KPIX) – Rents continue to fall and disproportionately impact the San Francisco Bay Area housing market, according to a new study. Analysts at AdvisorSmith found that ten of the top 25 cities in the U.S. where rents are falling the most, are in the Bay Area, as compared year-to-year.

San Francisco is number 4 in the nation, after Odessa, TX (1); Midland, TX (2); and Williston, North Dakota (3).

Other Bay Area communities include Mountain View (5), Sunnyvale (6), Redwood City (8), San Mateo (11), Oakland (15) and San Jose (19).

The range of the drop has varied wildly based on location.

In San Francisco, rents have fallen from $2,650 per month to $2,081 since 2019. That’s a 26 percent drop.

In Walnut Creek (76), the rent drop was much less: only a 3.7 percent drop from $2,574 per month to $2,512.

READ: Cities Where Rents are Rising and Falling the Most

“What we’re seeing is a lot of people are leaving the East Bay. People don’t have to live in the transit-oriented districts anymore. They don’t have to be next to BART,” said Jim Brennan, a realtor with Next Home Landcastle Luxury which specializes in the East Bay suburbs.

Brennan said a lot of people are moving out of densely populated areas as their companies are not requiring them to work at the office. That extra supply makes the rent go down.

“So once they know that they don’t need a lease in a small apartment for a year, then they can go find a less expensive place and maybe with a yard and with an office,” Brennan said.

Rents of single-family homes in Danville and other suburban communities are actually going up, Brennan said, because of a combination of that increased demand and a smaller number of single-family homes available on the market.

Brendan said he is projecting a reversal of these numbers as the pandemic eases, but that could take another year or even more.

Article source: https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/12/29/covid-rents-falling-fast-in-san-francisco-bay-area-cities-due-to-pandemic/

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What Happens to SF Rents After the Vaccine?

There’s no time like the present to sign a lease in San Francisco. 

As many as 89,000 people may have left the city since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and vacancies have more than doubled since last year. According to rent reports by Zumper, the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment decreased from $3,500 in January to $2,700 in December — a 22.6 percent year-over-year decrease that marks the city’s lowest rent prices since 2013. 

For San Franciscans fortunate enough to remain employed, that’s turned the unthinkable into reality. Long waitlists and intense bidding wars for cramped, overpriced apartments have given way to weeks of free rent and endless concessions.

But what happens to rent prices once COVID-19 vaccines become widely available? While the pandemic may have long-term implications on demand for rentals, experts say that people shouldn’t expect the renter’s market to last long.

Tech Exodus

Back in March, nearly all of the city’s offices went dark as the business world shifted to remote work. Hours-long grainy Zoom calls and after-hours Slack messaging replaced hours-long in-person meetings and, well, after-hours Slack messaging. While remote work policies aren’t new in the tech world — and debate persists about the efficiency and trade-offs of the practice — the pandemic has greatly accelerated the trend. 

In May, San Francisco-headquartered companies Slack, Square, Twitter, and Coinbase announced they would permanently extend their fully-remote work policies. Facebook made a similar announcement from its headquarters in Menlo Park, with Mark Zuckerberg postulating that half the company could be working remotely within the next 5-10 years. 

That means employees previously bound to sky-high housing prices near their workplaces are leaving for more affordable locales. 

“We’re seeing a lot of migration data of people leaving the Bay Area entirely for other markets,” says Taylor Marr, lead economist at real estate brokerage website Redfin. “Some of that [migration] is in the suburban counties, where people might still want to have access to the broader labor market even if they’re working remotely.”

Migration data from Zumper shows that those leaving the Bay Area are largely moving to cheaper nearby cities. The most popular destination in 2020 was the Sacramento, Stockton, and Modesto metro area, followed by Los Angeles County and Sonoma County. 

In the short term, the tech exodus from San Francisco — along with a more general renter exodus due to economic downturn and mass unemployment — has caused the largest rent price drops in the country. In the long term, Marr says, we can expect many remote workers to continue to move to regions where they can afford cheaper housing and more space for home offices. That could lead to a decreased demand for rental properties and increased purchasing power for those who remain in the city.

Sale Pending

When your living space becomes your office, classroom, and home gym, you’re going to want more space than an apartment can provide. 

With remote work becoming more ubiquitous and mortgage rates continuing to drop, demand has shifted from the rental market to the for-sale market. As such, the same force that drove rent prices down beginning in March, led to increases in the home buying market. In November, median home prices in California rose 18.9 percent year-over-year. 

According to Marr, the relationship between the rental and for-sale housing markets acts as a “natural feedback loop” that controls prices in either sphere from rising or falling uncontrollably. 

“We can expect [this natural feedback loop] to occur in three stages,” Marr says. We’ve already experienced the first stage, where the shift in demand from the rental market into the housing market leads to a short-term decrease in rent prices. In the second phase, which we’re currently experiencing, the increased demand for houses pushes up home prices. 

Because home prices are high and rent prices remain low, that prevents an everlasting trend of people leaving the Bay Area rental market entirely. Low rents also encourage migration into the area from newcomers, which Marr notes has been already steadily happening for months.

That leads into the third phase, which Marr predicts is likely to occur sometime in the spring. The dramatic increase in home prices and decrease in rent prices may lead some rental property owners to pull properties out of the rent market and list them for sale instead.

Supply decreases in the rental market and increases in the for-sale market, which eventually has the effect of tapering down home price growth and tightening the drop in rents. By spring, he says, renters should expect to see rent prices begin to stabilize as a result of this natural feedback loop. 

But will rents in San Francisco return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon? Marr thinks that’s unlikely for two reasons. 

The first is due to mortgage rates, which are at a historic low following action by the Federal Reserve to boost the economy amid the pandemic. Low mortgage rates encourage buyers to purchase homes and keep some demand out of the rental market. 

“Pre-pandemic mortgage rates were close to 4 percent as early as last year. In order for rents to return to [pre-pandemic] amounts, we would expect mortgage rates also to return to that amount,” he says. “And the general consensus is that mortgage rates are not likely to rise very high at all in the next year or two — definitely not returning to near 4 percent levels.”

Local Recovery

The second way to get back to the level of demand that would warrant pre-pandemic rent prices, Marr says, would be a big return to the city from former and new residents. But that’s also unlikely in the short-term because housing demand is dependent on local and national economic recovery. 

“We don’t expect anything to change dramatically over the next 4-6 months,” says Venoo Kakar, an associate professor of economics at San Francisco State University who studies macroeconomics and the city’s regional housing economy. “The value of housing is very tightly linked to economic recovery … it’s the local economy’s, job growth, employment growth, and income growth that is going to determine what happens to housing.”

As the vaccine rolls out, that means keeping an eye on when companies bring employees back into the office, when students return to universities, and which sectors reopen first. People live in the city for its amenities, after all, so the return of the retail, hospitality, and arts sectors will stimulate the local economy and drive migration back into the city.

“And it can happen very quickly, because San Francisco is a very strong economy,” Kakar says.

One uncertain component of that equation is how the behavior of individuals may be changed by the pandemic. Even after a vaccine rollout, will people feel safe enough to step out and return to normal life? What about indulging in amenities that for over a year have been considered dangerous, like hanging out at a bar or attending a crowded concert?

The speed at which the local economy will rebound depends on how quickly people return to the city, how they behave, and the resources they’ll have at the tail end of the pandemic — all of which are potential drivers of demand for housing. It’s still unclear when rent prices will return to pre-pandemic levels or if they ever will, but Kakar is optimistic that we’ll start to see San Francisco recover — and rent prices slowly begin to rise again — as soon as a vaccine becomes widely available in mid-to-late spring. 

Looking Ahead

There’s evidence to suggest that the rental market in San Francisco may already be approaching its price floor. According to a December rent report by Zumper, rental price decreases in the city have slowed for the third consecutive month. 

“We’ve been very, very busy,” says Jackie Tom, who owns a leasing agency called Rentals in SF that focuses on filling vacancies for landlords. “And we’re supposed to be in the slow season.”

She’s noticed an uptick in demand for her property-matching services as the pandemic has progressed, which indicates that more people are taking advantage of low rent prices to move into the city. But despite the resurgence of interest in housing, Tom doesn’t expect the current renter’s market in San Francisco to change any time soon.

