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	<title>homesmillbrae.com &#187; Toti</title>
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		<title>Is Multi-Family Home Construction Overheating?</title>
		<link>http://homesmillbrae.com/2153/is-multi-family-home-construction-overheating/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Apr 2013 10:14:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homesmillbrae.com/2153/is-multi-family-home-construction-overheating/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;With most data surpassing trailing 10-year averages, supply is clearly on the way. &#8230; The big unknown, in our view, is how desensitized (or not) investors are to the idea,&#8221; wrote David Toti and Gaurav Mehta, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald. &#8230; <a href="http://homesmillbrae.com/2153/is-multi-family-home-construction-overheating/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>  &#8220;With most data surpassing trailing 10-year averages, supply is clearly on the way. &#8230; The big unknown, in our view, is how desensitized (or not) investors are to the idea,&#8221; wrote David Toti and Gaurav Mehta, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald. &#8220;Already the No. 1 concern for apartment investors, recent permit/starts data have suggested sharp increases in the delivery of new apartment product in 2013 and beyond. Although we do not yet view this as a danger at the operating level for some time, the perception of a supply spike could cause the stocks to underperform as cash flow growth trajectories are lowered.&#8221;  </p>
<p>  Toti and Mehta noted that unlike previous recoveries in which supply initially increases in low-barrier markets, developers today are targeting the highest-tier, coastal, so-called A markets. That is because lenders are more willing to fund projects in these less risky areas, such as downtown Bethesda, Md., where cranes rise above the busy streets. Once considered a suburb of Washington, D.C., Bethesda is now a prime urban market, and developers and REITs such as  ederal Realty Investment Trust are reaping big rewards, despite what some call an overheating market. </p>
<p>  &#8220;We&#8217;re not concerned about any of that,&#8221; said John Tschiderer, vice president of development for Federal Realty. &#8220;I think a lot of it is location-driven and place, quality of place-driven, and in our investments our locations are strong, based on transit and the quality of what we build.&#8221; </p>
<p>  Apartment vacancies fell to just 4.2 percent nationally in the first quarter, down from 5 percent a year earlier, according to Reis Inc. That pushed rents higher by more than 3 percent year-over-year. </p>
<p>  &#8220;Analysts have wondered how rents could keep climbing when jobs are being created at a sluggish rate and wage growth has been relatively stagnant,&#8221; Reis economist Victor Calanog wrote in a recent report. &#8220;One answer is that the moribund housing market left households with little choice but to absorb rent hikes, but with the housing market now recovering, does that mean the tide is turning against landlords?&#8221; </p>
<p>  <em>(Read More: </em>Boomers a Boon to Urban Home Builders<em>)</em> </p>
<p>Article source: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100646124">http://www.cnbc.com/id/100646124</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Sandy Will Boost Self-Storage Space</title>
		<link>http://homesmillbrae.com/1820/sandy-will-boost-self-storage-space/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Oct 2012 07:51:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homesmillbrae.com/1820/sandy-will-boost-self-storage-space/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It happened after hurricane Katrina, and the expectation is that Sandy will prove no different. “Demand for self-storage rises considerably as homeowners, contractors, and local suppliers set about preparing for reconstruction,” note analysts David Toti and Gaurav Mehta of Cantor &#8230; <a href="http://homesmillbrae.com/1820/sandy-will-boost-self-storage-space/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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<p><img src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_hurricane-sandy-battery-park-nyc-200.jpg" border="0" align="Left" height="150" width="200" vspace="0" hspace="0" alt="3af0f hurricane sandy battery park nyc 200 Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space"  title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /><br />
<hr noshade="noshade" size="1" />It happened after hurricane Katrina, and the expectation is that Sandy will prove no different.
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />“Demand for self-storage rises considerably as homeowners, contractors, and local suppliers set about preparing for reconstruction,” note analysts David Toti and Gaurav Mehta of Cantor Fitzgerald. </p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />That means self-storage REITs (real estate investment trusts) that have above-average exposure on the eastern seaboard could see a surge in demand ahead. Cantor Fitzgerald expects <b><strong>Extra Space Storage</strong></b> <span><span><span class="cboq_div"><span class="cbo_qwrpr"><br /><span><img src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_blank.gif" border="0" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt="3af0f blank Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></span></span></span></span><span><a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/exr" class="black_no_change"><span>[</span><span>EXR</span> <br />
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	<span><img border="0" src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_realtime_icon.gif" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt="3af0f realtime icon Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></span>]</a></span></span>(NYSE: EXR, SELL), <b><strong>Sovran Self Storage<span><span><span class="cboq_div"><span class="cbo_qwrpr"><br /><span><img src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_blank.gif" border="0" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt="3af0f blank Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></span></span></span></span><span><a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/sss" class="black_no_change"><span>[</span><span>SSS</span> <br />
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	<span><img border="0" src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_realtime_icon.gif" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt="3af0f realtime icon Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></span>]</a></span></span></strong></b> (NYSE: SSS, HOLD), and <b><strong>CubeSmart</strong></b> <span><span><span class="cboq_div"><span class="cbo_qwrpr"><br /><span><img src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_blank.gif" border="0" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt="3af0f blank Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></span></span></span></span><span><a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/cube" class="black_no_change"><span>[</span><span>CUBE</span> <br />
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	<span><img border="0" src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/3af0f_realtime_icon.gif" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt="3af0f realtime icon Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></span>]</a></span></span>(NYSE: CUBE; BUY) will see the bulk of the demand, and that will drive revenue growth in the first half of 2013. </p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />Extra Space Storage which has relatively high exposure in New York and New Jersey, would see the biggest effect, perhaps as much as 33 percent of its portfolio. Sovran comes in second at 24 percent, according to Toti and Mehta. </p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />The play will likely be short-lived, as happened after hurricane Katrina, and there could be a hangover afterward. </p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />“The storage needs generated by hurricane clean-up can last from 6-18 months,” the Cantor Fitzgerald analysts warn, “then recede, which can set the stage for declining occupancies and more competitive pricing.” </p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />The self-storage REIT sector is up 13 percent year-to-date, underperforming compared to the <b><strong>RMZ</strong></b> (overall REIT index), but poised to improve over the next several years. The economic and housing recoveries are a positive for storage demand, as more Americans move and companies begin to hire again. The stock of Extra Space is up 40 percent year-to-date, and Sovran is up 36 percent. </p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span /></p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span /><em>Questions?  Comments?  </em><em /></p>
<p><em>Follow me on </em><a href="http://twitter.com/diana_Olick"><em>Twitter @Diana_Olick</em></a> <em>or on Facebook at </em><a href="https://editor.msnbc.msn.com/Editor/www.facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC"><u><em>facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC</em> </u></a></p>
<p><img width="100%" height="0" title="Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" alt=" Sandy Will Boost Self Storage Space" /></p>
<p>Article source: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/49611599?__source=RSS*blog*&amp;par=RSS">http://www.cnbc.com/id/49611599?__source=RSS*blog*&amp;par=RSS</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?</title>
		<link>http://homesmillbrae.com/1675/as-housing-recovers-will-apartment-boom-end/</link>
		<comments>http://homesmillbrae.com/1675/as-housing-recovers-will-apartment-boom-end/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Aug 2012 08:49:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://homesmillbrae.com/1675/as-housing-recovers-will-apartment-boom-end/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest reports on new and existing home sales seem to indicate that the housing market is beginning to find its footing again. While most believe the recovery will be slow, U-shaped, and bumpy, the free fall appears to be &#8230; <a href="http://homesmillbrae.com/1675/as-housing-recovers-will-apartment-boom-end/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />The latest reports on new and <b><strong><strong>existing home sales</strong> </strong></b>seem to indicate that the housing market is beginning to find its footing again. While most believe the recovery will be slow, U-shaped, and bumpy, the free fall appears to be over for both sales and prices.  </p>
<p><a name="StoryImage" />
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<p><img src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/d0a0c_apartment_building.jpg" border="0" align="Left" height="150" width="200" vspace="0" hspace="0" alt="d0a0c apartment building As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?"  title="As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" />This is not to say that factors like rising mortgage interest rates and economic instability overseas couldn’t set the recovery back a bit, but, again the general consensus is that the worst is arguably over. (<em>Read More</em>: <b><strong><a href="/id/48763349/" target="_blank"><strong>New Home Sales Rose 3.6% in July, but Prices Fell</strong></a></strong></b>.)
