After 20 years in San Francisco, John Perry and Rob Picciotto, along with their children, Ben and Louisa, and three dogs, transplanted themselves to Oakland. “I didn’t think we would ever leave San Francisco, but a convergence of things made us consider moving,” said Perry.

In 1998, Perry and Picciotto had stretched to buy their Bernal Heights house and make it work as their family grew. In June it sold for more than triple what they’d paid, a windfall that allowed them to pay cash for a less expensive house in Oakland’s Leona Heights neighborhood in the hills above Mills College.

“We don’t have a mortgage anymore, which is awesome,” Perry said. “We doubled our square footage on more than an acre of land, and have phenomenal neighbors. Oakland is so diverse; it’s a whole new world to learn and explore. There’s more space, more mix.”

For a growing number of San Francisco residents, the math is compelling. Their houses now are worth more than ever. Meanwhile, although homes in the East Bay have had big price run-ups over the past year, they had fallen further during the downturn – meaning they’re still shy of their peaks.

“San Francisco is on the leading edge of the appreciation curve and other places are a step behind,” said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst with Paragon Real Estate Group in San Francisco. “The majority of our San Francisco neighborhoods now have met or exceeded their previous peak values reached in 2007 or 2008.”

Huge price differential

The result is that the price differential between San Francisco and other Bay Area counties, especially the East Bay, is greater now than ever, he said. Silicon Valley’s price appreciation has been strong enough that moving there from the city is more of a lateral move.

For David and Tamra Biener, the rising real estate market meant they could finally trade their cramped Dolores Street condo for a bigger place in the East Bay. With children soon to turn 6 and 8, their family outgrew the two-bedroom condo a couple of years ago – they’d converted the dining room to a third bedroom to make do – but were stuck because they were underwater.

“Our kids running up and down the hallway sounded like a herd of elephants to the people above and below,” he said. “We wanted to move in 2011, but at that time the condo was worth maybe $50,000 less than I’d bought it for. I was thinking, it’s another $50,000 in (real estate) commissions, so it will cost us $100,000 to get out of the condo. We can’t do that because we have to come up with 20 percent down on the new house. It’s supposed to work the other way.”

Way over asking price

But now the tide has turned.

“The crazy thing is that two years go by, we list our house for $50,000 more than I paid and get another $125,000 over listing,” he said.

Listed at $875,000, the house went for just a tad over $1 million. As soon as they were in contract, the Bieners made an offer on a five-bedroom Walnut Creek house with lots of room for the kids. It was listed at $1.285 million; their offer was just $15,000 over asking.

“There are two things going on that favor moving from the city to outside the city,” he said. “The prices have gone up way faster in San Francisco than they have outside of it. And the demand is so much higher in the city that you get that extra 10 or 20 percent over listing.”

Agents around the region said they’re seeing a definite increase in San Francisco out-migration.

“There was a time when you could be a move-up buyer in San Francisco, taking the equity out of your home or condo and buying a bigger one in the city, but that’s not the story anymore,” said Steve Dells, an agent for 25 years with Zephyr Real Estate in San Francisco. “The values in San Francisco have escalated so quickly and so much that whatever a move-up buyer can afford likely won’t be enough space to accommodate their reason for moving.”

Ashley Langworthy and Peter Gleason would have liked to be move-up San Francisco buyers, but the financials didn’t pencil out. With twins on the way, the couple needed more space than their one-bedroom Hayes Valley tenancy in common.

‘Cold foggy areas’

“The places in San Francisco where we could afford more space were in cold foggy areas near the edge of Daly City,” said Langworthy, a landscape designer. “We would have stayed in San Francisco if we could have been in neighborhoods we liked.”

Instead, they looked in the East Bay. However, the competition over there meant they got outbid 10 times and ended up paying above asking for a two-bedroom Berkeley house.

Their Hayes Valley TIC went for almost $100,000 more than the $450,000 they paid for it in 2008, not a windfall but enough to help them get a foothold in a stand-alone house in the East Bay. “I think the East Bay is a little more affordable than San Francisco, but it’s still very competitive,” Langworthy said.

Christine Englund and Dean Charlton migrated from the city to the East Bay because she got a dream job in San Ramon.

“Our house in West Portal is in one of the foggiest neighborhoods in town; 2 miles up from the ocean, you’re totally socked in for the summer,” Englund said. “It’s a two-bedroom one-bathroom, with a little yard, just 1,500 square feet.”

Listed at $799,000, the house got 12 offers and sold in late May for $1.025 million. “We hit just the right time,” Englund said. “Interest rates were still a bit lower than now and inventory was so tight in San Francisco.”