“Because there’s so many properties on the market, people have choices,” Tom says.

Locking in a tenant now also means throwing in generous moving bonuses and concessions like months of free rent — or in Tom’s experience as a property manager herself, lots of free furniture. When a prospective tenant complained about the lack of storage space in Tom’s four-bedroom Victorian property, she offered to buy complimentary IKEA closets (of the tenant’s choice!) for all the bedrooms and a shelving unit for the back porch. 

“And then I threw in a barbeque grill to seal the deal,” she laughs.

In terms of rental prices, however, Tom isn’t so sure that we’ve reached the bottom yet. The slow holiday season is typically a good time to renovate and prep units to be listed for the rental market, and many landlords who may have held off on putting vacancies on the market in hopes of better rental rates are likely to follow suit in listing properties in January and February.

“There’s a huge amount of vacancies being unloaded on the market, and people aren’t moving here,” she says, adding that the increase in supply is likely to sustain low rents until at least the end of the first quarter. 

The final verdict? Rent decreases are likely to begin leveling out within the next few months. We can expect rents in San Francisco to rise when a vaccine is widely available and the city reopens in mid-to-late spring, but they won’t return to pre-pandemic levels any time soon. 

The most expensive city in the country for renters is still the most expensive by a long shot. But if you’re fortunate enough to afford living here, take advantage of the current market to get an affordable rate. And if possible, try to lock in on a rent-controlled apartment. Prices won’t be this low again for years… barring another pandemic, of course. 

Article source: https://www.sfweekly.com/news/what-happens-to-rents-after-the-vaccine/

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Inventory Levels Start Ticking Back up, Poised To Climb

3054a SF Inventory Chart 01 19 21 Inventory Levels Start Ticking Back up, Poised To Climb

Having dropped at the end of last year with a typical culling of unsold listings and seasonal slowdown in play, along with nearly twice as many homes in contract than there were at the end of 2019, the number of homes listed for sale in San Francisco (880) has started ticking back up and there are now around twice as many homes on the market than there were at the same time last year and three times as many as there were at the start of 2015.

At a more granular level, there are currently 110 percent more condos on the market than there were at the same time last year and 55 percent more single-family homes.

And while the percentage of homes on the market in San Francisco with a reduced list price has dropped to 26 percent, driven by the aforementioned culling of unsold listings which are likely return to the market with “new,” but not officially reduced, list prices, that’s eleven (11) percentage points higher than at the same time last year with an “expectation gap” of around 6 percent between the average list price per square foot of the homes which are in contract and those which are not.

Expect inventory levels to climb over the next quarter and likely through the middle of the year.

Article source: http://socketsite.com/archives/2021/01/inventory-levels-start-ticking-back-up-poised-to-climb.html

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On Clubhouse, a conversation about ‘the future of S.F.’ sparks familiar debate

The conversation about the “Future of SF” was supposed to be a small affair, just a few dozen people chatting on Clubhouse, the latest must-have, invite-only Silicon Valley app. That was according to the discussion’s host, Michelle Tandler, who tweeted about the event to her 13,000 followers a day before.

Her co-host, Mike Solana, a vice president of venture capital firm Founders Fund, who is widely known for skewering San Francisco government and dunking on anti-tech sentiment, retweeted the notice to his nearly 40,000 followers.

“We’ll be having beers, talking future of SF, and seeing if anybody joins us. *Prayer-hands emoji*,” Tandler wrote. “Re invites – reply here if you need one. I bet there are some people with extras.”

This, naturally, is not at all what happened.

Instead, the discussion quickly turned to crime and public safety, attracted the attention (and then the participation) of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, grew to nearly 3,000 listeners and drew accusations of racism after Black and Latino participants determined they had not been invited to or represented in a conversation that was, ostensibly, about the future of a city where many have lived for generations.

It was a moment that encapsulated two of the city’s familiar conflicts: the friction between moderate, affluent San Franciscans and progressive city leadership, perfectly embodied by Boudin, a former public defender who is arguably the most progressive elected prosecutor in the country; and the tension over a lack of people of color in conversations about crime and criminal justice, when they’re often disproportionately affected by both.

