homesmillbrae.com » Q1

Renter Nation Rages On

Sat, 28 Jul 2012 11:25:13 +0000

The supply of empty homes for rent is falling, and the nation’s homeownership rate is hovering near a fifteen year low.

How can that be when the housing market is finally turning around and more homes are selling?

The answer is simple: Investors.

The nation’s home ownership rate ticked up a statistically insignificant basis point, from 65.5 percent in the first quarter of this year to 65.6 percent in the second quarter, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Q1 was the lowest home ownership rate since 1997 and is down from the peak of 69.4 percent in 2004.

Given that home sales improved significantly during the first half of this year, you would think that home ownership rate should have surged higher, but the rate is calculated using only owner-occupied homes. If an investor buys one home or 100 homes, those homes are not even put into the calculation because they owner doesn’t live in the homes. Realtors estimate around 20 percent of homes sales are currently to investors, but given bulk deals offered by the government and banks on foreclosed properties, that percentage is likely higher.

“The very modest increase in the homeownership rate in Q2 does not persuade us to alter our view that the share of the population who own their home will fall further over the next couple of years,” writes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. “Meanwhile, supply conditions in the rental market are tightening, with a falling proportion of single and multi-family rental homes vacant.”

Rental vacancies in fact fell to their lowest rate since 2001. That is why so many investors are rushing in to buy distressed properties. The rental market his hot and getting hotter. Average asking rent rose 5 percent from a year ago, though they are down slightly from the previous quarter.

Since the peak of home ownership in 2004, six and a half million additional U.S. households are renting, which Diggle calculates is equivalent to 90 percent of the increase in total household numbers over that time. He estimates home ownership will fall to 64 percent over the next two years.

An investor-driven recovery in home sales is certainly positive and is helping to clear the huge backlog of distressed properties on the low end; investors are necessary now, but until real owner-occupants, including the all-important first-time home buyer, return, a robust recovery in all price tiers of the market will remain out of reach.

Questions? Comments? And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48354027?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Bay Area home sales off to best start since 2005

Sat, 05 May 2012 01:59:41 +0000

The housing market in the Bay Area is off to a strong start and is on pace to be one of the best years since the bust days. Bay area brokerage firm Pacific Union’s real estate report of real estate activity for the first quarter shows buying activity up all over the bay despite supply being at record lows.

Even with inventory (listings) down compared with the same period last year, buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in all our regions. If this trend continues, the total number of homes sold this year could reach 20,850 – and exceed the 10-year average in the Bay Area for the first time since 2005.

While the number of homes changing hands is jumping, price levels overall, on average, are down 1%. The first quarter report from Better Homes and Gardens Mason-McDuffie Real Estate shows San Francisco and Napa’s median price increasing by 4% and 7%, while Alameda’s median dropped by 10% compared to the first quarter of 2011. Slim pickings are sparking multiple offers with quality homes in favored locations as inventory is down by more than half compared to last year.

As of the final day of the first quarter, 7,703 existing detached homes were listed for sale across the entire Bay Area, down a staggering 54 percent from 16,669 homes on the market on the same date a year ago.

Even with the lack of homes on the market, it looks like buyers are out of the gates. In my local Marin neighborhood, newly listed homes that had a hard time selling a year or two ago, where they lingered for over 100+ days and were finally pulled, are getting snatched up within 2-3 weeks. With the traditional buying season just beginning and the Facebook IPO on its way, this sets the stage for an interesting summer.

Courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Mason-McDuffie Real Estate

Article source: http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/05/04/bay-area-home-sales-off-to-best-start-since-2005/

Spring Housing Season

Tue, 07 Jun 2011 02:33:16 +0000

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I don’t know what the official end of the Spring housing market is, but it seems as if the experts have called the close, and it ain’t great.

Last week, after the folks at the vaunted SP/Case Shiller Indices put a period on the home price double dip, which others had been reporting for months — and The New York Times did a piece on falling home prices — it seemed like suddenly the housing watchers got nervous again.

Over the weekend, JP Morgan Chase’s housing analysts revised their outlook lower for home price recovery, “largely based on existing home sales coming in lower than expected.” While they expect that regional divergences will increase, “Our new base case is down percent from here (Q1 2011) and bottoming in mid-2012. We expect home prices to modestly improve over the summer months.”

Soon after, Credit Suisse’s Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents announced: “Weak ending to the Spring season.” CS’s Daniel Oppenheim notes, “A lack of urgency continues as does a fear and hesitation of buying if prices still have further to fall.” This, we knew.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43298147?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Falling Home Prices Hit Big Banks, Fannie, Freddie

Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:56:41 +0000

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Home prices began double-dipping months ago, but now that SP/Case Shiller has chimed in, it really must be so.

This report is the most widely-followed home price index, equally quoted in bank boardrooms, Treasury Department back rooms, and Congressional Committees.

The report finds home prices in Q1 of this year are now 2.9 percent below the previous quarterly bottom in Q1 of 2009, effectively giving up all the gains of the past few years, which were of course fueled by the home buyer tax credit.

“Just about everybody agrees we’re going to miss the seasonally strong period in 2011, which we should be at the very beginning of right now with May, but nobody thinks that will make any difference,” says SP’s David Blitzer. “Everybody’s now keeping their fingers crossed for 2012 and wondering whether people just don’t want to own homes anymore.”

Keeping your fingers crossed for the housing market is just the tip of the iceberg. Prices have now fallen, on this index, more than they did during the Great Depression. “On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first fell,” notes Paul Dales at Capital Economics.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43224167?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS