How do I loathe home price day?

Let me count the ways.

The rash generalizations, the seasonal vs. non-seasonal adjustment confusion, the month-to-month vs. year-over-year, the contention among all the varied home price reports from the various and varied entities that track them.

I could go on, but if you are a regular Realty Check reader, you’ve heard all this before.

This month is particularly frustrating, because the big headline from SP/Case Shiller was that home prices rose for the first time in eight months. Okay, yes, from March to April, with no seasonal adjustments, home prices rose barely, less than one percent, in the nation’s top 20 housing markets. When you seasonally adjust those numbers, the prices fall. Why?

Because in different seasons, different types of buyers buy different types of homes.

The Spring market is historically replete with families; these are move-up buyers, purchasing larger, more expensive homes. That skews the overall prices higher. They buy in the Spring because they want to move over the summer, when school is out. You tend to see more single and first-time buyers in the fall.

This is why I judge prices year over year, because you are comparing apples to apples. Prices are down in 19 out of the top 20 markets year-over-year, with six markets hitting new lows on the SP/Case Shiller Home Price Index.

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As our week-long Spring Realty Check draws to a close here in Chicago, I’m struggling to come up with a fundamental conclusion.

The trouble of course is that the Spring season isn’t over, and the housing and mortgage markets are facing so many unknowns that any conclusion would be ridiculous.

The one thing I can surmise, after talking to real estate industry types from Boston to Seattle and in between, is that housing is not roaring back right now, and may in fact be double-dipping,

We’ve already seen home prices take a turn for the worse again, but sales seemed to be picking up in January. Unfortunately that may have been short-lived. While all real estate is local, the sales numbers are not encouraging. RE/MAX just reported February home sales down 3 percent annually.

“This is the first time in four months that the year-to-year sales difference was not better than the previous month,” according to the report. Sales were up month to month, but not by much.

New construction isn’t faring much better. The home builders reported a slight tick up in sentiment this week, but that was all based on future expectations, not current sales and traffic.

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With all the turmoil and unknown in the markets, investors today may be searching for a safe-haven. U.S. real estate wouldn’t exactly sit at the top of the list for most, given the still uncertain state of the housing and credit markets, but there is one sector that seems to have fundamentals and sentiment on its side: Apartments.

We’re in Boston, MA today for day two of the Spring Realty Check: Opportunity Knocks. Boston is home to Avalon Bay, one of the largest apartment REITs in the nation. It’s revenues were up 8 percent year over and shares are up 34 percent from a year ago. It’s the upside to the downturn in housing. Many people who lost their homes to foreclosure have been forced to the rental market, others who are unable to get a mortgage are doing the same, and still others who would have headed toward home ownership have been scared away from the market by still falling prices. In turn, apartment vacancies are down, rents are up and REITs are reaping the rewards.

We interviewed a young couple in Boston, fiancées, and I think their insights are indicative of so many around the country.

“A lot of people are scared to buy just because if they have to move or things change, you lose money on the house and you might not be able to sell it. In my mind it’s just easier and more safe to rent.”

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Condo sales in Miami were up 134 percent in January year-over-year, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. That’s not a typo.

“The Miami market continues to outperform the rest of the nation mostly due to the strong impact of international buyers and record affordability,” said Jack H. Levine, Chairman of the of the MAR. International buyers, low prices, and the weak dollar are certainly pushing the sales, but with those sales is coming a new phenomenon not seen since the housing boom.

Yes, prices for condos are down 36 percent annually to a median price of $91,200, but those prices are beginning to stabilize, despite the fact that there are about 3600 vacant units on the market in downtown Miami alone. Huh? How do prices stabilize with a three to four year supply??

“I think the way you get prices going up is by artificial price setting,” claims Peter Zalewski, principal at Condo Vultures, a real estate sales and consulting firm.

“I’m not going to use the C word, collusion, but there’s a certain price mechanism that all of the owners are starting to abide by and adhere to.”

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