“There is a huge population that have benefitted from adjustable rate mortgages. When the rates adjusted, they adjusted down. Those homeowners have been riding those low, one-year arms. If they start to hear about rates going up, they may come out of the woodwork to lock into fixed rates,” says Strent.

That may be, but 88 percent of loans outstanding today are fixed, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Just 12 percent are adjustable rate. Even if rates do not rise any higher than they are today, which they may not, they would have to fall below last year’s lows to see the high refinance volume of 2012 continue in 2013.

(Read More: Link Between Credit and Mortgages: Not What You Think)

“The refi apocalypse is upon us,” says Mark Hanson, a mortgage analyst in Northern California. “The thought is that there are a bunch of homeowners on the fence who haven’t refi’d who will all jump in thinking they will miss out. The theory is 100 percent nonsense. The series will simply plunge. That’s because after 16 months of sub 4 percent rates — and every bank loan officer and mortgage broker doing everything they can after a long mortgage banking income drought that ended with Twist — there is nobody left to refi. In fact, the only reason refi applications stayed flat in Q3 and Q4 was because they passed a new law allowing refinances regardless of the LTV [loan to value]…the HARP unlimited LTV refi.”

While the Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, a signal that the economic recovery is improving and even the slightest hint that the Fed could end its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, could push rates slightly higher.

“The Fed likely won’t use its statement to markets to finger a specific date on which QE3 will end, but that won’t stop investors from guessing. If the herd believes that QE3 will terminate within the next 6 months, mortgage rates will likely rise. If QE3 is believed to extend into 2014 and beyond, mortgage rates will likely fall,” writes Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage in his blog.

(Read more: What to Expect from Interest Rates This Year)

While refinances may suffer under even slightly higher rates, more important to the housing recovery is new mortgages to purchase homes. Purchase applications are still running at half the rate they were in 2007, when last the Dow hit a new high. Small moves in mortgage rates do affect purchasing power, but lending standards are a far bigger driver today. New regulations for lenders and a consolidation of lending overall to the mega-banks are certainly slowing, and in some cases stalling, the process for some would-be buyers.

(Read More: Cities That Are Most Prepared for Retirement)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100420382

Most consider President’s Day weekend as the official start of the spring housing season.

There is, therefore, no more crucial time than now to have reliable data at our disposal for home sales, prices and inventories.

How else do buyers, sellers and investors know how to proceed? Unfortunately, the housing crash itself has undermined the veracity of those readings.

With the boom and the bust came the attention. Housing brought our economy down, and in doing so, boosted itself to the headlines. As with any big story, a cottage industry sprang up around it. Data providers came out of the woodwork, and as online sale and foreclosure web sites proliferated, so too did their ability to add to that data pool. The result is double edged: On the downside, some data providers are less-than accurate, but on the upside, their sheer numbers provide a system of checks and balances, tempering the most outrageous assertions.

So it seems sort of appropriate that today, as a new controversy swarms around potential errors in home sales figures from the National Association of Realtors, the exalted and much-contested SP/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released.

It reports that home prices are dangerously close to an official double dip. Other data providers have been asserting recently that SP/Case-Shiller is too bullish (and of course too bearish).

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41719022?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS