homesmillbrae.com » Villacorta

Here’s What Is Really Behind Home Price Gains

Tue, 07 May 2013 20:40:22 +0000

This is also a repeat sales index, but it is based on a three-month running average. The National Association of Realtors reported median home prices up nearly 12 percent in March, but being a median, that number relies on the mix of homes sold. It is higher because fewer low-end distressed homes and more higher-priced, non-distressed homes are selling; that skews the median higher.

Those are just a few, but suffice it to say prices are rising based on higher demand and abnormally low supply. Supply, ironically, is low because so far regular home sellers who don’t have to move would rather not sell into a market that is just beginning to recovery.

Also, many homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages, and therefore they would have to pay into their current homes in addition to paying for a new one.

(Read More: Old Ills Still Hit Big Banks)

But why are the price jumps so high? Some say it’s all relative.

“Market observers shouldn’t be fooled by the large headline numbers,” warned Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, a data provider. “Last year was a turning point for the market where the year started with prices at virtually their lowest point and saw a very strong correction through the year. Much of the gains we see right now in the yearly trends are a reflection of the market lows in 2012, rather than a function of recent short-term momentum.”

Villacorta expects these big gains to subside as the market stabilizes and more supply comes up for sale. He sees the recovery of housing itself, not some broader economic resurgence, as housing’s main driver.

“Moderate improvements in the broader economic landscape likely haven’t offered potential homebuyers strong reason to jump back in at the start of the season. We do expect to see more buyers and sellers ready to take action over the next several months as rising prices continue to free up some underwater mortgages,” he offered.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100715894

Housing Already Shows Signs of a New Bubble

Wed, 06 Feb 2013 04:10:27 +0000

Barely a year in, home prices rose over eight percent annually in December, according to a new report from CoreLogic. While still down double digits from their 2006 peak, prices are suddenly soaring again and raising some serious red flags.

(Read More: Is the Refi ‘Apocalypse’ Really Upon Us?)

Analysts at Clear Capital, which runs a four-month moving average price index, note that January’s numbers show, “momentum stalls.” While they blame this on seasonal slowdowns, they point to Florida as a concern.

“Florida metros, namely Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville, were all missing from the top 15 performing market list. Since September 2011, at least one of these markets made the list,” cautions Dr. Alex Villacorta, Director of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. “While this isn’t confirmation that the recovery is finished in the sunshine state, it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. These markets led the recovery in late 2011, and share some of the hallmarks for recovering markets overall.”

Florida’s housing market has been driven by distressed homes, and investors buying them at a rapid pace.

Other markets that saw the most distress during the housing crash, like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of California, have also seen so much investor demand, that prices are up by double digits from a year ago.

(Read More: New Housing Fears: Home Prices Rising Too Fast?)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100435276

Bay Area home prices expected to stabilize in 2012

Mon, 09 Jan 2012 10:58:31 +0000

After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.

Stabilizing prices are a sign of a healthier market, even though homebuyers still face challenges — tight credit, not many homes for sale and competition from investors paying cash.

In a report to be released Monday, Clear Capital, a real estate valuations company in Truckee, predicts that prices will remain almost flat this year — compared with a 4.7 percent drop in 2011 — in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area, including Contra Costa County. Silicon Valley should see a 1.6 percent increase in home prices, compared with a 2.5 percent drop last year, the company said.

“This region overall is doing pretty well,” said Clear Capital research director Alex Villacorta.

In three of the past four years, Bay Area home prices have declined from the previous year, including a dramatic 35 percent drop for the San Francisco metro area in 2008 and a 28 percent drop in Silicon Valley that year. Only in 2010 were there slight increases, followed by last year’s drop.

“We haven’t seen any stretches of normal activity for the last 20 years or so” in the Bay Area, he said, noting that prices had rocketed upward in the years before the decline. “It’s really been a roller coaster, with exception of now, when things are settling and leveling off.”

Nationally, the company

sees a 0.2 percent gain in home prices in 2012, compared to a 2.1 percent drop in 2011. The San Jose area’s expected performance was in the top third and San Francisco was in the top half of 50 major metropolitan areas analyzed.

Across the country, housing could help repair the economy, said economist Sung Won Sohn at Cal State Channel Islands. Sohn, who recently released his own economic forecast, is predicting a housing-led recovery for the U.S. this year based partly on low interest rates and renewed multifamily home construction, which usually brings gains in the overall housing market. And prices, he said, are about as low as they can go.

“No one is expecting a dramatic fall in house prices,” Sohn said. “That gets people buying houses.”

The Bay Area, especially Silicon Valley, is already doing better, he said, “because the underlying economy seems to be doing better. I think we will see a somewhat faster recovery in the Bay Area.”

In the past two years, home prices bobbed up and down in response to government programs to encourage sales, as well as fluctuations in the number of foreclosures and short sales, in which homes are sold for less than is owed on them.

But agents say too few homes are on the market, and buyers still face tight credit.

“People are in escrow forever, and they finally give up,” said Richard Calhoun of Creekside Realty. “That is what I see as the biggest hindrance on the market.”

Investors paying cash for lower-priced houses remain a big obstacle for people like Nicole Collison, 25, a San Jose schoolteacher trying to buy her first home.

Motivated by the high rent she’s paying and the market’s current low interest rates and prices, Collison has looked at nearly 50 houses since October and bid on half a dozen of them, only to lose out every time to cash buyers.

“We’re always outbid,” she said. “It has been quite a challenge.”

But she hasn’t given up.

“We’re going to keep at it. We’re hopeful after the beginning of the year more things will come on to the market.”

In the East Bay, about 20 percent of the homes are selling rapidly, said Unhei Kang with Grubb Co. in Berkeley. A nicely presented home in a desirable area will draw multiple bids, she said.

“I don’t know what the future will hold, but to me it seems like it is stable. There are definitely buyers out there. Maybe it has to do with the low interest rates. A lot of buyers are feeling it’s not going to get any better than this,” Kang said.

The housing market is “spotty” in Contra Costa County, with some areas doing well and others not, said Barbara Safran, president of the Contra Costa Association of Realtors. “I think we’ve dropped about as low as it can get, unless some crazy thing happens in the economy and the world.”

The median price for single-family homes dropped about 4 percent last year, Safran said, with condos dropping about 4.6 percent.

“We’re predicting that it’s probably going to stay the way it is for a while. I think we’re going to continue to see a lot of short sales. The foreclosure market is still iffy. It’s a question of how quickly banks are going to put out those foreclosures.”

Contact Pete Carey at 408-920-5419.

Bay Area home prices

San Jose metro area
2011- down 2.5%
2012 forecast – up 1.6 %
San Francisco metro area
2011 – down 4.7%
2012 forecast – up 0.1%
source: Clear Capital.

Article source: http://www.mercurynews.com/business-headlines/ci_19691779

Analyst: Bay Area home prices will rise

Tue, 22 Nov 2011 06:24:50 +0000

Speakers at a UC Berkeley real estate conference Monday noted that healthy job growth in the Bay Area’s tech and social media sectors is having a positive impact on residential real estate between San Jose and San Francisco. But the housing markets for California and the nation are still struggling from high numbers of foreclosures and a lack of consumer confidence.

“Are we out of the woods? No, not at all,” said Alexander Villacorta, director of research at Clear Capital, a real estate information firm.

His firm predicts a slight rise in Bay Area home prices over the next two years. But prices likely will drop further in Los Angeles and Riverside counties.

Despite historically low interest rates and a plunge in home prices, many consumers today aren’t purchasing single-family homes, the experts said. Some have difficulty qualifying for loans under today’s tougher credit standards. Others are hesitating due to uncertainty concerning the direction of home prices and the amount of distressed properties that still must come to market.

“We’ve got what I call analysis paralysis,” RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said of consumers. “They’re not buying. They’re waiting.”

Both men were speakers at UC Berkeley’s 34th annual real estate and economics symposium at the Westin St. Francis Hotel.

Saccacio said both the nation and California still have large amounts of distressed properties, including homeowners in default and those who owe banks far more than their homes are now worth. At current absorption rates, he said, it could take the state 28 to 33 months to work through that supply.

Speakers also suggested that global worries would weigh down the housing market.

Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics, said the United States is headed for a “choppy recovery” over the next year, and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis “could spin out of control.”

“I think there is some chance that we could get a double dip,” said Rosen. He placed the chances at only 30 percent, “but it scares me.”

Nonetheless, Rosen and others insisted that at today’s prices and interest rates, the rental housing sector offers investors a chance for significant returns. Rental properties will benefit from strong demand by renters and from coming inflation, which he suggested seems inevitable given the nation’s debt problems.

“Real estate is better than gold, and not as volatile,” he said.

Article source: http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20111121/BUSINESS/111129945/1339/business?Title=Analyst-Bay-Area-home-prices-will-rise