It was, in other words, a classic internet-fueled meltdown that seemed to revolve around a few all-too-common questions: Whose city is this? Whose concerns matter the most? And who gets to determine its future?

Briefly, for the uninitiated (and uninvited), Clubhouse is a San Francisco-based “drop-in” audio platform where people can visit digital “rooms” and listen to live conversations. If so moved, a listener can “raise their hand” to indicate they’d like to be allowed onto the virtual “stage” to speak. Moderators — in this case, Tandler and Solana — are in charge of fielding those requests.

Clubhouse rooms can range from guided meditations and workshops on how to grow your social media following to discussions about Caribbean herbs and sex talks for singles. All conversations are contemporaneous; they aren’t saved or archived. That gives the app a certain immediacy — if you don’t catch the dialogue in real time, you’ll miss it (unless someone has covertly recorded the discussion, a no-no). But it also presents significant challenges for moderation, something for which the app has come under fire more than once.

For the past year, Tandler, a lifelong San Franciscan who is working on launching a life-skills education app, has dedicated a significant percentage of her time — 10%, she guesses — to learning about the city with a self-described focus on “crime, the drug epidemic and homelessness.” This includes many tweets about the city’s homeless population, the increase in certain crimes, anecdotes about friends leaving and other perceived failures of local government. “My main goal is to engage people in a dialogue and get more people talking about San Francisco local politics,” she said.

Her tweets sometimes include the sort of language that would make many progressives wary — comments about the “broken windows theory” or the how the city needs to be “tough on crime.” At the same time, she made it clear multiple times in an interview Friday that she likes the progressive Boudin and is increasingly understanding of the constraints his office is under. (Solana, who has called for Boudin’s resignation, is decidedly less so.)

Tandler says she’s been wanting to host a public conversation with Boudin for a while now, but Thursday’s virtual gathering was not supposed to be that. Rather, she describes it as a test run to check out Clubhouse’s tech. She’s been a member of the app for a while but had previously only dropped into conversations; this was her first go at moderating.

In tweets and in an interview after the Clubhouse event, Tandler said she had expected it to amount to a few dozen people talking about the much-discussed tech exodus and maybe real estate prices.

Instead the conversation attracted an audience of hundreds early on and, according to multiple interviews and recaps of the conversation, Solana and Delian Asparouhov, a principal at Founders Fund, swiftly focused their comments on an increase in local crime and placed the blame, at least in part, at the feet of Boudin. Homicides and burglaries were both up considerably year over year in 2020, while car break-ins, sexual assaults and other assaults were down. As a result, Boudin is facing a recall campaign just a year into his tenure, and there’s an ongoing effort to fund an independent journalist dedicated solely to investigating the district attorney and his office.

Tipped off to the conversation by a constituent, Boudin was soon in the room, raising his hand to speak.

“He logged on and heard a tremendous amount of misinformation and disinformation,” Rachel Marshall, Boudin’s communication director wrote in an email to The Chronicle. “He was invited to join the conversation, and did so, intending to spend just a few minutes correcting misconceptions.”

Tandler says Boudin’s appearance was a surprise and a welcome one. (She had invited Boudin to the Clubhouse app a couple days prior, she said, but not to the “Future of SF” discussion specifically.) What followed initially, Tandler later tweeted, was a “heated conversation that took on an overly aggressive tone.”

With Boudin participating, the event went viral, attracting around 3,000 listeners. Tandler, by this point, was “feeling nervous and surprised.”

Eventually, tempers settled enough that the conversation turned into a QA with Boudin. He spoke about how the pandemic had led to a logjam in jury trials, his office’s decision to enter into a plea agreement with Troy McAlister, the man accused of killing two women while driving intoxicated on New Year’s Eve, and the ongoing push to reduce the state’s prison population. Tandler described this part of the event as “pretty powerful.” It’s not often that one of the city’s most high-profile politicians faces a panel of critics, on the fly, before an audience of thousands.

Boudin wound up leaving the room after about an hour, just as one of the speakers asked Nancy Tung, Boudin’s onetime political rival and persistent critic to weigh in on how she’d charge a hypothetical crime. “I’m going to gracefully exit because we’re in a land of speculation,” Boudin said on his way out.

As all of this was happening, frustration was growing elsewhere. Even before Boudin had joined the discussion, other Clubhouse users had caught wind of the “Future of SF” conversation and noted that many of the speakers were white people advocating tough-on-crime policies that have historically hurt marginalized communities and people of color the most. (Boudin’s office was quick to highlight this dynamic in its statement sent to The Chronicle that said that Boudin was “disappointed to see a lack of diversity in the conversation and the exclusion of important voices of those who have personal experiences with the criminal justice system.”)

Bivette Brackett, a community organizer and co-founder of the advocacy group SF Black Wallstreet, joined the Clubhouse conversation early and says she was immediately struck by the tone. She described it as “Nextdoor on Clubhouse,” referencing another online platform that often draws criticism for giving space to covert racism from white and wealthy participants. Speakers in the “Future of SF” room, she said, were talking about how “they had to take our San Francisco back” and calling for increased law enforcement, all of which struck her as dog-whistle politics.

When Brackett and others raised their hands to speak, she says, they were ignored. Tandler says she was overwhelmed by the number of requests, but Brackett doesn’t buy that (at least one other speaker, angel investor Balaji Srinivasan, was allowed up to the stage during the fray). Nor does she buy that it was a complete surprise that Boudin showed up. It’s not uncommon, she says, for celebrities and politicians to join rooms on Clubhouse after being alerted that they’re a topic of conversation.

“We’re supposed to be in community,” Brackett said. “The purpose of Clubhouse is to have a balanced conversation. It was the weirdest. This is the most destructive asinine group I’ve seen on Clubhouse ever.”

“The conversation was completely tone deaf and privileged,” said Tinisch Hollins, another co-founder of SF Black Wallstreet. “This really hits home for me because this has been a long-standing issue.”

Eventually, a spin-off room, started by Leon “DNas” Sykes, popped up, this one called “‘Future of SF’ really means ‘Make SF more white.’” Sykes lives in Oakland, but when a friend told him about the conversation, it reminded him of others he’d seen on Clubhouse. “A lot of these rooms are mostly white people who are in tech having these conversations about the Bay Area or San Francisco,” he said. So he made one for the people he thought were being left out. Screenshots from that room show the audience included many people of color.

Brackett eventually stepped in to help moderate that room’s discussion, which drew around 800 people (including former city Supervisor Jane Kim) and became a freewheeling conversation among longtime San Franciscans and those who said they’d been pushed out. Other speakers, including Krea Gomez-Jones, countered what they saw as the bad-faith arguments being made in the original room.

“The point of contention comes around this audacity to be concerned about the future of S.F. when so much of the conversation is around whether I should leave or not,” Gomez-Jones said later in an interview. “I’m really grateful that we were able to hold space for Black and brown San Franciscans. We’re not invited to these conversations unless we make them ourselves.”

By the next morning, nobody seemed particularly happy.

On Twitter, progressives and people of color were still calling out the lack of diversity — in skin color, in class, in point of view — of the original conversation. On Twitter, Solana said he regretted (eventually) politely interviewing Boudin. “It was chaotic, it was nebulous, it was manipulative,” he tweeted. And Tandler, who received messages of both support and derision in the days that followed, wondered what she could have done differently and whether she would ever host a discussion on the platform again. “I don’t know if I have thick enough skin.”

Boudin’s office was succinct in its sign-off: The district attorney, a statement read, was “hopeful that future conversations around criminal justice in San Francisco center people from communities most impacted by, and with more knowledge of, the legal system.”

In the end, of course, there was no consensus about the future of San Francisco — not after one night of conversation on an invite-only app with no public record — rather just a tense reminder of the city’s persistent divisions and the voices often left out.

San Francisco Chronicle assistant audience editor Jenna Fowler contributed to this story.

Ryan Kost is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: rkost@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @RyanKost

Article source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/culture/article/On-Clubhouse-a-conversation-about-the-future-15886586.php

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