homesmillbrae.com » Purchasing Power

Home builders boost prices amid rising rates

Thu, 25 Jul 2013 03:40:36 +0000

Mortgage rates jumped over a full percentage point from May through June of this year, robbing home buyers of much-needed purchasing power. While they have now settled back a bit, they are far from the record lows of the past two years.

“The recent increase in mortgage rates hasn’t slowed demand, as long as home affordability remains high,” noted Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. “We are, however, seeing an increased urgency from potential new home buyers as they move to secure today’s historically low rates.”

New home sales jumped more than 8 percent month-to-month in June, but May’s sales numbers were revised sharply lower, and prices, while up from a year ago, are down 11.5 percent from April. That has some housing skeptics less optimistic about the builders’ prospects.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

“Remember, last month on the ‘strong’ but FAKE new home sales print of 476k, home builders rallied, and every bull took a huge victory lap. Today we learned that was all garbage,” noted California-based analyst Mark Hanson. “Bottom line: May was a huge miss. Prices have tumbled as rates surged. And June is suspect because of the huge lower May revision.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100910336

Housing recovery rides rate roller coaster

Sun, 21 Jul 2013 09:31:09 +0000

“Last week mortgage rates retreated from a 23-month high as the Fed sought to reassure markets that the wind-down of the stimulus program would be gradual, and contingent upon strong improvement in economic fundamentals,” said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace.

“This coming week, market participants will be focused on Friday’s jobs report as an indicator of whether the economic recovery is strong enough to withstand an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of Fed stimulus.”

Mortgage rates are up about a full percentage point from where they were at the beginning of May. That translates into about a 15 percent jump in monthly payments for the average home buyer, or 15 percent less purchasing power, depending on how you look at it. That can certainly be make or break for some buyers, especially first-time home buyers who may have been stretching in the first place.

“Applications for new home purchases have continued to move sideways over the last month, but that may be people are rushing to buy or lock in mortgage rates before rates move even higher,” said Michelle Girard of RBS Securities. “It may be that there is going to a bit of a lag effect. I still think rates are historically low, and we are in an improving economy, although a gradual one, the recovery can continue, maybe the pace will moderate—but I do not think the back up in mortgage rates is going to derail the housing recovery.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100862969

Corelogic: There is no housing bubble

Sat, 20 Jul 2013 15:27:51 +0000

Rising mortgage rates will help to temper the possibility of a bubble as well, but they will not cut into demand dramatically, as some have predicted, according to Fleming.

“Buyers buy based upon payment, and those payments are still highly affordable relative to their incomes,” he said. “Even with 100 basis point swing, there’s still plenty of room in that [affordability] index.”

The concern, however, has been that as mortgage rates rise, home prices would necessarily fall, as buyers lose purchasing power. That may not be the case, according to a new analysis.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

“History shows that a rapid rise in interest rates tends to have little correlation with home prices. Rather, rising rates are more likely to contribute to a decrease in home purchase volume and an increase in the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages,” wrote Mark Palim in a Fannie Mae commentary.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100890224

Home price gains not enough for a ‘bubble’ say economists

Tue, 16 Jul 2013 21:18:35 +0000

Rising mortgage rates will help to temper the possibility of a bubble as well, but they will not cut into demand dramatically, as some have predicted, according to Fleming.

The concern, however, has been that as mortgage rates rise, home prices would necessarily fall, as buyers lose purchasing power. That may not be the case, according to a new analysis.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100890224

Apartments reap rewards of rising rates

Sun, 14 Jul 2013 15:03:30 +0000

“I am scared, in part due to the fact that my father and mother had a lot of problems with their mortgage and due to the job market,” said Charles Desanpedro Jr., a renter in Northern New Jersey.

(Read More: Map: Tracking the US Real Estate Recovery)

Fear and financing have kept the apartment rental market strong for the past several years, with rising rents and falling vacancies. Rents rose yet again in the second quarter of this year, according to a new report from Reis, up more than 2 percent from a year ago. But rents and vacancies have been stabilizing of late, as buyers return to the market.

Mark Sadaka and his wife are looking to buy a home in New Jersey.

“It’s hard to get a mortgage, but now things have apparently lightened up. I don’t know, we’re exploring that now,” said Mark.

Mortgage credit is easing up slightly, according to a new index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The increase was driven by a small uptick in the number of jumbo, investor and cash-out products as well as those with higher loan-to-value ratios. All those are riskier loans.

But while credit is easing slightly, mortgage rates are rising. The 30-year fixed hit 4.41 percent on the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, up 24 basis points from a week ago.That’s the highest in two years. Rates could move higher after Wednesday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and more clues to the easing of federal stimulus in the mortgage market.

(Read More: Rising Rates Sour Housing Market Plans)

Rising rates have already taken away considerable purchasing power for potential buyers. Fewer consumers now think it’s a good time to buy compared with just a month ago, according to a survey from Fannie Mae.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100874193

Housing Recovery Rides Rate Roller Coaster

Thu, 04 Jul 2013 02:27:25 +0000

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100862969

Rising Rates Scare Borrowers Into Action

Thu, 13 Jun 2013 01:13:11 +0000

Roughly 10 million refinances took place over the past two years, although that may include borrowers who have refinanced more than once, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. From mid-2011 to mid-2012, rates dropped by 100 basis points, making it worthwhile for some to refinance more than once.In addition to low rates, the government’s refinance program, called HARP, for underwater borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, helped juice refinances as well.

In the first three months of this year, there were nearly 1.4 million refinances on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages alone, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Of those, 22 percent were through HARP, which was recently extended through 2015. More than 2.4 million borrowers so far have taken advantage of that program.

For borrowers who don’t have government-backed loans and therefore don’t qualify for that program, rising home prices have helped allow more of them to qualify for refinances. Among borrowers, 850,000 rose above water on their mortgages, moving into a positive equity position in the first three months of this year, according to a new report from CoreLogic. While nearly 10 million are still underwater, the more that rise above, the more refinances can happen.

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“We are still far below peak home price levels, but tight supplies in many areas coupled with continued demand for single family homes should help us close the gap,” said Anand Nallathambi, the CEO of CoreLogic.

Rising prices, however, are a double-edged sword, especially in a rising interest rate environment. Potential buyers are losing purchasing power every day, just as demand is surging.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100810389

Record High New Home Prices Have Room to Grow

Thu, 23 May 2013 16:48:21 +0000

Supplies of new and existing homes are at levels not seen since the frenzy of the last housing boom. The phenomenon is national and not just relegated to the former boom markets. April listings were down 41 percent from a year ago in Los Angeles, down 24 percent in Houston, down 27 percent in Washington, DC and down 29 percent in Minneapolis. While the stock of newly built homes on the market rose to an 18-month high, builders are still facing land and labor shortages, which will keep starts lower than they could or should be based on demand.

(Read More: Homes Selling at Fastest Pace Since Boom)

“It has the look of a runaway housing boom again,” said Jane Fairweather, a Realtor in Maryland, who added that looks can be deceiving. “What you have is very inexpensive money and you have very few houses for sale. As soon as interest rates go up, I think you’ll see a lot of people back off.”

Interest rates have been moving steadily higher. After Wednesday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, rates took another jump of 0.375 percentage points.

“It’s an over-correction, but a painful one for buyers,” said Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage. “A home buyer has five percent less home purchasing power as compared to 24 hours ago.

In the end, sales will come down to buyer confidence, affordability and mortgage rates. Even if that last one moves higher, rates are still historically low and confidence is gaining steam despite the rising prices.

“This week I had a seller who got a full price offer in about four days and he refused to take it because he wanted multiple contracts, come on!” exclaimed Fairweather.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100761763

How Does the Fed Help My House, My Mortgage?

Sat, 15 Sep 2012 11:04:44 +0000

For those of you who expected to wake up to a 30-year fixed rate mortgage below 3 percent, you may as well go back to sleep.

Yes, rates moved down, 0.125 percent, according to several sources, but that was not as low as some had predicted. Remember, we hit the low of 3.49 percent in July, but then we jumped back into the mid to high threes. (Read More: Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates.)

“Short term, people who are thinking about moving really need to lock in,” says Craig Strent of Maryland-based Apex Home Loans. He is concerned that the strong consumer sentiment number that came in today could cause the Federal Reserve to pull back on its buying in the future. “When this thing turns, it’s going to be fast. Just pulling back a little sends a message,” adds Strent.

But others argue that the housing market is still on such shaky ground that that’s unlikely to happen. Mortgage applications to purchase a home have declined five of the last six months, according to Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

“I think that this will be a trillion dollar commitment from the Fed,” said Swonk on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “Home values appreciating, that’s something very important in this economy getting more legs and moving forward more rapidly.” (You can watch the interview here.)

So say mortgage rates could dip lower than the latest record, perhaps to around 3.25 percent. How does that help me? Does it boost my home price? (Read More: Will Fed’s Mortgage Buying Juice the Housing Recovery?)

On the one hand, lower mortgage rates give potential buyers more purchasing power. “A 0.125 percent drop in rates adds 1.5 percent to your maximum purchase price (given all the other fees),” according to Dan Green at Waterstone Mortgage. “Assuming a mortgage payment of $1500, that’s the difference between $404,800 and $411,000-ish.” So that is how much more house you can buy. If people can buy more house, then perhaps home prices will rise.

But as we’ve noted so many times before, the great low rate doesn’t mean anything if you can’t qualify, if you don’t have the down payment or credit scores to get it.

“Instead, the underlying improvement in housing demand is still very reliant on cash buyers and investors,” notes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics, who does not believe mortgage rates will fall dramatically. “Admittedly, low bond yields and savings rates more generally are probably playing a part in the strength of investor demand for housing.”

Lower rates could cause a boost in refinances, but so many have already refied at record low rates that it would take a pretty large drop to lure more in, given the fees and hassle involved. And of course negative equity keeps millions of potential refinancers out of the game. The government’s refinance program for underwater borrowers (HARP) has helped over half a million borrowers get lower rates since the beginning of this year, but unless you have a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
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There is a push by Democrats in Congress to expand the government’s refi program, and lower mortgage rates could help more Republicans come on board, but that is unlikely to happen before election day. (Read More: Wealthiest Counties Rake In Government-Backed Mortgages)

“To ensure as many voters as possible can benefit from this, we believe there will be another push to enact HARP expansion legislation during the lame duck session that will start after the election,” says Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Partners. “Lower mortgage rates only matter if people can refinance and plow that extra cash into the economy. Given that as many as a quarter of borrowers may be underwater, the HARP is the way to translate the Federal Reserve’s effort into economic stimulus.”

It is hard to say now just how low rates will go and just who will be able to benefit from lower mortgage rates. In today’s tricky housing recovery, so dependent on investors and so sensitive to a still-swollen pipeline of foreclosed properties and delinquent loans, mortgage rates are just one piece of the recovery puzzle.

Sector Watch – Nation’s Biggest Mortgage Lenders:

Questions? Comments? And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47260576?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

US home market pulls in more Chinese buyers

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 05:31:03 +0000

Buyers from mainland China and Hong Kong are snapping up luxury homes, often paying cash, in major U.S. cities such as New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. They’re coming by the dozens to buy foreclosed properties in downtrodden cities in Florida and Nevada. Chinese buyers are even starting to snap up pricey commercial buildings and hotels in Manhattan.

Chinese interest in U.S. real estate began climbing during the U.S. housing meltdown, when plunging property prices made the U.S. a magnet for global buyers. Today, interest is growing as a rising yuan — up more than 8% since mid-2010 — gives the Chinese greater purchasing power, and the mainland’s restrictions on property purchases encourages them to look overseas. With U.S. single-family home prices a third lower since 2006, the U.S. also compares favorably with other top markets for Chinese investment, such as the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada.

“For China, the world is an emerging opportunity,” says Andrew Taylor, founder of Juwai.com, a real estate site based in Hong Kong that was launched in 2011 to match Chinese buyers with U.S. real estate. “We’re talking about a huge chunk of people with cash and the desire” to invest overseas.

In the U.S., the Chinese are now the second-largest foreign buyers of homes, behind Canadians, accounting for $7.4 billion of sales in the 12 months ended March 2011, up 24% from the previous 12 months, according to the National Association of Realtors. Buyers from China and Hong Kong also spent $1.71 billion on commercial property in the U.S. in 2011, more than quadruple their investment in 2008, says Real Capital Analytics.

Those numbers likely understate Chinese investment, as investors may buy property under business entities they’ve set up in the U.S., says Patrick O’Neill, founder of ONeill Group, a Hong Kong-based company that helps Chinese buyers find U.S. property.

Roughly 40% of Chinese buyers want property in the U.S. as investments, while 60% are buying in anticipation of their children going to school here, or for business or immigration purposes, says Steven Lawson, chief executive of Windham China, a firm that helps match Chinese buyers with U.S. sellers.

Lily-Sui Zhang, 30, says her husband’s Beijing family bought a house in South Pasadena, Calif., last year so her three young children would have access to good public schools. The family thought investing in the U.S. was “probably more stable than in Beijing” due to concern about a Chinese real estate bubble, Zhang says.

Some Chinese buyers also see the U.S. as an attractive place to invest because on the mainland, Chinese never own land — they just lease it from the government.

While mainland China allows each citizen to exchange only $50,000 of yuan into foreign currency per year, wealthy clients often do business overseas and have offshore funds they can use to buy property, says Alan Liu, managing director of North Asia for Colliers International, a brokerage and real estate firm. The currency restriction doesn’t apply in Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China.

Hong Kong residents Lillian and Frank Yan say they bought a condo in Honolulu this year because U.S. property prices are relatively low compared with major cities in Asia. They plan to stay there two to four weeks a year, and rent it out the rest of the time.

“The majority of our equity is tied to the Hong Kong or Chinese economy, so we wanted to diversify our portfolio,” says Lillian Yan, 42.

A multitude of millionaires

China has more money to invest than ever. Mainland China now has 960,000 millionaires — defined as individuals with residences, private businesses and investable assets of more than 10 million yuan or $1.5 million, according to the Hurun Report, a Shanghai publisher of magazines for China’s wealthy.

Nearly half of those millionaires are considering moving or getting permission to reside overseas. Their top country of choice? The USA.

In the year ended Sept. 30, Chinese applicants accounted for 78% of the 3,805 EB-5 applications in the U.S., up from 35% four years before, according to government data. In that program, foreign investors can get permanent resident status, or “green cards,” in exchange for investing $500,000 or $1 million, depending on the part of the country, in ventures that create or sustain at least 10 jobs within two years of the immigrant investor’s admission to the U.S. as a conditional permanent resident.

Some lawmakers also see foreign investment as a way to boost the U.S. housing market.

Legislation proposed last fall by Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Mike Lee, R-Utah, would let foreigners get a three-year resident visa if they invest $500,000 in U.S. real estate, including $250,000 for a primary home. They’d have to live at least 180 days a year in the property and pay taxes here.

California dreamin’

The New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas are most popular with Chinese home buyers, according to Realtors and data from real estate website Trulia.

East West Bank, a regional bank heavily active in California with branches in China and Hong Kong, says U.S. home buying among mainland Chinese has been “stable” in recent years as buyers wait for prices in various markets to hit bottom.

“They want to buy at the lowest” price, says senior vice president Emily Wang.

In the affluent Southern California city of San Marino— where the median price of a home sold in January was $1.6 million, according to MDA DataQuick — Chinese buyers are looking for high-end homes in good school districts and neighborhoods likely to see stable home values, says Linda Chang of Coldwell Banker.

One of her recent mainland Chinese buyers paid $5 million for a 5,000-square-foot home in Pasadena that the family expects to occupy for one month a year, she says.

“They treat it like a hotel without room service,” says Chang, who estimates that a quarter of shoppers in the $3 million-plus market in her area are from mainland China.

Mainland Chinese also account for a third of the buyers at luxury home builder Toll Bros.’ new home development, The Heritage in Vista Del Verde in Yorba Linda, Calif., southeast of downtown Los Angeles.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, Realtor Stanley Lo of Green Banker real estate says mainland Chinese — a third of his clientele — are looking for homes priced at $800,000 and up. Most of his clients are Chinese business executives, who can afford second homes. They follow friends, relatives or work colleagues to the suburbs between San Francisco and the Silicon Valley.

One recent rainy afternoon, Lo showed a six-bedroom $4.5 million Hillsborough home to Lee Xiao Jun, from Hubei Province in China. Her husband works in manufacturing and makes frequent trips between the U.S. and China, so they want a home in a good location close to the San Francisco airport.

“The prices here are more reasonable than in China,” she says, standing under wood-beamed ceilings overlooking a garden terrace.

In New York City, mainland Chinese are increasingly paying cash for $20 million “trophy apartments,” says Pamela Liebman, CEO of The Corcoran Group, a residential real estate brokerage company.

Based on current trends — and the increasing numbers of mainland Chinese buyers — Liebman expects they’ll account for one in 10 uber-luxury buyers in the next year or two.

New York, New York

New York City is also popular with a growing number of Chinese investors looking for commercial property. Last year, China’s HNA Group, which owns Hainan Airlines, paid $265 million for 1180 Avenue of the Americas, a 23-story office building in Manhattan, and $126 million for the luxury Cassa Hotel and Residences near bustling Times Square.

Hong Kong billionaire Cheng Yu-tung’s family also bought five U.S. luxury hotels in 2011, including Manhattan’s iconic Carlyle, for $570 million. Chinese investors are looking to buy hotels as a growing number of mainlanders travel overseas, says Chris Brooke, chief executive of broker CBRE, Asia.

Yet, unlike the Japanese, who were criticized for overpaying for high-profile U.S. assets in the 1980s and 1990s, many Chinese investors “do not care about the image of a building and usually do not want to pay a premium for such image,” says Allen Wu, chairman of Wu Kao law firm, which represents HNA Group.

The rising numbers of Chinese investors are hard for U.S. developers and real estate agents to ignore.

LA Urban Homes, which is selling a development of 125 new homes in Southern California’s San Gabriel Valley, recently added a Chinese language section to its website to lure the mainland Chinese, says President Jeff Lee.

Corcoran is working with partners in China to bring potential buyers to New York.

Last year, Corcoran brought one group of 11 Chinese buyers, four of whom bought properties. This year, it plans to do at least four such events, maybe six, Liebman says.

“Five years ago, developers were coming to me about opportunities to invest in China, and now, they’re coming to me to try to get Chinese to invest” in the U.S., says Patrick Randolph, a professor of real estate law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a co-director of the Real Estate Research Center at Peking University in Beijing.

Zhuang Nuo, president of SouFun International, a Beijing real estate company that brings dozens of mainlanders to the U.S. each year to tour new and foreclosed properties, says he expects the U.S. to remain the top choice for clients buying overseas.

“The U.S. is always the Chinese people’s dream,” says Zhuang.

Article source: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-04-03/us-homes-lure-chinese-buyers/53977638/1