Forecasters expected sales of existing homes to rise in June because the pending home sales index, which measures signed contracts, rose in May. If you consider it takes 1-2 months to close, then there’s your indicator.

But that was not the case.

Sales fell, not by much, down 0.8% month-to-month, surprising even the Realtors, who thought May would be the weakest point. Sales were down 8.8 percent from June of last year, when most closings took place from the end of the home buyer tax credit.

What Realtors and prognosticators did not even consider was a strange phenomenon: June saw a spike in the contract cancellation rate to 16 percent. Existing home cancellation rates usually run under ten percent, and, in fact, in May were at just 4 percent. Cancellation rates for new home construction usually run higher than that, as buyers of newly built homes tend to be more volatile and put less (often nothing) down when signing a contract.

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43824730?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

What does the consumer price index (CPI) have to tell us about the future of the housing market?

Apparently a lot.

Let me first explain a few things for those of you housing types who don’t follow this monthly number. The CPI is the most common way to measure inflation. There’s the big number and then what’s called the “core” number, which is the big number minus food and energy costs (gas prices obviously skewing things a lot these days). The big number was pushed down thanks to a drop in gasoline prices, but the core number was higher than expected, thanks to housing.

One component of the CPI is the “Owners Equivalent Rent,” (OER) measures the amount of money it costs to live somewhere, anywhere, be it a rental apartment or your own home.

“The key factor in the higher than expected core rate was a .2 percent rise in Owners Equivalent Rent, the biggest gain since March ’09,” writes Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak. “This figure is important because it makes up 25 percent of CPI and 40 percent of the core. Apartment landlords are gaining pricing power as vacancies fall as the homeownership continues its decline. This is a secular trend and will result in a further lift in core inflation going forward.”

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43769306?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS