First Republic Bank’s Prestige Home Index indicates luxury homes in San Francisco had a strong finish to 2013. But some suggest that California’s high-end housing market is starting to see a slowdown.

Mark Calvey
Senior Reporter- San Francisco Business Times

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The Bay Area’s luxury home market is signaling a slowdown ahead even as prices late last year were still showing year-over-year double-digit increases.

First Republic Bank’s Home Prestige Index released Monday found that luxury home prices in the Bay Area and other key California markets are near records amid tight supplies of homes selling for $1 million and often more.

But it’s the commentary from real estate agents that set off alarms for careful followers of the luxury housing market. The commentary follows recent economic reports pointing to a national housing slowdown, which some blame on the extremely cold weather. The National Association of Realtors said last week that January existing home sales fell more than 5 percent nationally, the worst showing in 18 months. But if bad weather is to blame, some ask why were sales down 7.3 percent in the warm and sunny West?

In discussing First Republic’s latest quarterly figures released Monday, real estate agents in California’s luxury housing market are using telltale language of trouble ahead, with such phrases as “supply is plentiful” and the “market is solid,” while others see “buyer resistance” and “expect the market to level off.”

That type of talk could put a further chill on the housing market and prompt more home owners to put their properties on the market before prices fall.

Real estate agents say that pricing and demand for the limited supply of homes on the market is approaching levels last seen just before the housing market began to crater in 2007.

Earlier this month, Christopher Stafford and Terry Wright, both of Paragon Real Estate Group in San Francisco, sent an email to clients alerting them to “shifts in the San Francisco real estate market.”

“It is far too early in the year to reach definitive conclusions regarding substantive changes in the market, but there are indications of a number of shifts,” the Paragon agents said. “From the hurly burly on the street, the word is that the quantity of offers coming in on new listings is declining. Where a new listing might have attracted 10 or 12 offers last spring, three or four are coming in now; where three or four offers would have arrived, the seller is getting one.”

For those who don’t fully appreciate what the decline in offers mean, the Paragon brokers put it bluntly, “The amount of competition deeply affects home-price increases.”

“And, according to Broker Metrics, for every two listings that accepted offers in December and January, another listing expired or was withdrawn without selling.”

The Paragon agents see plenty of potential buyers checking out online listings and open houses, but more of them are first-time buyers who are “proceeding more cautiously.” Plus that group doesn’t come in with the buying power of home equity built up over the years.

“Though the market remains hot by any reasonable standard, by some statistical measure it is cooling,” the Paragon agents advised clients. “This may reflect a transition or only a lull before the spring sales season begins.”

On Monday Stafford echoed a frequently heard lament in Bay Area real estate circles, “There is no inventory.”

“It seems some of the heat has been taken off the market,” Stafford told me, adding that he views any references to the market “cooling” as overstating the case.

Those hoping that the Bay Area’s luxury housing market gets a big lift this spring might be disappointed as the affluent experience what Marcum’s accountants call “tax shock” as their higher 2013 tax bills must be paid. This segment of the market is also greatly affected by stock market performance, given how much wealth is created in the Bay Area through stock options and initial public offerings. The IPO market also helps set prices paid by acquirers of private companies. The tie between stocks and luxury housing is so strong that one real estate agent, when asked for his outlook on the region’s luxury home market, said, “You’re asking me to predict what the stock market will do.”

The traditionally strong spring housing market may see even more inventory come to market if home owners decide that they’ll get better prices by selling sooner than later.

On Monday, First Republic’s closely watched survey of luxury home values clocked in strong gains from a year ago, but more modest gains from the third quarter, especially when looking at the third quarter’s gain over the second quarter of 2013.

In the Bay Area, luxury home values in last year’s fourth quarter rose 12.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and 1.8 percent from the third quarter of 2013. That was just below the third quarter’s gain of 1.9 percent from the second quarter of 2013.

In Los Angeles, the fourth quarter’s luxury home values rose 13.7 percent from from a year ago and 1.3 percent from the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter gain was down sharply from a 6.7 percent gain seen in the third quarter from the second quarter.

In San Diego, luxury home values rose 16.6 percent year-over-year and 1.3 percent from the third quarter of 2013. Again, that represented dramatic slowdown in price gains from the third quarter’s 6 percent increase from the second quarter.

San Francisco-based First Republic Bank produces the quarterly Prestige Home Index with Core-Logic Case-Shiller, a provider of automated property valuation services to the financial services industry. First Republic has tracked luxury homes since the bank’s founding in 1985.

The fourth quarter figures and analysis may provide a snapshot of rising luxury home values as the market was turning down.

“Luxury home prices again posted double-digit gains on a year-over-year basis,” said Katherine August-deWilde, president and chief operating officer of First Republic Bank. (NYSE: FRC) “Market conditions in California’s luxury communities continue to be very strong. Limited inventory, robust demand and low interest rates are driving prices higher.”

In Marin County, higher-priced homes saw gains.

“Going into the end of the year, homes $4 million and above finally picked up,” said Pat Montag of Sotheby’s International Realty in Mill Valley. “Prices are getting close to the peak of the market in 2007. We have very little inventory and that’s constraining the market.”

San Francisco also participated in the strong housing market last year.

“Prices continue to rise because there is so little inventory and so much demand,” said Mary Lou Castellanos of Sotheby’s International in San Francisco. “There are a lot of people who want to buy. The homes that do come to market generate multiple offers and offers over the asking.”

And new tech wealth is spurring luxury home buying on the Peninsula.

“From Palo Alto to Atherton, we are seeing offers 20 percent to 40 percent over the asking price,” said Pat Kalish of Alain Pinel Real Estate in Palo Alto. “It’s tech money as well as foreign buyers. From all indications, prices will keep increasing because the inventory is so low. If you’re a homeowner, this is one of the best times ever to sell.”

Hope springs eternal among those selling real estate.

Southern California also enjoyed a strong market as the stock market clocked in with one of its best years ever in 2013.

“The demand is incredible. It is much stronger than it was in 2006 at the height of the market. Homes that were selling at $10 million in 2005 and 2006 are now $20 million and $25 million. It’s astounding,” said David Mossler of Tele Properties in Beverly Hills.

Further south in Orange County Ron Miller of HOM Sotheby’s in Newport Beach told First Republic Bank that homes at $4 million are selling above year-earlier comps.

“The attractive properties are generating multiple offers,” Miller said. “I see some buyer resistance now and expect the market to level off.”

Even further south in the San Diego area, more signs of a cooling market are evident.

“We’re seeing multiple offers and offers over the asking for properly priced homes up to $3 million,” said Linda Sansone of Willis Allen in Rancho Santa Fe. “From $3 million to $5 million, the market is solid, prices are appreciating and supply is tight. For homes $5 million and above, there is plenty of supply, and prices are rising modestly.”

Sue De Legge of Sue De Legge Associates, also in Rancho Santa Fe, said home-price appreciation was driving the market.

“Rising prices are motivating more sellers to list their homes,” she said. “We expect more inventory to be brought to market in coming months.”

And as a reminder for those who missed Econ 101, rising supply is likely to put downward pressure on prices. One thing is certain: this spring’s home-selling season will be well worth watching.

Mark Calvey covers banking and finance for the San Francisco Business Times.

Article source: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2014/02/home-prices-san-francisco-real-estate.html?page=all

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

While inventories improved slightly in August on a national basis, up 0.4 percent month-to-month, they are still down 6.3 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

While home sales were higher in August, the Realtors said it was, “the last hurrah,” as several indicators showed buyer traffic slowed dramatically at the end of the summer.

“The sharpest falloff in the HousingPulse Homebuyer Traffic Indexes was seen among current homeowners, the largest group of home purchasers in this year’s housing market. The first-time homebuyer group also saw a decline in its traffic index,” according to a new report from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

The fall and winter months are traditionally the slowest in the housing business, and weaker demand will affect prices. Sales of newly built homes have not exactly been gangbusters, and new orders at both Lennar and KB Home were weaker than expected. Make no mistake, underlying demand exists, it’s just a question of when it emerges in force.

So far, even weak demand has pushed prices higher, again, due to historically low supply.

(Read more: Real estate’s new frontier: Crowdfunding)

“Construction of single-family homes has been depressed since late 2007, while the U.S. population has increased by more than 12 million over that time,” said economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight. “Since underlying demand is, by our estimate, running at a rate nearly twice that of housing completions, the shortages are likely to get larger before getting smaller.”

This means that home-price gains, as measured by the Case-Shiller indexes, are likely to remain strong for some time, even if they retreat some from the current pace.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101058777

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

“We can thank investors for that limited inventory, of course, as many entry-level buyers are now going to have no choice but to rent,” said Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group.

Even as investors move out, cash is still king in this market. Thirty-one percent of sales were all-cash. That share is usually below 10 percent. June’s home sales were largely unaffected by the recent rise in mortgage rates, as contracts for those sales were signed in April and May.

The Realtors’ group expects higher rates to slow sales in the coming months, and if investors, who drove the market for so long, continue to exit, those sales could be even slower.

(Read more: Go green? Get a bigger mortgage)

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions? Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100903814

Last month, California’s median home price experienced its biggest gain in more than 33 years, according to the California Association of Realtors. But it didn’t put off wealthy Chinese who have been pouring money into Golden State real estate.

The San Francisco Bay Area is seeing a tremendous surge in real estate investment from China. According to the San Francisco-based Asia Society, California is on track this year to receive record investments in both commercial and residential real estate.

The society recently held a panel discussion on “Courting the Chinese Buyer: The New California Real Estate Boom”. The experts there agreed that Chinese investment in Bay area properties would continue to be strong.

Yat-Pang Au, founder and CEO of Veritas Investments Inc, one of the largest owners and operators of apartments in San Francisco, said that one of the reasons it made sense to invest in San Francisco was that it is a true cosmopolitan city recognized throughout the world, but still one of the cheapest. Au called it “a natural fit” for a Chinese investor.

“We have good schools, a safe environment, clean air,” Au said. “It is a relatively safe investment in real estate.”

According to the National Association of Realtors, buyers from China are now the second-largest group of foreign investors in US residential real estate (after Canadians), spending $9 billion in the year ending March 2012.

While Chinese individual investors are focusing on residential real estate, Chinese enterprises are making an even harder push into the commercial market.

Chinese developer Zarsion Holdings Group inked a deal to build a $1.5 billion waterfront development in Oakland, California, during Governor Brown’s trade mission to China in April. There is also a joint venture underway between China Vanke Co Ltd and US firm Tishman Speyer Properties to develop luxury apartments in San Francisco.

Wilson Chen, president of Portland-based American Pacific International Capital, thinks that China’s slowing economy will not slow down Chinese investment overseas; on the contrary, he believes there will be more people looking to diversify their portfolios with investments outside of China.

Chen said that inflation in China was huge and in the international currency market, the US dollar was weak against the Chinese yuan. “When Chinese investors come to the US to invest, they pretty much grab the money off the printing machine and come over here to buy cheaper stuff,” he said.

Chinese investment in the US hit an all-time record in 2012 of $6.5 billion and will likely surpass that level in 2013, according to the research firm Rhodium Group.

Leonard Rosenberg, head of the Palo Alto-based law firm Mayer Brown, said investment growth in China goes beyond market forces.

“I think there are policies in place to encourage Chinese investment, particularly the state enterprises,” Rosenberg said, noting that Chinese insurance laws were modified to allow state-owned insurance companies to invest in real property assets.

Rosenberg also mentioned a recent Bloomberg report about China’s official overseer of foreign-currency reserves talking about potentially investing in US real estate.

“It makes sense that they will want to move into real estate in general,” he said. “US real estate is very transparent and a low barrier entry sort of industry.”

The experts suggest being aware of the cultural gap between US and Chinese investors. Because the Chinese are usually thinking differently in terms of what their US partner can offer.

“There are some gaps that cannot be bridged,” Chen said, “primarily on the financial structure side, but also some on the legal structure side that they don’t understand.”

As an example he mentioned that China has no property tax, so when Chinese people come to the US to buy property, they say, Ok, that’s cheap, then buy it, without realizing what they’re getting into.

Yuwei12@chinadailyusa.com

(China Daily USA 06/21/2013 page10)

Article source: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2013-06/21/content_16643650.htm

Last month, California’s median home price experienced its biggest gain in more than 33 years, according to the California Association of Realtors. But it didn’t put off wealthy Chinese who have been pouring money into Golden State real estate.

The San Francisco Bay Area is seeing a tremendous surge in real estate investment from China. According to the San Francisco-based Asia Society, California is on track this year to receive record investments in both commercial and residential real estate.

The society recently held a panel discussion on “Courting the Chinese Buyer: The New California Real Estate Boom”. The experts there agreed that Chinese investment in Bay area properties would continue to be strong.

Yat-Pang Au, founder and CEO of Veritas Investments Inc, one of the largest owners and operators of apartments in San Francisco, said that one of the reasons it made sense to invest in San Francisco was that it is a true cosmopolitan city recognized throughout the world, but still one of the cheapest. Au called it “a natural fit” for a Chinese investor.

“We have good schools, a safe environment, clean air,” Au said. “It is a relatively safe investment in real estate.”

According to the National Association of Realtors, buyers from China are now the second-largest group of foreign investors in US residential real estate (after Canadians), spending $9 billion in the year ending March 2012.

While Chinese individual investors are focusing on residential real estate, Chinese enterprises are making an even harder push into the commercial market.

Chinese developer Zarsion Holdings Group inked a deal to build a $1.5 billion waterfront development in Oakland, California, during Governor Brown’s trade mission to China in April. There is also a joint venture underway between China Vanke Co Ltd and US firm Tishman Speyer Properties to develop luxury apartments in San Francisco.

Wilson Chen, president of Portland-based American Pacific International Capital, thinks that China’s slowing economy will not slow down Chinese investment overseas; on the contrary, he believes there will be more people looking to diversify their portfolios with investments outside of China.

Chen said that inflation in China was huge and in the international currency market, the US dollar was weak against the Chinese yuan. “When Chinese investors come to the US to invest, they pretty much grab the money off the printing machine and come over here to buy cheaper stuff,” he said.

Chinese investment in the US hit an all-time record in 2012 of $6.5 billion and will likely surpass that level in 2013, according to the research firm Rhodium Group.

Leonard Rosenberg, head of the Palo Alto-based law firm Mayer Brown, said investment growth in China goes beyond market forces.

“I think there are policies in place to encourage Chinese investment, particularly the state enterprises,” Rosenberg said, noting that Chinese insurance laws were modified to allow state-owned insurance companies to invest in real property assets.

Rosenberg also mentioned a recent Bloomberg report about China’s official overseer of foreign-currency reserves talking about potentially investing in US real estate.

“It makes sense that they will want to move into real estate in general,” he said. “US real estate is very transparent and a low barrier entry sort of industry.”

The experts suggest being aware of the cultural gap between US and Chinese investors. Because the Chinese are usually thinking differently in terms of what their US partner can offer.

“There are some gaps that cannot be bridged,” Chen said, “primarily on the financial structure side, but also some on the legal structure side that they don’t understand.”

As an example he mentioned that China has no property tax, so when Chinese people come to the US to buy property, they say, Ok, that’s cheap, then buy it, without realizing what they’re getting into.

Yuwei12@chinadailyusa.com

(China Daily USA 06/21/2013 page10)

Article source: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2013-06/21/content_16643650.htm

“People who weren’t sure about whether they were going to buy a house or not are coming back in, and that’s especially true of the affluent buyers,” said Watters. “I know at Chase at least we’ve also put a lot of emphasis on making sure we’re doing what’s best for those affluent buyers, including adding more bankers and working with our chase private client customers to really focus on opportunities in the jumbo space.”

(Read More: Rising Rates Turn Investors From REITs)

Watters admited that investors are still slow to return, as the private label market tries to figure out what securitization standards should be. The complete lack of standards during the housing boom, when securities were issued with bits and pieces of loans and wide ranges of risk, led to the downfall of both the mortgage and the housing markets.

“We are not slicing and dicing any loans. We’re selling loans as whole loan products,” assured Watters. “These are well-underwritten loans, great documentation, great borrowers with strong fico scores, large down payments, so these are great credit products, great investment for people who are looking to get additional yield.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100802833

All this could have a significant impact on the housing recovery.

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“If the investors gets sidelined—along with first-time buyers who are already sidelined—this housing market falls apart quickly,” says Mark Hanson, a California-based housing and mortgage analyst. Hanson points to still-high levels of negative equity, which has kept many homeowners stuck in place.