Their East Bay house, located in upscale Piedmont, was cheaper at $905,000 but at least 50 percent larger, with a third bedroom, second bathroom, bigger yard, deck and even a wine cellar.

“We got so much more space for the money, and then the weather, the people, the restaurants, everything we value were also great,” she said.

Fewer school-age kids in S.F.

While the current exodus is too new to have official statistics, longer-range census data underscore San Francisco’s ongoing family drain. San Francisco has about 8,000 fewer school-age youngsters in 2010 than in 2000. Of the city’s 805,235 residents, just 13.4 percent are younger than 18 – a smaller percentage than any other major U.S. city, including the Manhattan section of New York City, where 15 percent of the population is under 18. In San Jose, 24.8 percent of the residents are children; in Oakland, it’s 21.3 percent.

What will it mean to San Francisco if families continue to flee?

Perry, the 20-year resident who recently moved out with his partner and their children, has some sanguine thoughts.

“San Francisco renews itself on a regular basis,” he said. “A lot of cities don’t sustain the same populations through all the stages of (the residents’) lives. There may be different cities for different times in our life.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Families-flee-S-F-for-East-Bay-with-cheaper-homes-4796027.php

After 20 years in San Francisco, John Perry and Rob Picciotto, along with their children, Ben and Louisa, and three dogs, transplanted themselves to Oakland. “I didn’t think we would ever leave San Francisco, but a convergence of things made us consider moving,” said Perry.

In 1998, Perry and Picciotto had stretched to buy their Bernal Heights house and make it work as their family grew. In June it sold for more than triple what they’d paid, a windfall that allowed them to pay cash for a less expensive house in Oakland’s Leona Heights neighborhood in the hills above Mills College.

“We don’t have a mortgage anymore, which is awesome,” Perry said. “We doubled our square footage on more than an acre of land, and have phenomenal neighbors. Oakland is so diverse; it’s a whole new world to learn and explore. There’s more space, more mix.”

For a growing number of San Francisco residents, the math is compelling. Their houses now are worth more than ever. Meanwhile, although homes in the East Bay have had big price run-ups over the past year, they had fallen further during the downturn – meaning they’re still shy of their peaks.

“San Francisco is on the leading edge of the appreciation curve and other places are a step behind,” said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst with Paragon Real Estate Group in San Francisco. “The majority of our San Francisco neighborhoods now have met or exceeded their previous peak values reached in 2007 or 2008.”

Huge price differential

The result is that the price differential between San Francisco and other Bay Area counties, especially the East Bay, is greater now than ever, he said. Silicon Valley’s price appreciation has been strong enough that moving there from the city is more of a lateral move.

For David and Tamra Biener, the rising real estate market meant they could finally trade their cramped Dolores Street condo for a bigger place in the East Bay. With children soon to turn 6 and 8, their family outgrew the two-bedroom condo a couple of years ago – they’d converted the dining room to a third bedroom to make do – but were stuck because they were underwater.

“Our kids running up and down the hallway sounded like a herd of elephants to the people above and below,” he said. “We wanted to move in 2011, but at that time the condo was worth maybe $50,000 less than I’d bought it for. I was thinking, it’s another $50,000 in (real estate) commissions, so it will cost us $100,000 to get out of the condo. We can’t do that because we have to come up with 20 percent down on the new house. It’s supposed to work the other way.”

Way over asking price

But now the tide has turned.

“The crazy thing is that two years go by, we list our house for $50,000 more than I paid and get another $125,000 over listing,” he said.

Listed at $875,000, the house went for just a tad over $1 million. As soon as they were in contract, the Bieners made an offer on a five-bedroom Walnut Creek house with lots of room for the kids. It was listed at $1.285 million; their offer was just $15,000 over asking.

“There are two things going on that favor moving from the city to outside the city,” he said. “The prices have gone up way faster in San Francisco than they have outside of it. And the demand is so much higher in the city that you get that extra 10 or 20 percent over listing.”

Agents around the region said they’re seeing a definite increase in San Francisco out-migration.

“There was a time when you could be a move-up buyer in San Francisco, taking the equity out of your home or condo and buying a bigger one in the city, but that’s not the story anymore,” said Steve Dells, an agent for 25 years with Zephyr Real Estate in San Francisco. “The values in San Francisco have escalated so quickly and so much that whatever a move-up buyer can afford likely won’t be enough space to accommodate their reason for moving.”

Ashley Langworthy and Peter Gleason would have liked to be move-up San Francisco buyers, but the financials didn’t pencil out. With twins on the way, the couple needed more space than their one-bedroom Hayes Valley tenancy in common.

‘Cold foggy areas’

“The places in San Francisco where we could afford more space were in cold foggy areas near the edge of Daly City,” said Langworthy, a landscape designer. “We would have stayed in San Francisco if we could have been in neighborhoods we liked.”

Instead, they looked in the East Bay. However, the competition over there meant they got outbid 10 times and ended up paying above asking for a two-bedroom Berkeley house.

Their Hayes Valley TIC went for almost $100,000 more than the $450,000 they paid for it in 2008, not a windfall but enough to help them get a foothold in a stand-alone house in the East Bay. “I think the East Bay is a little more affordable than San Francisco, but it’s still very competitive,” Langworthy said.

Christine Englund and Dean Charlton migrated from the city to the East Bay because she got a dream job in San Ramon.

“Our house in West Portal is in one of the foggiest neighborhoods in town; 2 miles up from the ocean, you’re totally socked in for the summer,” Englund said. “It’s a two-bedroom one-bathroom, with a little yard, just 1,500 square feet.”

Listed at $799,000, the house got 12 offers and sold in late May for $1.025 million. “We hit just the right time,” Englund said. “Interest rates were still a bit lower than now and inventory was so tight in San Francisco.”

Their East Bay house, located in upscale Piedmont, was cheaper at $905,000 but at least 50 percent larger, with a third bedroom, second bathroom, bigger yard, deck and even a wine cellar.

“We got so much more space for the money, and then the weather, the people, the restaurants, everything we value were also great,” she said.

Fewer school-age kids in S.F.

While the current exodus is too new to have official statistics, longer-range census data underscore San Francisco’s ongoing family drain. San Francisco has about 8,000 fewer school-age youngsters in 2010 than in 2000. Of the city’s 805,235 residents, just 13.4 percent are younger than 18 – a smaller percentage than any other major U.S. city, including the Manhattan section of New York City, where 15 percent of the population is under 18. In San Jose, 24.8 percent of the residents are children; in Oakland, it’s 21.3 percent.

What will it mean to San Francisco if families continue to flee?

Perry, the 20-year resident who recently moved out with his partner and their children, has some sanguine thoughts.

“San Francisco renews itself on a regular basis,” he said. “A lot of cities don’t sustain the same populations through all the stages of (the residents’) lives. There may be different cities for different times in our life.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Families-flee-S-F-for-East-Bay-with-cheaper-homes-4796027.php

Droves of cheap foreclosed homes are drawing serious investor money. From mom-and-pop folks seeking retirement income to Wall Street-backed funds with hundreds of millions to spend, investors buy distressed homes to either fix and flip or, increasingly, to hold and rent out, mainly focusing on the most-affordable areas – those most devastated by the downturn.

“There is a tsunami of money coming into the market, billions of dollars to buy distressed single-family homes,” said Jeff Lerman, a San Rafael real estate lawyer, speaking about the national landscape. “The window of opportunity is rapidly closing (as prices rise). Over the next 18 months, profit margins in single-family opportunistic buying will be compressed quite a bit.”

But for now, many distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – sell for about a third off their peak values, and often for less than it would cost to build a new home.

Investor impact in the Bay Area was magnified during the downturn. That’s because for many years, the Bay Area’s stratospheric prices made buying homes to rent out a losing proposition, so investors bought elsewhere.

“Historically the (sales) price-to-rent ratio for California single-family homes has never made sense to hold houses at any scale,” said Brian Burke, managing director of Praxis Capital, a Santa Rosa real estate investment company. “But the market dynamics have completely changed and opened up an opportunity for us to buy, hold and rent, as well as buying to fix and flip.”

A Chronicle analysis of sales data compiled by San Diego research firm DataQuick showed that absentee buyers, who once bought about 10 percent of homes sold in the nine Bay Area counties, account for about a quarter of all purchases this year, more than doubling their share. Absentee buyers are defined as those who have property tax bills sent to a different address than the house they just bought.

Absentee buyers

Absentee buyers were most common in Solano County, where they accounted for almost a third of sales. Solano has by far the lowest median home prices in the Bay Area, weighing in at $200,000 in September, for instance.

Flipped homes – those resold within six months of purchase – went from about 2.5 percent of all Bay Area sales in 2007 to about 4 percent of sales currently, with the biggest bump coming this year. Again, bargain-basement Solano had the most activity, with around 6 percent of sales being flipped homes.

Investors played a big role in helping the market start to recover, experts say.

“The real estate market hit a floor sooner because of investor appetite, so it plays into a stabilizing housing market and overall economy,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage.

But there’s a downside, too. Deep-pocketed investors paying all cash often elbow out prospective homeowners. “It makes it awfully frustrating for first-time buyers who have to compete with them,” LePage said.

Big draw for investors

For now, market dynamics continue to lure investors.

