Inventories are tightest on the low end of the market, where investors came in and bought most of the distressed properties and are now holding them as single-family rentals. There is about a four-month supply of homes priced under $100,000, while there is around a twelve-month supply of homes priced over $500,000. That’s why sales of those low-end homes are down 16 percent from a year ago, and sales of higher-end homes are up 25 percent, according to the Realtors.

(Read More: Housing’s Big Challenge: Student Debt)

“The housing shortage is going to continue,” claimed Yun, who says the builders need to ramp up housing starts by 50 percent. He admits that is unlikely to happen due to land, labor and supply constraints.

Weak supplies are pushing home prices up far faster than wage growth, which is keeping first-time buyers especially on the sidelines. These buyers made up just 30 percent of the market in March, compared to the historical norm of 40-45 percent. They just can’t compete with all cash investors.

(Read More: Why Housing Affordability Is at Risk)

But if prices get too high, investors could leave the market. Their share was already down in March to 19 percent compared to 22 percent just one month ago. The danger is that they will start to unload the homes they own, which would bring much-needed supply back but which could also turn home prices in the other direction.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100660999

(Read More: Housing’s Big Challenge: Student Debt)

Back in the mid-eighties and nineties, Americans spent nearly 20 percent of their median monthly incomes on their home loans—compared to just 12.5 percent today, according to Zillow.

The trouble is that wages have either stagnated or dropped at the same time that home values are rising. Pre-bubble, U.S. homebuyers spent 2.6 times their median annual incomes on the purchase price of a typical home, but now they are spending three times their incomes—meaning homes are 14.5 percent more expensive relative to income, according to Zillow. That is all made possible by government-subsidized, record low rates.

(Read More: Betting on the Home Builders as Housing Battles Back)

“The days of historically high levels of housing affordability are numbered,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. “Current affordability is almost entirely dependent on low interest rates, and there’s no doubt that rates will begin to rise in the next few years.”

Rates will rise because the Federal Reserve will inevitably have to get out of the business of buying agency mortgage-backed securities, which currently drives down rates. This won’t happen immediately, but it will in the next two to three years.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100631625

Their story is getting ever more common, as total student loan balances nearly tripled between 2004 and 2012, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now $1 trillion in collective student loan debt is directly affecting the housing recovery.

“Short term, you see a decrease in the number of first-time home buyers,” said Brian Coester of Coester Valuation Management. “You’re going to see somebody who would have been able to afford a more expensive house maybe go for the lower version or the downgraded version.”

First-time home buyers usually make up over 40 percent of the home buying population, but their share has hovered at or below 30 percent during this recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors. The student debt burden has kept many potential buyers out of the market, either forced to rent or to move back in with their parents, like Sophia Chaale.

“Without the student loan debt, a year and a half, two years earlier would have been the time I could have afforded to buy a house, and probably something a little bit bigger,” Chaale said.

(Read More: Surging Student-Loan Debt Is Crushing the System

Chaale is facing $60,000 in student loans from graduate and undergraduate schools. She is paying $320 a month on a 30-year loan. Only after living at home for two years was she able to apply for a mortgage and put a down payment on a home. She is scheduled to close at the end of April.

“I consider myself lucky that I had a place where I could save, but what about other people who aren’t originally from this area, who have to pay an extra $1500 a month in rent, and that rent money is not going to savings. How are they going to be able to save up or even to make that transition from renting to owning, in addition to all the student loan debt?” Chaale wondered.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100624148