“We are experiencing the same as others who have reported, decent spring followed by a poor summer,” said Stephen Paul of Mid-Atlantic Builders. “Through June, sales were up 16 percent then dropped off the table in July and August.”

Home builder confidence stalled nationally in September, after rising steadily, especially at the beginning of 2013.

“While builder confidence is holding at the highest level in nearly eight years, many are reporting some hesitancy on the part of buyers due to the sharp increase in interest rates,” said Rick Judson, the National Association of Home Builders’ chairman.

If interest rates retreat to where they were at the beginning of the year, mortgage refinances will likely rebound again, especially since they have dropped so dramatically in the past six months.

As for home sales, that is not an easy call. Sales have been hampered not just by rising mortgage rates, but by very low inventory, anemic construction, and still-pervasive negative equity among potential move-up buyers. Lackluster job and wage growth, especially among younger Americans, has not helped either.

(Read more: Tepper: Fed wants growth first, second, and third)

We also know that while the Federal Reserve may not be tapering now, it will have to eventually. Some say it should do so sooner rather than later.

“Rip this Band-Aid off already,” said Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group. “There will never be the right time to cut back, and today was the perfect opportunity to do so because the market was ready for it. Playing games now over this with the market will not smooth the eventual ease.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101043610

“I think the higher stock market and low rates is a function of the Fed [Federal Reserve] just pumping liquidity into the system,” said Paul Miller of FBR. “What you see, I believe, is some of that liquidity is leaking into the stock market, which is resulting in higher valuations for stocks. But the bond market is still flush with liquidity, and that is keeping mortgage rates low.”

Should the Fed start winding down its asset purchases later this year, mortgage rates will rise. That would make home buying more expensive in an already rising price environment. But is that enough to stop housing’s momentum? Perhaps not.

(Read More: What’s Really Behind Home Price Gains)

“For mortgage payments to return to their long-term average of 22 percent of disposable income, 30-year fixed rates would have to rise all the way to 9 percent,” noted Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. “Accordingly, we’re optimistic that the nascent improvement in mortgage applications will be sustained.”

In any case, it hasn’t been the rates holding borrowers back, but the availability of mortgage credit. That may be easing as well.

Nearly 10 percent of senior loan officers surveyed by the Federal Reserve in April reported easing their lending standards for low-risk mortgages. That’s an increase from the previous quarter. Banks were not, however, more willing to lend to borrowers with lower credit scores. This as 44 percent of loan officers surveyed reported demand for “prime” mortgages was moderately stronger.

(Read More: Old Ills Still Hit Big Banks)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100720364

The one positive in all the uncertainty surrounding the nation’s debt was a plunge in Treasury yields, which in turn sent mortgage rates to record lows.

The 30 year fixed hit a near-low of 4.45 percent last week from 4.57 percent, and the 15 year made a new low of 3.52 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Those low rates pushed refinance applications up 7.8 percent and purchase applications up 5.2 percent (both seasonally adjusted).

So are we housing geeks now jumping for joy? All good? Maybe not so much.

“Refinance application volume increased, but even though 30-year mortgage rates are back below 4.5 percent, the refinance index is still almost 30 percent below last year’s level. Factors such as negative equity and a weak job market continue to constrain borrowers,” notes the MBA’s VP of research and economics, Michael Fratantoni. “Purchase activity increased off of a low base, returning to levels of one month ago, but remains weak by historical standards.”

So even ridiculously low rates are not exactly boosting the housing recovery; that’s because rates have been historically low for a while.

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