How do I loathe home price day?

Let me count the ways.

The rash generalizations, the seasonal vs. non-seasonal adjustment confusion, the month-to-month vs. year-over-year, the contention among all the varied home price reports from the various and varied entities that track them.

I could go on, but if you are a regular Realty Check reader, you’ve heard all this before.

This month is particularly frustrating, because the big headline from SP/Case Shiller was that home prices rose for the first time in eight months. Okay, yes, from March to April, with no seasonal adjustments, home prices rose barely, less than one percent, in the nation’s top 20 housing markets. When you seasonally adjust those numbers, the prices fall. Why?

Because in different seasons, different types of buyers buy different types of homes.

The Spring market is historically replete with families; these are move-up buyers, purchasing larger, more expensive homes. That skews the overall prices higher. They buy in the Spring because they want to move over the summer, when school is out. You tend to see more single and first-time buyers in the fall.

This is why I judge prices year over year, because you are comparing apples to apples. Prices are down in 19 out of the top 20 markets year-over-year, with six markets hitting new lows on the SP/Case Shiller Home Price Index.

Page 1 of 3 | Next Page
Show Entire Article

Greek Parliament Starts Austerity Debate

Greek Growth Minister Confident That Vote Will Pass

Euro to Hit $1.45 if Greece Says ‘Yes’: Strategist

Is the Greek Crisis a Boon for Russia’s Gazprom?

IEA Move Sees Spread Bets Turn Sour for Oil Traders

More Top Stories

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43564196?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Let me preface with an apology for the huge supply of numbers in this post, but if you can make it through them all, I think you will get the picture I’m drawing here.

The so-called “shadow inventory” of residential properties is falling, according to a new report from CoreLogic.

This is the number of homes with seriously delinquent loans (90+ days), loans in the foreclosure process and bank-owned homes which are not yet listed for sale.

The supply as of April 2011 declined to 1.7 million units, representing a five months’ supply. This is down from 1.9 million units, also a five months’ supply, from a year ago.

“The decline was due to fewer new delinquencies and the high level of distressed sales, which helped reduce the number of outstanding distressed loans,” according to the report.

Good news, no? Wait. There’s more:

“In addition to the current shadow inventory, there are 2 million current negative equity loans that are more than 50 percent or $150,000 “upside down.” These current but underwater loans have increased risk of entering the shadow inventory if the owners’ ability to pay is impaired while significantly underwater.”

And then there’s this other report from Lender Processing Services (LPS), which also reports a drop in newly delinquent loans, but gives the actual, mind-numbing numbers of loans in trouble:

Page 1 of 4 | Next Page
Show Entire Article

Oil Traders: Tapping Reserve Was ‘Genius’ Move by Obama

Tapping Oil Reserve Still Won’t Lower Gas Prices Below $3

Chinese Premier Declares Inflation Victory

Doug Kass: Ominous Pattern Confirms SP Is Challenged

Did the IEA Just Deliver a QE3 Quick Fix?

More Top Stories

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43495174?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

It wasn’t at all what I expected. With accusations over the weekend by various journalists that the Realtors have been overestimating existing home sales numbers, I was ready for a full-court PR press at this morning’s monthly sales report lockup. Not so much.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun opened with, “This is going to be a fun press conference!” After detailing the usual monthly report, and carefully acknowledging a nearly 33 percentage point seasonal adjustment in sales numbers (!), Yun addressed the brewing controversy. He explained how they last “benchmarked” sales using Census figures back in 2000, but that they couldn’t do that in 2010 because the Census changed some of its survey questions. He admitted that the last revision to data in 2000 showed a 13 percent “drift,” as in the NAR’s numbers were 13 percent too high.

I won’t get into all the reasons for the “benchmark” troubles…okay, it’s really 3 reasons: 1) Consolidation of many MLS’s (multiple listing service—where Realtors list properties), so a rise in the numbers could be due to the MLS’s area getting bigger, not more sales, 2) Properties being listed on multiple MLS’s (so sales are double counted), and 3) A big drop in For Sale By Owner properties, so with more sellers using agents, there are more properties on the MLS to sell.

Page 1 of 4 | Next Page
Show Entire Article

Speed Is the Key for US Shipping in ‘Post-Panamax’ Era

Austerity, Oil Prices Helping Put the ‘Stag’ in ‘Stagflation’

Oil Traders Brace for Upside Risk on Mideast Turmoil

BlackRock’s Doll Says Worst May Be Over

Ex-Fed Vice Chair Kohn Plays Down Inflation Threat

More Top Stories

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41739037?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS