homesmillbrae.com » Moving Average

Home builders: Best in years and getting better

Fri, 16 Aug 2013 17:23:23 +0000

All but one region saw a gain in its three-month moving average on the NAHB index in August. The Midwest and West each posted six-point increases, to 60 and 57, respectively, while the South posted a four-point gain to 54 and the Northeast held unchanged at 39.

Even though home building is on the rise, home builder stocks have gotten creamed over the last 3 months, including PulteGroup, KB Home and DR Horton.

(Read more: He’s not buying a house—why is Obama on Zillow?)

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100964905

Depression Begone! Home Prices Set Record in April

Wed, 26 Jun 2013 14:07:30 +0000

(Read More: Home Builders Slow New Construction, Raise Prices)

Concerns about rising mortgage rates, which spiked in to the mid-4 percent range in just the past week, have dampened expectations for home price gains this summer. Analysts also worry that prices are rising too fast, far faster than income growth, and will soon price too many potential buyers out of the housing market.

“Today’s Case-Shiller numbers may reflect where the housing market has been in some of the frothier metros, but they are not indicative of where it’s headed,” said Zillow’s chief economist, Stan Humphries. “The housing market worm has turned over the past few weeks—inventory levels are beginning to show signs of easing, and mortgage interest rates are creeping up. Going forward, both of these factors will help mitigate extreme price spikes caused by very strong housing demand and very low housing supply.”

This latest report only tracks prices on a three-month moving average through the end of April, well before mortgage rates began their climb. Still, Blitzer contends that rising rates will not slow price gains.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100839986

Bay Area Housing Prices Take Big Jump

Tue, 18 Jun 2013 07:43:22 +0000

U.S. home prices jumped 10.9 percent in March compared with a year ago, the most since April 2006.

A growing number of buyers are bidding on a tight supply of homes, driving prices higher and helping the housing market recover. The Standard Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday also showed that all 20 cities measured by the report posted year-over-year gains for the third straight month. And prices rose in 15 cities in March from February. That’s up from only 11 in the previous month.

The monthly figures aren’t seasonally adjusted and may reflect the beginning of the spring buying season.

Prices rose in Phoenix by 22.5 percent over the past 12 months, the biggest gain among cities. It was followed by San Francisco (22.2 percent) and Las Vegas (20.6 percent). New York City had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.6 percent, followed by Cleveland at 4.8 percent.

“Rising home prices may begin to alleviate a lack of housing inventory … by encouraging more homeowners to put their properties on the market,” said Maninder Sibia, an economist with Economic Advisory Service, in a note to clients.

“The housing market is clearly improving.” The index covers roughly half of U.S. homes. It measures prices compared with those in January 2000 and creates a three-month moving average. The March figures are the latest available.

The U.S. housing market is steadily recovering, buoyed by solid job gains and near-record low mortgage rates.

Sales of new homes rose in April to nearly a five-year high. And sales of previously occupied homes ticked up in April to the highest level in three and a half years. Despite the gains, a limited number of homeowners are putting their houses on the market. That’s helped lift home prices. And it’s made builders more willing to ramp up construction. Applications for building permits rose in April to the highest level in nearly five years.

The supply of available homes jumped in April, but was still 14 percent below its level a year earlier. Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow, a real estate data provider, said that the increase in the Case-Shiller index has been skewed higher by cities such as Phoenix and San Francisco.

Fewer homes are available in those areas because many homeowners still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

That makes it difficult to sell. Still, even excluding those markets, home prices are rising steadily nationwide, Humphries said. The increases are “certainly confirmation that the housing market is experiencing a brisk recovery,” he added.

The housing recovery is creating more construction jobs and bolstering the economy in other ways. Higher home prices make homeowners feel wealthier and encourages them to spend more.

Rising prices also encourage more would-be buyers to purchase homes, before prices rise further.

They also enable more homeowners to sell homes, by reducing the number of people who owe more on their mortgages than the homes are worth. Prices have been increasing steadily since last summer.

Still, they are about 29 percent below the peak reached in July 2006. Banks have raised their credit standards since the housing bubble burst and are demanding larger down payments. That’s made it particularly hard for potential first-time buyers to get a mortgage.

Copyright Associated Press

Article source: http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Housing-Prices-Take-Big-Jump-209268641.html

Home Builder Confidence Soars

Tue, 18 Jun 2013 07:43:20 +0000

Home builders have been hampered recently, due to lack of labor, land and supplies. As demand finally comes back to the housing market, many builders have had trouble meeting it; others have slowed production intentionally to take advantage of rising prices. Builder confidence has been rising pretty steadily throughout the past year, but until now had not passed into the positive.

(Read More: As Prices Rise, Banks Repossess More Homes)

All three components of the NAHB index were up substantially, but the index measuring buyer traffic, while up seven points, was still in negative territory at 40. The index gauging current sales conditions rose eight points to 56, and expectations for future sales rose nine points to 61.

Sentiment was also not consistent nationwide. Builders moved further into the positive in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, but confidence slipped in the West, according to a three-month moving average. The number of listings in the West has actually been rising lately, as banks speed up the foreclosure process and release more repossessed homes onto the market. Prices have also been jumping dramatically in markets such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and much of California, slowing sales of existing homes.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100820613

Home prices increased at a six-year high late in 2012, SF had second highest …

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 09:06:01 +0000

WASHINGTON — U.S. home prices accelerated in November compared with a year ago, pushed higher by rising sales and a tighter supply of available homes.

The Standard Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 5.5 percent in November compared with the same month a year ago. That’s the largest year-over-year gain in six years.

All but one of the cities in the index posted annual gains. The largest gain was in Phoenix, where prices jumped nearly 23 percent. It was followed by San Francisco, where prices rose 12.7 percent, and Detroit, where they increased 11.9 percent. The index does not cover the San Jose metro area. The real estate information company DataQuick, using a different way of measuring

price trends, shows the median price for existing single family homes there increasing 20.6 percent in December.

New York was the only city to report a drop from a year ago.

Prices also rose in 10 of the cities measured by the index in November from October. That’s up from seven in October from September. The biggest monthly gains were in San Francisco, Phoenix and Minneapolis.

Monthly prices are not seasonally adjusted and frequently decline over the winter. The 20-city index dipped in November from the previous month.

Steady price increases should help fuel the housing recovery. They encourage more people to buy before prices rise further. Higher prices also build homeowners’ wealth, which can spur more spending

and economic growth.

The data “show a broad-based recovery in housing activity and prices across the country,” said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays Capital. “We expect this housing recovery to continue in the coming years.”

The SP/Case-Shiller index covers roughly half of U.S. homes. It measures prices compared with those in January 2000 and creates a three-month moving average. The November figures are the latest available.

The index began to show annual gains in June and have been larger each month since. Prior to that, the index had fallen for 20 straight months.

Despite the increases, prices nationwide are still about 30 percent below the peak they reached at the height of the housing bubble in the summer of 2006. They are now at the same level as in the fall of 2003.

Purchases of previously occupied homes rose last year to their highest level in five years. The National Association of Realtors forecasts that sales will rise 9 percent this year. Independent economists have similar forecasts.

Sales of new homes also rose in 2012, although they remain near depressed levels.

Stable job gains and record-low mortgage rates have encouraged more people to buy homes. And the limited inventory of homes for sale has made builders more confident to step up construction. The number of previously occupied homes has fallen to an 11-year low.

Millions of homeowners still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, making it difficult for them to sell. That’s one reason the supply of homes is so tight. But higher home values are lowering the number of those “under water” and should encourage more homeowners to put their homes on the market.

More people are also moving out on their own after living with friends and relatives in the recession. That’s driving a big gain in apartment construction and also pushing up rents. Higher rents are encouraging investors to buy homes and rent them.

The tighter supply of homes pushed builders in December to start work on the most homes in 4 ½ years. Last year was the best year for residential construction 2008, just after the recession started.

Home builders are also benefiting from the rebound. D.R. Horton Inc. said Tuesday that its profit in the three months ended in December more than doubled and orders jumped 39 percent.

“D.R. Horton is the best positioned it has been in its 35-year history,” chief executive Donald Horton said. “We are looking forward to the spring selling season with optimism.”

Article source: http://www.insidebayarea.com/real-estate/ci_22472420/home-prices-increased-at-six-year-high-late

Home Prices Rise, but Analysts See Pressure Ahead

Sat, 27 Oct 2012 13:39:22 +0000

While sales of existing homes are still on a bumpy road to recovery, home prices are seeing steady gains.

Nationally, prices rose 2.6 percent in August, according to a repeat sales index from Lender Processing Services. Prices are up an even stronger 4.6 percent from the beginning of 2012. Much of the gains are due to big drops in sales and volumes of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales).

The share of distressed properties in total home sales fell to a record low of 38.6 percent in September according to an index from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance. That is based on a three-month moving average. The “Housing Pulse” index is down 10 percentage points from the near-record-high 48.7 percent recorded in February of this year.

“The precipitous drop in the share of distressed properties in the housing market is largely attributable to fewer foreclosed properties or real estate owned (REO) being put up for sale by banks,” according to the report. “HousingPulse respondents reported in October that major banks appear to be keeping many REO properties off the market this year. But they also suggest banks may be looking to unload significant amounts of REO next year — a move that could put downward pressure on home prices.”

The impact the the dwindling number of foreclosed properties is having on home prices is most obvious in markets like Phoenix, where distressed sales made up the bulk of the market for the last few years. Prices there are up 17 percent from a year ago, although still down 41 percent from their peak in 2006, according to LPS.

(Read More: Cities With the Most Affordable Homes.)

Las Vegas home prices are up nearly 9 percent year-over-year, and many California metro markets are seeing similar gains. The trouble, again, is that sales are dropping off precipitously in those markets, due to a lack of supply. Investors had been fueling distressed home sales, but are now having a smaller impact because there is so little available. Prices always lag sales, and there is no reason to believe that will change.

Further weighing on future home price gains are coming changes in the mortgage market, which we noted on Wednesday. (Read More: Home Builders Need Mortgage Bankers to Keep Recovery Alive.)

Now another study is making dramatic claims about the impact of those new regulations. The authors, from the center-to-right-leaning American Action Forum think tank, claim that lending standards will get tighter and borrowing will get more expensive:

“We find using conservative economic assumptions that the bottom line effects of proposed Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations may include up to 20 percent fewer loans, resulting in 600,000 fewer home sales. In turn, the resulting tightened lending and reduced sales are estimated to cost up to 1,010,000 housing starts, 3.9 million fewer jobs, and a loss of 1.1 percentage points from GDP growth over the next three years.”

Others have already expressed concern over where the mortgage market is heading in 2013, as thousands of mortgage bankers met at an annual convention in Chicago this week.

“We’ve got some very major regulatory issues that need to be resolved and clear in people’s minds before you get a really vibrant rebound in the market,” said Bradley Shuster, President and CEO of National Mortgage Insurance.

Home prices and credit cost/availability go hand in hand. Record low mortgage rates are a stimulus, but they have now been around for so long that even a slight rise will have a direct effect on home buying. Potential buyers already complain of too-tight standards and too-high down payments. If those increase as well, home prices could easily take a turn back down.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick

Click on ticker to follow real estate news:

US Home Builders

Toll Brothers
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DR Horton
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Hovnanian Enterprises
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PulteGroup
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Ryland Group
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Lennar Corp
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Beazer Homes USA
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Meritage Homes
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KB Home
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Questions? Comments?

Follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49569786?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

US Housing Recovery Hurt by Unrest in the Middle East

Wed, 02 Mar 2011 18:55:27 +0000

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You probably don’t think of unrest in the far away Middle East as having anything to do with the housing market here in the U.S. You should.

The weekly mortgage applications say it all.

Despite the rate on the 30-year fixed falling below the psychologically important 5 percent line, mortgage applications to purchase a new home and to refinance both dropped; yes, there was a holiday involved, but the four week moving average is also down, despite mortgage rates coming off their Egypt-unrest surge.

Remember, rates track yields on the 10-year Treasury, which have been volatile due to the unrest abroad, but not THAT volatile: Less than half a percentage point.

Rates are one thing, but uncertainty weighs heavier on potential buyers, and rising oil prices may outweigh both.

“It’s the spring season. This is where new home buyers come out looking to buy a home,” says FBR’s Paul Miller. “If gas prices have gone up significantly, it’s going to cut into the foot traffic, and we’re really concerned with what that’s going to do to housing market.”

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41868388?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS