This home at 3800 Washington St. in the Presidio Heights neighborhood of San Francisco is on the market for $21 million. It has eight bedrooms, seven bathrooms and 17,895 square feet. Prices for homes above $1 million grew by 11 percent during the past year.

Blanca Torres
Reporter- San Francisco Business Times

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The Bay Area’s housing market continues heating up, but for how long?

Home values in the Bay Area rose by 27.8 percent during the past year to an average of $628,200 in July, according to Zillow, a real estate information site. Zillow calculates home value appreciation for all homes, not just homes that have sold or are on the market.

Click on the image for a slideshow of Bay Area homes that are on the market or have risen significantly in value.

San Francisco ranked third nationwide for home value appreciation after Sacramento with 33.1 percent growth to $274,600 and Las Vegas with 30.8 percent growth to $151,600.

Nationwide, home values crept up by 6 percent during the past year to an average $161,600 — about 25 percent of San Francisco’s average (kind of makes you want to move doesn’t it?).

“The U.S. housing market recovery has proven it is on very sound footing,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “We have entered a new phase in the recovery when we can begin to turn away from ugly recent history and turn toward what the housing market of the future will look like and how it will act.”

The housing market has improved significantly, but I’m not sure the Bay Area’s performance will continue to rise at the rapid pace we’ve seen in the past couple of years.

Also, the market here is increasingly shifting toward the high-end and away from first-time and entry-level buyers.

First Republic Bank reported today that luxury home prices in the Bay Area jumped 10.9 percent during the second quarter of this year compared with 2012 to an average of $2.9 million — the highest since the fourth quarter of 2008 and approaching the all-time highs of 2007.

Blanca Torres covers East Bay real estate for the San Francisco Business Times.

Article source: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2013/08/bay-area-home-values-up-28-percent.html

Throughout the nine-county region, about 18 percent of all homes with a mortgage – or 205,819 homes – were underwater as of June 30, according to real estate service Zillow.com. That’s a big comeback from just 15 months earlier, when negative equity peaked both locally and nationally.

In late March 2012, almost a third of Bay Area homeowners with mortgages – 31.2 percent, or 355,879 homes – had loans larger than their house’s value.

About one-third of homes are owned outright with no mortgage; they are excluded from the percentage rates.

“The Bay Area is getting out of negative equity at a much faster pace than anywhere else in the country,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “It was a huge percentage point decrease there. Nationally the decrease is much smaller.”

Nationwide, the negative equity rate is 23.8 percent of mortgaged homes, Zillow said.

Home prices surge

Most of the gains are because of a surge in home prices as local real estate markets have grown heated. A smaller share stems from underwater homes changing hands, either as foreclosures or short sales, thus wiping out their negative equity.

The report comes as Richmond – among the areas most underwater – considers taking the radical step of invoking eminent domain to forcibly seize underwater mortgages and slash their principal to restore some equity to the homeowners. Richmond says the goal is to prevent foreclosures and stabilize neighborhoods.

Being underwater has huge implications for a homeowner, particularly when combined with a financial shock – death, divorce, job loss or mortgage payments resetting higher, for instance.

People who have equity in their homes, the largest asset for most Americans, generally have more consumer confidence.

“Homeowners feeling like they are richer in home values does translates to them feeling a bit ‘spendier’ on the consumer side of their expenditures, which will strengthen broader economic recovery,” Humphries said.

Not surprisingly, negative equity is most prevalent in areas that were ravished by foreclosures. The Solano County communities of Vallejo, Fairfield and Suisan City have underwater rates above 47 percent of mortgaged homes.

The Contra Costa towns of Pittsburg, Richmond, Antioch, Hercules and Oakley have rates well above 40 percent. Some Oakland ZIP codes also have high rates.

Even more relevant, in those areas it’s not just that many homes are underwater, it’s that they are deeply underwater, with significant percentages owing more than twice their home’s value. That means homeowners in those areas are unlikely to reach positive equity for many years.

By contrast, in the affluent areas of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, not only are far fewer homeowners underwater, most are underwater by smaller percentages. That means they have hope that the rising market will lift them into positive equity within a short time frame.

Underwater homes are among the reasons the real estate market has faced a limited supply of inventory.

“You’re still not seeing folks who bought in 2006 selling now because they’re not above water yet,” said Kevin Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty in Danville.

Fewer short sales

As equity continues to rise, more homes should hit the market.

“Our expectation is that a lot of people recently freed from negative equity will start to sell their homes, which will ease inventory constraints,” Humphries said.

The decrease in underwater homes is also borne out in far fewer short sales – homes sold for less than is owed on the mortgage.

“Short sales have dwindled down to hardly anything now,” Kieffer said. “There are only four active (short sale listings) in central (Alameda) county.

“The banks are not pushing hard for short sales the way they once were. I think they’re waiting to ride out this market for the upside. They don’t want to have to go through the expense of a short sale.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-leads-in-underwater-mortgage-rebounds-4772598.php

Throughout the nine-county region, about 18 percent of all homes with a mortgage – or 205,819 homes – were underwater as of June 30, according to real estate service Zillow.com. That’s a big comeback from just 15 months earlier, when negative equity peaked both locally and nationally.

In late March 2012, almost a third of Bay Area homeowners with mortgages – 31.2 percent, or 355,879 homes – had loans larger than their house’s value.

About one-third of homes are owned outright with no mortgage; they are excluded from the percentage rates.

“The Bay Area is getting out of negative equity at a much faster pace than anywhere else in the country,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “It was a huge percentage point decrease there. Nationally the decrease is much smaller.”

Nationwide, the negative equity rate is 23.8 percent of mortgaged homes, Zillow said.

Home prices surge

Most of the gains are because of a surge in home prices as local real estate markets have grown heated. A smaller share stems from underwater homes changing hands, either as foreclosures or short sales, thus wiping out their negative equity.

The report comes as Richmond – among the areas most underwater – considers taking the radical step of invoking eminent domain to forcibly seize underwater mortgages and slash their principal to restore some equity to the homeowners. Richmond says the goal is to prevent foreclosures and stabilize neighborhoods.

Being underwater has huge implications for a homeowner, particularly when combined with a financial shock – death, divorce, job loss or mortgage payments resetting higher, for instance.

People who have equity in their homes, the largest asset for most Americans, generally have more consumer confidence.

“Homeowners feeling like they are richer in home values does translates to them feeling a bit ‘spendier’ on the consumer side of their expenditures, which will strengthen broader economic recovery,” Humphries said.

Not surprisingly, negative equity is most prevalent in areas that were ravished by foreclosures. The Solano County communities of Vallejo, Fairfield and Suisan City have underwater rates above 47 percent of mortgaged homes.

The Contra Costa towns of Pittsburg, Richmond, Antioch, Hercules and Oakley have rates well above 40 percent. Some Oakland ZIP codes also have high rates.

Even more relevant, in those areas it’s not just that many homes are underwater, it’s that they are deeply underwater, with significant percentages owing more than twice their home’s value. That means homeowners in those areas are unlikely to reach positive equity for many years.

By contrast, in the affluent areas of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, not only are far fewer homeowners underwater, most are underwater by smaller percentages. That means they have hope that the rising market will lift them into positive equity within a short time frame.

Underwater homes are among the reasons the real estate market has faced a limited supply of inventory.

“You’re still not seeing folks who bought in 2006 selling now because they’re not above water yet,” said Kevin Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty in Danville.

Fewer short sales

As equity continues to rise, more homes should hit the market.

“Our expectation is that a lot of people recently freed from negative equity will start to sell their homes, which will ease inventory constraints,” Humphries said.

The decrease in underwater homes is also borne out in far fewer short sales – homes sold for less than is owed on the mortgage.

“Short sales have dwindled down to hardly anything now,” Kieffer said. “There are only four active (short sale listings) in central (Alameda) county.

“The banks are not pushing hard for short sales the way they once were. I think they’re waiting to ride out this market for the upside. They don’t want to have to go through the expense of a short sale.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-leads-in-underwater-mortgage-rebounds-4772598.php

The negative home equity rate fell in the second quarter of this year, the fifth straight quarterly drop, but it is still alarmingly high and continues to hamper the housing recovery.

Currently, 23.8 percent of homeowners with a mortgage, or approximately 12.2 million, owe more than their homes are worth, down from 15.3 million one year ago, according to the report. Some, however, are still so far underwater that even with fast-rising prices, it will take years for them to see any home equity.

(Read more: Home sales suffer on higher rates: Realtors)

“Widespread rising home values during the past year have helped chip away at negative equity nationwide, helping many homeowners who were only modestly underwater to come up for air. For those homeowners who are deeply underwater, though, there is still a long row to hoe,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries in a release.

(Read more: He’s not buying a house—why is Obama on Zillow?)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100995592

Concerns about rising mortgage rates, which spiked in to the mid-4 percent range in just the past week, have dampened expectations for home price gains this summer. Analysts also worry that prices are rising too fast, far faster than income growth, and will soon price too many potential buyers out of the housing market.

“Today’s Case-Shiller numbers may reflect where the housing market has been in some of the frothier metros, but they are not indicative of where it’s headed,” said Zillow’s chief economist, Stan Humphries. “The housing market worm has turned over the past few weeks—inventory levels are beginning to show signs of easing, and mortgage interest rates are creeping up. Going forward, both of these factors will help mitigate extreme price spikes caused by very strong housing demand and very low housing supply.”

This latest report only tracks prices on a three-month moving average through the end of April, well before mortgage rates began their climb. Still, Blitzer contends that rising rates will not slow price gains.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100839986

Fewer Bay Area homeowners listed homes for sale in June than last the same month last year. 

Blanca Torres
Reporter- San Francisco Business Times

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Housing inventory was down by more than 30 percent during the past year in the Bay Area, according to real estate website Zillow.

When comparing June of 2013 to June of 2012 in its database of listings, Zillow found there were fewer homes on the market in the San Francisco metro area, but nationwide, the number rose by 5.3 percent.

Zillow listed 4,528 total homes for sale in June of this year, down from 6,496 last year, in the San Francisco metropolitan area including San Francisco, Alameda, Marin, Contra Costa, and San Mateo counties.

In our market, having fewer homes for sale has pumped up prices and sparked bidding wars.

“Inventory will likely remain below year-ago levels for a while yet, as builders ramp up capacity and sellers wait to squeeze every drop of equity from their home before listing,” said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist.

Experts expect that with prices climbing up, more homeowners will list their properties for sale and prices will stabilize.

“Going forward, as this new supply makes its way to market, we expect the pace of home value appreciation to slow down from unsustainably high annual levels of 5 percent or above to more moderate levels closer to historic norms of 3 percent or 4 percent,” Humphries said.

Blanca Torres covers East Bay real estate for the San Francisco Business Times.

Article source: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2013/06/bay-area-housing-inventory-drops-by-30.html

(Read More: Short Supply Has Home Sales ‘Squeaking’ Out Gains)

While Humphries does not make the connection to rising bank repossessions in the report, his numbers do. They show inventory easing much more on the low end of the market, where distressed homes tend to be.

“The greatest year-over-year decreases in inventory were among more expensive homes, with the availability of top-tier and middle-tier properties each falling 15.7 percent year over year. The number of bottom-tier properties for sale on Zillow nationwide fell only 2.5 percent in early June compared to June 2012.”

As more bank-owned homes hit the market, inventories are likely to turn positive again in the near future.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100812845

(Read More: Housing’s Big Challenge: Student Debt)

Back in the mid-eighties and nineties, Americans spent nearly 20 percent of their median monthly incomes on their home loans—compared to just 12.5 percent today, according to Zillow.

The trouble is that wages have either stagnated or dropped at the same time that home values are rising. Pre-bubble, U.S. homebuyers spent 2.6 times their median annual incomes on the purchase price of a typical home, but now they are spending three times their incomes—meaning homes are 14.5 percent more expensive relative to income, according to Zillow. That is all made possible by government-subsidized, record low rates.

(Read More: Betting on the Home Builders as Housing Battles Back)

“The days of historically high levels of housing affordability are numbered,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. “Current affordability is almost entirely dependent on low interest rates, and there’s no doubt that rates will begin to rise in the next few years.”

Rates will rise because the Federal Reserve will inevitably have to get out of the business of buying agency mortgage-backed securities, which currently drives down rates. This won’t happen immediately, but it will in the next two to three years.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100631625

Mortgage rates may also be headed higher. Several members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) thought it would “probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases [of assets including mortgage-backed securities] well before the end of 2013,” according to minutes of the committee’s latest meeting. Doing so would push mortgage rates higher. (Read More: Mortgage Recovery Still Rocky.)

Fitch analysts admit price recovery will vary widely depending on the local market conditions, but their case seems more bearish than most. Or is it?

“I personally think that a lot of the price appreciation we’re seeing in many markets right now is because the market of tradable homes is thinner than usual because of high negative equity,” said Zillow’s chief economist Stan Humphries. “This condition will change as home price gains pull homeowners out of negative equity and the market becomes more fluid.”

Zillow’s home value index was up 5.2 percent annually in November, but Humphries expects appreciation over the next twelve months of just 2.5 percent. He cites decreasing unemployment, rent increases, rising household formation and “essentially a five-year hiatus” in home building. (Read More: Most Affordable US Cities.)

Supply and demand, as they always have historically, will determine home prices going forward; unfortunately, both of those are currently too complicated and too economically sensitive to predict.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100355400

(Read More: Housing’s Recovery Means Fewer Can Afford Home)

The best buyers’ markets are equally surprising, with Chicago, Cleveland and Philadelphia topping the list.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100306069