Connecticut-based Carrington Mortgage Holdings, a hedge fund that had been buying distressed homes, recently stopped.

“We think the market is a little bit too frothy,” said Carrington’s Rick Sharga in an interview last month. Home prices are now up 12 percent from a year ago nationally, according to CoreLogic, but have risen far more greatly in formerly distressed markets where investors originally focused their purchases.

“The general consensus right now is that the bargains are drying up when it comes to buying foreclosed properties,” adds Sharga.

(Read More: Rising Rates Turn Investors From REITs)

That is largely due to a lack of distressed homes for sale. The number of foreclosure sales in the first quarter of this year fell 22 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, a real estate website. The number of short sales, when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage, also fell, as rising prices provided less incentive for banks to agree to such deals. Some claim banks are actually holding onto repossessed homes, waiting for prices to rise higher.

Investors accounted for 19 percent of home sales in April, according to the National Association of Realtors, down from 24 percent in all of 2012. Investors include individual buyers as well as large hedge funds, but the hedge funds have been getting much of the attention, credited with juicing prices in the hardest hit housing markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas. Their so-called REO-to-Rent strategy (Real Estate Owned-to-Rent) has evolved into a new asset class, with two of the companies that engage in the practice going public this year as real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100799067

(Read More: Home Price Gains Go to Double Digits)

First-time home buyers will be hit hardest by rising rates, just as they were beginning to trickle back into the market. They made up just 29 percent of buyers in April, according to the National Association of Realtors, the lowest level in two years. Historically, they usually account for about 40 percent of the market.

The 30-year fixed mortgage hit a record low rate of 3.47 percent in December of last year. Even though it is still well below historical norms, this small rise is already taking its toll.

“In my world it’s clearly slowing the market and pricing. Right now I have properties that are well-priced yet sitting on the market unsold,” said David Fogg, a real estate agent in Burbank, CA. “Should rates continue to rise, values will likely soften.”

(Read More: Borrowers Becoming Accidental Landlords)

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100772471

The impact of Super Storm Sandy is less apparent further south on Hilton Head Island in South Carolina.

“It’s a great time to buy, it’s a bad time to sell is what I tell people,” said James Wedgeworth, who has been selling real estate on the island for over a decade. “There is a light at the end of the tunnel.”The rental market on Hilton Head, which largely caters to the golfing set, has remained strong throughout the recession, likely because so few people wanted to buy. Confidence is slowly returning here, but prices are not.

“It hasn’t really started going up, but at least it’s not going down. We had seven straight years of prices going down. That’s no fun,” added Wedgeworth.

(Read More: Financing a Vacation Home)

Vacation home sales rose 10 percent nationally in 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors, but as with all things real estate, location is key. Prices are just stabilizing in South Carolina, but in the tiny towns of eastern Long Island, New York, better known as the Hamptons, home prices are roaring back and rentals are fully booked for the season.

“We’ve seen bidding wars in the four to five million dollar range as well as in the overall market,” said Laura Nigro, a real estate broker in Bridgehampton. “It’s so much better than when the 2008, 2009 economy shrank and people were very much afraid to invest in anything.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100751056

Those are just a few, but suffice it to say prices are rising based on higher demand and abnormally low supply. Supply, ironically, is low because so far regular home sellers who don’t have to move would rather not sell into a market that is just beginning to recovery.

Also, many homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages, and therefore they would have to pay into their current homes in addition to paying for a new one.

(Read More: Old Ills Still Hit Big Banks)

But why are the price jumps so high? Some say it’s all relative.

“Market observers shouldn’t be fooled by the large headline numbers,” warned Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, a data provider. “Last year was a turning point for the market where the year started with prices at virtually their lowest point and saw a very strong correction through the year. Much of the gains we see right now in the yearly trends are a reflection of the market lows in 2012, rather than a function of recent short-term momentum.”

Villacorta expects these big gains to subside as the market stabilizes and more supply comes up for sale. He sees the recovery of housing itself, not some broader economic resurgence, as housing’s main driver.

“Moderate improvements in the broader economic landscape likely haven’t offered potential homebuyers strong reason to jump back in at the start of the season. We do expect to see more buyers and sellers ready to take action over the next several months as rising prices continue to free up some underwater mortgages,” he offered.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100715894