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />If that is in fact the case, then we have to ask what effect that recovery will have on the recently booming apartment sector, which benefited from the housing crash.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />Rents are sky high in most of the largest U.S. markets, and vacancies are down and still falling. Multifamily housing starts were up 30 percent in July from a year ago, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, and multifamily permits were up over 47 percent.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span /></p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />Supply increases are a potential risk to the multifamily sector, and high prices have caused investors to sour on the sector of late. But some say multifamily isn’t exactly heading into the woods. The fundamentals are still strong. (<em>Read More</em>: <b><strong><strong>A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Single and Multi Family</strong></strong></b>.)</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />“Realistically trees don’t grow to the sky,” said David Toti, a multifamily analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “The apartments have had spectacular growth since the depths of the recession, and at a certain point that growth has to moderate. You can only raise rents so much before you force people out.”</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />Toti noted that multi-family REITs are still doing better than other sectors, despite the fact that dedicated investors have started to rotate out to suburban office and select areas of retail and self-storage. Toti also believes that an improving single family housing market can co-exist for a while with a strong apartment market, and others agree.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />“Modestly favorable home-buying indicators are not coming at the expense of apartment rent trends,” wrote Sam Chandan of Chandan Economics. “Multifamily fundamentals continue to improve in advance of pending inventory additions from the construction pipeline.”</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />The fact is that despite a recovery in single family housing, we are not going to see a housing boom any time soon, and you can thank the still tight credit market for that. (<em>Read More</em>: <b><strong><strong>US Home Builders Begin to See Credit Thaw</strong></strong></b>.)</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span /></p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />There has also been a fundamental, cultural shift toward apartment living over the past decade that will drive ever more apartment demand.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />While single family homes account for 80 percent of total residential building stock, according to the U.S. Census, that number may be shrinking.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />Single-family homes have grown in number and size over the past 60 years, according to a new report from Pike Research (part of Navigant Energy Practice), &#8220;but by 2021 the total area of single-family homes in the United states will have shrunk by nearly 4 billion square feet, contracting at a negative compound annual growth rate of 0.2 percent.&#8221;</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />“For the first time since World War II, the United States is experiencing increased levels of urbanization,” said Pike senior research analyst Eric Bloom. “As more people move into cities, they tend to occupy apartments, condominiums, and other attached multi-unit housing types. By 2021, over one-fourth of the residential stock of the United States will be in multi-unit residential buildings.”</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />Apartment rents, while still rising, are beginning to level off, as the so-called “affordability inversion” comes into play; that means that should home prices continue to fall in most markets, renting becomes far more expensive than owning. (Read More:<b><strong> Is the Apartment Rental Market Overheating?</strong></b>)</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />In major metropolitan areas, however, high prices are still supported by high demand, and that is why many of the major multifamily REITs like <b><strong>AvalonBay <span><span><span class="cboq_div"><span class="cbo_qwrpr"><br /><span><img src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/d0a0c_blank.gif" border="0" title="As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" alt="d0a0c blank As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" /></span></span></span></span><span><a href="http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/avb" class="black_no_change"><span>[</span><span>AVB</span> <br />
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	<span><img border="0" src="http://homesmillbrae.com/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/d0a0c_realtime_icon.gif" title="As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" alt="d0a0c realtime icon As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" /></span>]</a></span></span> are becoming increasingly urban, building towers downtown and selling older, more suburban portfolio assets.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span />“Apartments and single family housing can live happily ever after for a little while,” said Toti, who noted that the physical American house is shrinking due to environmental concerns, material costs and a general desire by recession-wary home buyers to carry less debt.</p>
<p class="textBodyBlack"><span /><em>—By CNBC&#8217;s Diana Olick</em></p>
<p><strong><strong><em>Questions?  Comments?  </em><em /><em>And follow me on </em><a href="http://twitter.com/diana_Olick"><em>Twitter @Diana_Olick</em></a></strong></strong><img width="100%" height="0" title="As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" alt=" As Housing Recovers, Will Apartment Boom End?" /></p>
<p>Article source: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/48802819?__source=RSS*blog*&amp;par=RSS">http://www.cnbc.com/id/48802819?__source=RSS*blog*&amp;par=RSS</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
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