“As a result, refinance applications dropped sharply to the lowest level in over a month.”

Applications to buy a home also dropped 5 percent week-to-week, indicating a still weak and rate-sensitive purchase market. One third of buyers in today’s housing market use all-cash. Many in the housing industry complain that it is not the rates but the availability of potential borrowers to obtain financing that is holding the market back from a more robust recovery.

The chairman of the National Association of Home builders says that while his cohort is feeling more confident about their business, “overly stringent lending standards” are holding back a more robust recovery.

(Read More: Housing Starts Fall as Sandy Slows Northeast)

Mortgage rates have been below 4 percent since May of 2012 and refinance volume has surged accordingly. Those refinances, many of them under the government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) for underwater borrowers, have helped to fuel consumer spending and have likely kept many borrowers from defaulting on their loans.

The big drop in refinances after such a small move up in rates indicates that the slightest move, up or down, can really change activity. The hope, of course, had been for rates to continue moving down.

“A lot of money has been spent between OT [Operation Twist] and QE3 for very little incremental reward,” notes Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak. “The true cost, yet to be determined, will of course occur when the likely market forced exit begins.”

If mortgage rates rise markedly in 2013, the housing recovery will undoubtedly take a hit. The recovery in housing began with all-cash investors, but owner-occupants are quickly moving in.

“Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA financed a record $31.2 billion in so-called conforming jumbo mortgages during the third quarter of 2012,” according to a new Inside Mortgage Finance ranking and analysis. “Business in conforming jumbo loans – defined as mortgages on one-unit properties that exceed $417,000 – rose 29.6 percent from the second quarter and represented the highest quarterly volume for the agencies since emergency loan limits went into effect back in 2008.”

Unfortunately many buyers are either too young or too forgetful to realize that mortgage rates are incredibly, historically low, despite slight moves up week-to-week. The good news is in the near term is that when some buyers see rates tick up, they jump into purchase more quickly, for fear the rates will keep going up.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100327898

As big banks and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [ FMCC 0.373  +0.0145 (+4.04%) ] push foreclosures through the pipeline, the inventory of REO (bank-owned) properties is rising.

That pushes distressed and overall home prices down.

Note in California, median home prices took their steepest dive in May, down 8.2 percent year over year to $280,000, as distressed sales made up more than half the market.

Nobody knows all this better than mortgage giant, government-owned Fannie Mae [ FNMA 0.345  +0.018 (+5.45%) ], which at the end of March had more than 153,000 single family foreclosed properties on its books, worth $14.1 billion.

Fannie acquired 53,549 foreclosed properties in the first quarter, up from just under 46,000 in the previous quarter.

No surprise they are now adding incentives to unload these properties: The expanded incentives offer qualified homebuyers up to 3.5 percent of the final sales price to put towards closing costs.

In addition, selling agents representing the owner-occupant buyer can now receive a $1,200 bonus. The incentive must be requested in the initial offer.

Eligible initial offers must be submitted on or after today, June 14, and must close by Oct. 31, 2011. Investor sales are not eligible for the incentive.

Note, however, that these incentives are only for owner-occupants, not investors.

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