homesmillbrae.com » Panelist

Real Estate, No Longer a Dirty Word

Fri, 07 Jun 2013 00:50:18 +0000

The opening panel at the ULI Real Estate Finance and Investment conference at Dean Schwanke, SVP of Urban Land Institute.

Part 1 of 2

SAN FRANCISCO-Real estate is no longer a dirty word; it is a well-performing asset class. So said David Lynn, EVP and chief investment strategist of Cole Real Estate Investments, during a discussion about the CMBS market here yesterday at the ULI Real Estate Finance and Investment conference. Real estate is much safer than it has been for some time and for the borrower and lender, it is an attractive environment.

The CMBS market, Lynn said, was scarce two years ago, but is now much more broadly available. There is a real need for it and investors want the yield … CMBS makes sense.

It makes sense, Lynn continued, particularly in the secondary and tertiary markets where there has been a financing gap, but it doesnt necessarily make sense in the primary.

The conference brought together both providers and users of capital to explore key trends that are driving successful real estate investing today. Lynn was a panelist on the opening panel, moderated by Dean Schwanke, SVP of Urban Land Institute.

The panel began with a reviewed ULIs recent consensus forecast, a three-year forecast for 27 economic and real estate indicators. The survey was undertaken from March 4 to march 25, 2013.

Industry experts gather at UCSFs Mission Bay Conference Center for a networking break.

Among other things, the consensus predicted that: Real GDP Growth will continue getting better; showed inflation will increase up to 3% by 2015; cap rates are expected to fall this year and then rise up to 6.2% next year; transaction volume is expected to rise; strength continues on the industrial and warehouse side, with rental rates expected to grow; rental rates for office is expected to grow for the next three years; hotel occupancy rates will continue to rise over the next few years; and home price increase are expected to be stronger, well above inflation.

Richard Sinkuler, partner and global real estate markets leader of Ernst Young,commented on the consensus GDP growth prediction, noting that there are still a lot of headwinds if you look at things globally. There is still some uncertainty and that uncertainty is our enemy because it is still making people who make decisions say, oh well, we will wait and see. And it is four years now of a slowdown.

But Andrew Nelson, director of research and strategy at Deutsche Asset Wealth Management, thought there is a better picture to paint. Sure, the public sector is very much standing in the way right now, he said, but the private sector is recovering nicely. It is a normal kind of reaction to such a severe downturn. It is kind of a bamboo thing where it takes several years underground before it is going to shoot up. We are seeing some positive things like exports increasing and job growth, for example.

Lynn added that there are more positives than negatives. The private sector is in relatively good health. Exports are increasing for the US. We are becoming a major energy power and that isnt insignificantit is helping our economy is a variety of ways, he said. Consumers have been deleveraging over the past several years and are in better shape. They are beginning to re-lever again.

But the big worry is still the jobs picture, which Lynn said has been anemic. It is a new normal, said Lynn, but it is a pretty good environment for real estate. You are seeing fundamentals improve in all sectors. The debt part of this has been very attractive. The economy is gradually improving and the cost of capital is very attractive.

Check back with GlobeSt.com for part two of this panel discussion, where the panel touches on the 10-year treasury, and on a majority of returns stemming from income.

Article source: http://www.globest.com/news/12_619/sanfrancisco/finance/Real-Estate-No-Longer-a-Dirty-Word-334129.html

Predicting Home Prices Is Now Impossible

Thu, 16 Jun 2011 09:58:25 +0000

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When Robert Shiller, co-creator of the SP/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , speaks, he tends to make headlines, and yesterday was no different.

Claiming that he wasn’t making any predictions, he predicted that home prices could fall another 25 percent.

“That wouldn’t surprise me at all,” he hedged. And there was the headline, tragic as it is.

I happened to be at the conference yesterday where he said that. In fact, I was a speaker/panelist at the Standard and Poors “Housing Summit 2011: Boom, Bust and Beyond.” And, no offense, but that wasn’t the headline. What really struck me was what he said right before that.

“Statisticians deal with things that repeat themselves. This housing boom and bust is so historic and unprecedented, you can’t forecast the future because you have no comparison.”

That was not only the headline, but the theme of the conference, as I sat on a panel with economists from SP, Experian and Columbia Business School. Chip Case was there as well, disagreeing with Shiller on several points.

Audience members, largely from the finance industry, kept asking the same question in different ways, ‘When is this all going to get better??’

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43354956?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Predicting Home Prices is Now Impossible

Fri, 10 Jun 2011 23:31:04 +0000

Page 1 of 3 | Next Page
Show Entire Article

When Robert Shiller, co-creator of the SP/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , speaks, he tends to make headlines, and yesterday was no different.

Claiming that he wasn’t making any predictions, he predicted that home prices could fall another 25 percent.

“That wouldn’t surprise me at all,” he hedged. And there was the headline, tragic as it is.

I happened to be at the conference yesterday where he said that. In fact, I was a speaker/panelist at the Standard and Poors “Housing Summit 2011: Boom, Bust and Beyond.” And, no offense, but that wasn’t the headline. What really struck me was what he said right before that.

“Statisticians deal with things that repeat themselves. This housing boom and bust is so historic and unprecedented, you can’t forecast the future because you have no comparison.”

That was not only the headline, but the theme of the conference, as I sat on a panel with economists from SP, Experian and Columbia Business School. Chip Case was there as well, disagreeing with Shiller on several points.

Audience members, largely from the finance industry, kept asking the same question in different ways, ‘When is this all going to get better??’

Page 1 of 3 | Next Page
Show Entire Article

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Is Housing Really in Recovery?

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 22:17:57 +0000

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During one of my reports today on how gas prices could affect the housing recovery, one of the anchors asked me if I really believe there is a housing recovery right now.

That’s a very good question.

Yesterday, the Realtors chief economist questioned it himself.

Today a new report from Robert Shiller’s outfit, MacroMarkets, found that of 111 housing market experts and economists surveyed, nearly half foresee a double-dip in home prices happening this year, “and not a single panelist expects national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.” In December, only 15 percent projected a new post-crash low would materialize for home prices. We are now less than 1 percent away from that mark, according to the survey.

“Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate,” writes Shiller. “Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013.”

This report comes on the same day that Fannie Mae’s chief economist put out a report claiming uncertainty in Japan and trouble in Libya will directly affect housing’s recovery, specifically citing rising gas prices.

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