“There are a lot of investors out there, large and small, who continue to relish residential real estate in a market where many people either don’t want to buy a house or cannot buy a house and so are renting,” LePage said. “For a lot of these investors, it’s still penciling out at sometimes-record levels.”

Praxis Capital is a case in point. In 2009, Burke, who had 20 years experience buying homes at foreclosure auctions, partnered with Rivendale Homes, a large private builder, to form Praxis. It started buying about 100 to 120 homes a year to fix and flip in 12 northern California counties, including the East Bay, North Bay and Sacramento area.

A year ago, Praxis started buying houses to hold onto and rent out because home prices finally made the math work, generating positive cash flow. It now has about 100 rental homes, with more in the pipeline.

For instance, it paid $182,000 at a foreclosure auction for a four-bedroom, two-bathroom Santa Rosa tract home that is now getting a $15,000 “cosmetic rehab” of new carpets, paint, flooring and landscaping. The house should rent for $1,950, Burke said. Once it’s rehabbed, he projects its market value will be $253,000. After renting this and similar homes out for five to seven years, Praxis will sell, hoping for significant appreciation.

Praxis has spent $15 million to date on both its flipped and rental properties, and is launching a fund in January focused just on buying homes to rent out. It hopes to raise $25 million, primarily from high-net-worth individuals in the region – winemaking families, small business owners and professionals who are looking to diversify their portfolios, Burke said.

Finding tenants is easy because so many displaced families need housing.

Dominating the market

“Right now the dominating force driving the rental market in California is foreclosed-upon former homeowners transitioning to renters,” Burke said. “That demographic is an important market segment for us.”

Fixing up dilapidated foreclosures “is the home building of the current decade,” Burke said. “In the 2000s, people were building houses everywhere. The home building of today is taking an old rundown house that hasn’t been cared for and bringing it up to current standards and modernizing it.”

Despite its millions of dollars worth of investments, Praxis is small compared with the Wall Street-backed giants who have plunged into the distressed residential real estate market. Oakland’s Waypoint Real Estate Investment Group, for instance, hopes to pour $1 billion into single-family homes over the next couple of years. It owns hundreds of homes in eastern Contra Costa County and Oakland, as well as markets outside the Bay Area.

It’s since been joined by other private-equity backed heavyweights, including Blackstone Group, Colony Capital, Och-Ziff and American Homes 4 Rent.

Many of those big players are focusing on cheaper markets than the Bay Area, such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida. Likewise many mom-and-pop investors have shied away from buying locally.

‘Unlikely to last’

“California doesn’t have large cash flow; it’s more of an appreciation play,” said Kathy Fettke, CEO of Real Wealth Network, a Walnut Creek real-estate investment club. Her club usually steers members to lower-cost markets, but recently recommended buying California homes between $150,000 and $300,000.

“This is the first time we’re featuring California,” Fettke said. “We now have a combination of low home prices and low interest rates, which makes for better cash flow than we’ve ever seen.”

But it’s unlikely to last. “In the last six months, prices have gone up as much as 20 percent in certain neighborhoods,” she said.

“Investor activity eventually will taper off,” LePage said. “Prices will get to the point where it doesn’t pencil. That’s inevitable – but the big question is when. You have to know when the economy will gain a lot more traction.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Investors-rushing-into-real-estate-deals-4026281.php

The overall index showed a 3.4% drop from October 2010 to October 2011.  In San Francisco, the news was worse.  Home values overall here went down by 4.7% during the same period.  For the 1 month period from September to October, San Francisco saw values fall by 0.7%.  Nationally, the decrease was 0.6%.  But, as we all know, real estate is all about location, location, location.  In locales where the median price is higher, homes aren’t getting hammered as hard.

While the overall figures looks dismal, our friends at SocketSite dug further into the Bay Area numbers and uncovered some variations within the market.  Higher priced homes are faring better in this real estate downturn.  Homes in the $600,000+ range showed a 1 month increase and the yearly figure, which was still down, is not nearly as bad as lower priced homes.

The bottom third (under $319,767 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from September to October (down 9.1% YOY); the middle third was unchanged from September to October (down 8.1% YOY); and the top third (over $599,697 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.3% from September to October, down 1.6% year-over-year (versus down 3.1% in September).

The recent stats follow the overall trend of single family homes in San Francisco.  The homes in the top third have dropped 25% from their peak values while the bottom third and middle third of the market has seen price decreases of 60% and 41%.  And as Anna Marie Hibble wrote, the rise of Bay Area IPOs may just continue to put more zing in real estate, especially in the higher end of the market.

Article source: http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2011/12/28/in-sf-higher-priced-homes-fared-better/