Article source: http://southsanfrancisco.patch.com/groups/real-estate/p/local-home-prices-among-highest-in-bay-area

La Jolla, CA – April 18, 2013 – (RealEstateRama) — Bay Area home sales fell below a year earlier for the second consecutive month in March as demand continued to outstrip supply in many markets. While low-end sales fell sharply compared with March 2012, $500,000-plus transactions jumped, helping to push the median sale price up on a year-over-year basis for the 12th consecutive month, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 7,263 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 34.4 percent from 5,404 the month before, and down 6.0 percent from 7,723 in March 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

It’s normal for sales to jump between February and March, with that gain averaging 39.5 percent since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. March sales have ranged from a low of 4,898 in 2008 to a high of 12,645 in 2004. Last month’s sales were 17.1 percent lower than the March average of 8,758.

The median price paid for a home in the nine-county Bay Area last month was $436,000. That was up 7.7 percent from $405,000 in February and up 21.8 percent from $358,000 in March last year.

The median has risen on a year-over-year basis for 12 consecutive months, with double-digit year-over-year gains the last ten months, and increases above 20 percent for the past five months.

Still, last month’s median was 34.4 percent lower than the $665,000 peak in June and July of 2007. In March 2009 the median hit its post-peak low of $290,000. That trough was an almost absurdly low level for the Bay Area, reflecting both widespread price declines as well as robust sales of heavily discounted inland foreclosures at a time high-end sales were all but dormant.

It appears that well over half of the 21.8 percent year-over-year increase in March’s median sale price reflects rising home prices. It’s Economics 101: Prices go up as growing demand meets an exceptionally low supply of homes for sale. However, a portion of the March median’s year-over-year gain reflects a change in market mix – sales of low-cost distress homes have fallen sharply, while sales of pricier move-up homes have shot up.

“Higher sales in the middle and top of the housing market reflect improved consumer confidence, ultra-low mortgage rates and the unleashing of more pent-up demand than many anticipated. There’s been a shift in psychology, where more people worry prices will rise and fewer fear a decline. It’s drawn a lot of folks off the fence following a long stretch of sub-par sales, especially in the higher price ranges. In the more affordable markets, we’ve seen a big drop in foreclosures, which limits the supply of homes for sale. Then you have homeowners who still can’t sell because they owe more than their homes are worth,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

“The more prices rise, though, the more likely we’ll see a lot more people put their homes on the market,” Walsh added. “There’s pent-up demand among potential sellers, too, and many will try to move as soon as it makes sense. A substantial jump in inventory would at least moderate home price growth.”

Last month the number of homes that sold for less than $500,000 fell 18.9 percent compared with March 2012, while the number that sold for $500,000 or more rose 25.2 percent, DataQuick reported.

Distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up about 30 percent of the resale market in March. Last month’s figure, which was the lowest in five years, was down from about 35 percent in February and down from about 49.0 percent a year ago.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 10.7 percent of Bay Area resales last month, down from 14.0 percent in February, and down from 25.5 percent a year ago. Last month’s level was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 10.1 percent of the resale market in November 2007. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average over the past 18 years is 10.2 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 19.0 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 20.5 percent in February and down from 23.8 percent a year earlier.

Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 39.7 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from 37.1 percent in February, and up from 30.7 percent a year ago. Jumbo usage dropped as low as 17.1 percent in January 2009. Before the credit crunch struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Bay Area purchase loan market.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), another indicator of mortgage availability, accounted for 12.7 percent of the Bay Area’s home purchase loans last month. That was up from 11.0 percent in February, and up from 11.6 percent a year ago. Since 2000, ARMs have accounted for a monthly average of about 42 percent of all purchase loans. ARMs hit a low of 3.0 percent of purchase loans in January 2009.

Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular, low-down-payment choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 12.3 percent of home purchase mortgages in March. That was down from 14.6 percent in February and down from 20.9 percent a year earlier. In recent months the FHA level has been the lowest since summer 2008, reflecting both tougher qualifying standards and the difficulties first-time buyers have competing with investors and other cash buyers.

The most active lenders to Bay Area home buyers last month were Wells Fargo with 14.8 percent of the purchase loan market, Stearns Lending with 4.5 percent, and RPM Mortgage with 3.6 percent.

Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 27.3 percent of all Bay Area homes. That was down from 28.7 percent in February, and up from 24.2 percent a year ago. Absentee buyers paid a median $324,000 in March, up 29.6 percent from $250,000 a year earlier.

Buyers who appear to have paid all cash – meaning no sign of a corresponding purchase loan was found in the public record – accounted for 31.1 percent of sales in March. That was down from 32.3 percent the month before and up from 29.4 percent a year earlier. The monthly average going back to 1988 is 12.9 percent. Cash buyers paid a median $325,000 in March, up 30.0 percent from $250,000 a year earlier.

San Diego-based DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated for Alameda and San Francisco counties.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,579. That was up from $1,460 in February, and up from $1,359 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s payment was 44.1 percent below the typical payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 58.7 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.

Indicators of market distress continue to decline. Foreclosure activity is well below year-ago and peak levels reached in the last few years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low, and down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.

All Homes #Sold #Sold Pct. $Median Median Pct.

Source: DataQuick, www.DQNews.com

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157

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Article source: http://www.realestaterama.com/2013/04/18/bay-area-home-sales-dip-below-2012-level-again-median-sale-price-rises-ID020407.html

(Read More: New Housing Fears: Home Prices Rising Too Fast?)

The PHLX index closed at an all-time high on July 18, 2005. It then dropped a staggering 81 percent to a trough in March of 2009. It has made a remarkable comeback in just the past year and a half but is still 34 percent below that peak in 2005. Only one component of the index, Texas-based Lennox International, a provider of climate control solutions for heating, air conditioning and refrigeration markets, is above its 2005 peak.

The overall quick pick-up in the home builders has some calling the stocks overvalued. They did, in fact, take a pause last fall, as some analysts downgraded various builders as being too hot for the fundamentals. Then come December, they began climbing again.

“Just because the stocks are overvalued doesn’t mean they are not going to go up more,” says David Goldberg, a housing analyst at UBS. “It’s a momentum play.”

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Goldberg warns, however, that there is a lot of growth baked into these stock valuations for 2013, expectations that may be tough to meet. Big builders like Lennar and DR Horton continue to report growth in new orders, but in their latest reports that growth didn’t meet expectations, and the stocks responded accordingly.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100405275

     A total of 8,579 new and resale homes were sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 1.4 percent from 8,461 in July, and up 14.2 percent from 7,513 for August 2011.

     A July-to-August sales increase is normal for the Bay Area summer season. August sales have varied from 6,688 in 1992 to 13,940 in 2004, while the average for all months of August since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics start, is 9,638.

     The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $410,000. That was down 2.6 percent from $421,000 in July, and up 10.8 percent from $370,000 in August 2011.

     The Bay Area median almost always drops from July to August. Roughly half the year-over-year increase in the median can be attributed to a shift in market mix.

     The median’s low point of the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009. The peak was $665,000 in June/July 2007. Around half of the median’s peak-to-trough drop was the result of a decline in home values, while the other half was the result of a shift in the sales mix.

     “Most economists agree that the housing market is off bottom. But there’s a big gap between the market being ‘off bottom’ and being normal, which it’s not. The single biggest bottleneck is still the dysfunctional mortgage lending market. It’ll be interesting to see how yesterday’s announcement that the Fed is going to buy mortgage-backed securities plays out,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

     Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 38.7 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from a revised 38.6 percent in July, and up from 32.9 percent a year ago. Last month was the highest since 43.4 percent in November 2007. In the current cycle, jumbo usage dropped to as low as 17.1 percent in January 2009. Before the credit crunch struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Bay Area purchase loan market.

     Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), an important indicator of mortgage availability, declined again last month, accounting for 12.8 percent of the Bay Area’s home purchase loans. That was down from a revised 13.5 percent in July, and down from 16.0 percent in August last year. Since 2000, ARMs have accounted for 49.4 percent of all purchase loans. ARMs hit a low of 3.0 percent of loans in January 2009.

     Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 16.1 percent of all Bay Area home purchase mortgages last month. That was the same as in July and down from 21.1 percent a year earlier.

     The most active lenders to Bay Area home buyers last month were Wells Fargo with 17.0 percent of the market, RPM Mortgage with 4.6 percent and Bank of America with 3.3 percent. A year ago, Bank of America’s market share was 8.2 percent.

     Last month 40.2 percent of Bay Area sales were for $500,000 or more, down from a revised 42.0 percent in July, and up from 35.9 percent in August 2011. The low for the current cycle was January 2009, when just 22.7 percent of sales crossed the $500,000 threshold. Over the past 10 years, a monthly average of 48.0 percent of homes sold for $500,000-plus.

     Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up about 33.8 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was down from 34.0 percent in July and down from 43.8 percent a year ago.

     Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 14.9 percent of resales in August, down from a revised 15.1 percent in July, and down from 25.7 percent a year ago. Last month was the lowest since 14.0 percent in December 2007. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The Bay Area’s monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 17 years is about 10 percent.

     Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 18.9 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was the same as in July and up from 18.1 percent a year earlier.

     Absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 23.0 percent of all Bay Area homes sold last month, up from a revised 22.6 percent in July, and up from 21.2 percent a year ago. Absentee buyers paid a median $264,500 in August, up 5.8 percent from a year ago.

     Buyers who appear to have paid all cash – meaning there was no evidence of a corresponding purchase loan in the public record – accounted for 28.0 percent of August sales. That was up from a revised 27.6 percent in July, and up from 27.5 percent a year ago. The monthly average going back to 1988 is 12.6 percent. Cash buyers paid a median $273,250 in August, up 9.3 percent from a year earlier.

