The number of homes for sale in April hit a 6.6-month supply, down from 9.1 months a year ago, the National Association of Realtors says. A six-month supply is considered a healthy market.

• MORE: Number of homes for sale in 50 top markets and change from a year ago

Some markets have fallen below that. Last month, nine of 18 leading markets tracked by real estate brokerage Redfin had less than a three-month supply. That means it would have taken three months to sell all of the listed homes at April’s sales pace.

Those markets included the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Denver and Washington, D.C. A year ago, only Phoenix had such a low inventory, Redfin’s data show.

“Multiple offers are definitely the norm,” says Rick Turley, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage for the San Francisco Bay Area. At one point this month, 80% of the properties that his agents were working to buy or sell had multiple offers, Turley says.

Unlike the days during the housing bubble, house shoppers are more likely to go to the sidelines after making three or four offers, he says.

“We’re seeing a significant number of people step back from multiple bids,” says Glenn Kelman, Redfin CEO. “They say, ‘I’m not going to make the mistake people made in 2006.’ “

Compared with a year ago, supplies are tighter in every price category in 47 of 50 top U.S. markets, according to real estate website Zillow. Leaner supplies of lower-price homes are especially evident in some markets.

In Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas, the number of lower-price homes for sale has dropped 64%, 53% and 50%, respectively, in the past year, Zillow’s analysis found. That’s a bigger drop than what’s occurred for higher-price homes in those markets, Zillow’s data show.

Tight inventories will push up prices, encouraging more people to list homes, Zillow economist Stan Humphries says.

Plenty are waiting. “Every Realtor knows divorced couples living in the same house because they’re waiting for higher prices,” says Remax Realtor Kathie Shandro in Denver.

Many people lack enough home equity to buy again, CoreLogic economist Mark Fleming says. CoreLogic says 45% of mortgage holders have less than 20% home equity.

Fewer foreclosed homes are also coming to market, Fleming says. Plus, lower-priced homes are attractive to investors, who’re turning them into rentals, Fleming says.

Article source: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-05-24/Housing-becomes-sellers-market/55194106/1

Sales of newly built homes fell around 2 percent in May from the previous month, but that was a little better than expectations, given the lousy home builder sentiment number we got this month and the huge supply of competing existing and distressed properties.

But let’s put this monthly move in perspective, shall we?

The 319,000 sales pace is 14 percent higher than the record low set in February, but new home sales are still 77 percent below their peak in 2005, and 900,000 is considered healthy.

But how’s this for an odd statement:

“The one positive in this report was the further fall in the number of new homes for sales, from 172,000 in April to yet another record low of 166,000,” writes Paul Dales at Capital Economics. “With fewer new homes for sale than ever before, at some point homebuilding activity will have to increase, but we can’t see it happening for several years yet.”

That’s the positive??

You could look at the home prices, down 3.4 percent, which is less than the 5 percent drop in existing home prices in May. But then you have to remember all the concessions builders are throwing in, and you also have to look at the fact that the median price of an existing home is 30 percent less than that of a newly built home. How’s that for competition?

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The best number out of today’s report on sales of newly built homes is not the 7.3 percent bump up in signed contracts, it’s the drop in inventories to a 6.5 month supply.

That number is based on a quicker sales pace and a drop of 5000 in the absolute number of newly built homes on the market.

That volume is the lowest since at least 1963, according to Miller Tabak’s Peter Boockvar, who worries that the supply of existing homes is still simply too much for anyone to be touting the builders.

“The best response on the part of builders is to shoot themselves in the foot for as long as they can financially stand, so the market can more quickly absorb the excess inventory of existing homes which make up most of the overall market,” writes Boockvar.

Aristar’s JT Smith chimes in on the actual April sales number: “Unadjusted sales of 32k makes April 2011 tied for the worst April sales number in recorded history.”

My concern is not over the inventory of newly built homes. I think it’s a big positive. My problem is the glut of bargain-priced REO (bank owned) homes against which the builders compete.

Check out a chart we re-made from data by the Calculated Risk Blog.

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Several of the nation’s largest public home builders reported earnings this week, and I was struck by the way their CEOs spoke of the current state of housing, especially in what I’m sure were some very carefully crafted written earnings statements.

From D.R. Horton’s [ DHI 12.44  +0.34 (+2.81%) ] Donald Horton:

“Market conditions in the homebuilding industry are still challenging, with high foreclosures, significant existing home inventory, high unemployment, tight mortgage lending standards and weak consumer confidence. However, housing affordability remains near record highs, interest rates are favorable and new home inventory is still very low,” Horton said. “We continue to focus on providing affordable homes for the first-time buyer while having product available for move-up buyers, further adjusting our cost structure relative to our current sales pace.”

Translation: We’re still in the dumps, but we’re lowering prices, so come on and buy.

Pulte’s [ PHM 8.13  -0.11 (-1.34%) ] Richard Dugas: “Over the near term, we expect the industry will continue to face low levels of demand and that overall operating conditions will remain highly competitive.” Dugas then said he expects a return to profitability in the “back half of the year.”

Translation: Still bad, but it has to get better, right?

Ryland’s CEO didn’t weigh in on the earnings release.

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The sales pace of newly built homes is now at the lowest on record.

Sales dropped nearly 17 percent in February after a big drop in January. Put that on top of the nearly 10 percent February drop in existing home sales reported earlier this week and the incredibly low level of mortgage purchase applications, and you get a clear case for a double dip in housing.

Remember, this number from the Census is based on contracts signed in February, not closings, like the existing home sales number from the Realtors. That means it is a real indicator of how the Spring market is starting.

“Further, the plunge in new home prices [down 8.9% year over year] does not bode well for existing sales prices in February, which will close in March and April and be reported by NAR in April and May,” notes analyst Mark Hanson.

I really don’t have to tell you that, since the vast majority of you voting on the blog cast the double-dip vote yourselves. The question now is: How long will it last? As I noted yesterday, more than a hundred economist and housing types surveyed by MacroMarkets said there would not be real recovery in housing until 2013.

I want to talk pros and cons.

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