     San Diego-based DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.

     The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,491, down from $1,522 in July, and up from $1,460 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, last month’s payment was 46.6 percent below the typical payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 60.6 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.

     Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but below peak levels reached over the last three years. Financing with multiple mortgages is low and down payment sizes are stable, DataQuick reported.

(chart)

All Homes           #Sold    #Sold     Pct.     $Median      Median      Pct.

                   Aug-11   Aug-12     Chng      Aug-11      Aug-12      Chng

Alameda             1,498    1,828    22.0%    $349,000    $380,000      8.9%

Contra Costa        1,576    1,649     4.6%    $260,500    $300,000     15.2%

Marin                 264      341    29.2%    $619,500    $634,000      2.3%

Napa                  121      160    32.2%    $320,000    $350,000      9.4%

Santa Clara         1,731    1,892     9.3%    $492,000    $542,750     10.3%

San Francisco         484      625    29.1%    $618,500    $700,000     13.2%

San Mateo             678      716     5.6%    $570,000    $592,500      3.9%

Solano                595      693    16.5%    $185,000    $190,000      2.7%

Sonoma                566      675    19.3%    $305,000    $345,000     13.1%

Bay Area            7,513    8,579    14.2%    $370,000    $410,000     10.8%

Source: DataQuick, DQNews.com

Article source: http://www.kionrightnow.com/story/19578820/bay-area-august-home-sales-highest-since-2006

The median price for all new and resale homes throughout the nine counties in June was $417,000, up 10.4 percent from a year earlier, according to DataQuick, a San Diego real estate service. That was the highest since August 2008 and a big jump from the trough of $290,000 in March 2009, but still far short of the peak of $665,000 in the summer of 2007.

“This reflects a market that’s slowly moving back toward normalcy,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst. “The bulk of the regional and countywide gains in median is the result of fewer foreclosures and other lower-cost homes selling and more mid- to high-priced homes.”

Decline in values

About half of the median’s drop over the real estate downturn came from a different composition of homes sold (more low-end homes results in a lower median), while the other half came from a decline in home values, DataQuick said.

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales in which homes are sold for less than what is owed on the mortgage – continued to decline. Distressed sales were 36.1 percent of the resale market, compared with 44.3 percent a year earlier.

The distressed sales were almost evenly split between foreclosure resales (18.1 percent) and short sales (18 percent). At their peak in February 2009, foreclosures accounted for 52 percent of resales, DataQuick said.

The 8,577 homes that sold in the month was up 7.2 percent from a year earlier, DataQuick said.

Real estate agents continue to report that inventories are low in the Bay Area, which increases buyer competition and drives up prices. Properties are selling much more quickly than in the past.

“We usually have a two-month agreement with clients, which gives them a nice marketing period to have our items in a home,” said Jeff Schlarb, owner of Green Couch Interior Design and Staging, which decks out for-sale homes to show them to their best advantage. “But now we’re seeing places sold in three weeks. It’s a big change from a year ago.”

Absentee buyers

Investors continue to be a potent market force. Absentee buyers bought 23.4 percent of Bay Area homes in June, up from 20 percent a year ago, paying a median of $270,000. Buyers paying all cash represented 27.5 percent of sales, up slightly from a year ago.

As always, market health varies tremendously by area.

“In part of the Silicon Valley, at least some of the increase in median reflects price pressure,” LePage said. “You’ve got a thin inventory of homes for sale and a fair number of people chasing them.

“Across the market, more and more neighborhoods are at least stable and some are inching up, while some remain weak. In some neighborhoods, if you get two more foreclosures on your street and they’re both dilapidated and the seller is anxious – those are scenarios where prices are still pretty soft.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Home-sales-prices-up-in-Bay-Area-in-June-3717559.php

It’s official.

Home prices have double dipped nationwide, now lower than their March 2009 trough, according to a new report from Clear Capital.

It was inevitable, and it was predicted (by me for sure) that a surge in sales of foreclosed properties and a big push by banks to facilitate short sales would force home prices down dramatically.

Sales of bank-owned (REO) properties hit 34.5 percent of the market, according to the survey, resulting in a national price drop of 4.9 percent quarterly and 5 percent year-over-year. National home prices have fallen 11.5 percent in the past nine months, a rate not seen since 2008. Add short sales, where the bank allows the borrower to sell for less than the value of the mortgage, and prices have nowhere to go but down.

“With more than one-third of national home sales being REO (bank owned), market prices are being weighed down as many markets have not regained enough footing to withstand the strain of the high proportion of REO sales,” says Clear Capital’s Alex Villacorta.

You don’t have to tell Los Angeles Realtor Bill Kerbox any of this. LA prices had been improving, and LA is still one of the nation’s best performing metro markets right now. Recently, however, prices took a turn, now down 2.4 percent quarter to quarter thanks to 34 percent REO saturation.

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