“In the short run, over the next half decade to decade, it’s going to be extremely unlikely, virtually impossible for that to happen because all the programs that created the bubble are outlawed now,” said David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “What really concerns me is how are people going to behave outside the QM protection.”

(Read more: Why shut down Fannie and Freddie now?)

Lenders can still operate outside the QM rules but don’t get the same legal protections in cases of default, and they cannot sell the loans to Fannie and Freddie. They need to hold on to the risk. Still, the non-QM market is growing even before the QM rules take effect in January.

The leader of this movement is Date himself. He formed a firm, Fenway Summer, to launch the new mortgage products.

“I think the best credit models, the ones that really pay for themselves in terms of risk-adjusted returns over time, are the ones where you make great credit decisions and then you actually bear the risk of those decisions working out well or working out poorly,” said Date, adding that he is optimistic about this new market.

Loans outside QM will be more costly but will offer investors greater returns. They will still have to comply with ability-to-repay but not the QM standards. Therefore, borrowers who may have very large assets but little to no income could qualify. Interest-only, adjustable-rate mortgages would also fall into this category.

“I am quite confident that a senior funding market will develop for non-QM loans—I have no doubt about that at all,” Date said. “It is simply too big of a market.”

Wells Fargo will also operate outside QM for some loans.

“When you look at the entire profile of the borrower, we can be comfortable they have the ability to repay even though their income by itself may not fall into the standard dictated by the qualified mortgage,” said Codel, who added that non-QM loans may be an even safer product because lenders will hold more risk and be subject to legal action in the case of a loan failure.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

Still, the non-QM market does open the doors for lenders seeking higher returns through higher risk, which is how much of the recent trouble began, at least in the mortgage-backed securities trading space. Regulations for investors in loans are still being finalized, but recent proposals follow the QM standards.

“That is where I think drawing the boundaries around the rules can be a good thing but it can also set up bad behaviors outside those boundaries, and we’re going to see those kinds of institutions being created, I’m confident of it,” said Stevens.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101036630

(Read more: Banks hit the brakes on mortgage operations)

The summer has not proved much better for the builders. Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home dropped 14 percent from July, according to a new report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Still, demand is there, and after building next to nothing during the housing crash, U.S. builders are now faced with renewing the nation’s housing stock. That, Pulte executives say, is why innovation is so important.

“When I was at my first conference, I met someone and referenced that I was doing market research,” said Ian Wild, Pulte’s director of market research. “The fellow said, ‘Let me tell you how I do market research. I get in my car and I drive down the road to the competition and I say what’s selling and why?’ And as a result of that, the innovation in the home building industry is, well, there’s very little.”

So on a hot September morning, with the roar of O’Hare’s traffic overhead, small groups of homeowners wind their way through the rows of homes in frames of back doors and out frames of front doors, gripping their clipboards and checklists, and eyeing every detail and every measure of space.

“It’s much easier than looking at a blueprint, where you keep turning it around trying to understand which way the door swings. Will this be this way?” asked Chicago-area homeowner Sasha Zingerman, motioning. “It’s much more comprehendible, and you can physically picture yourself in that space. You could see how you would orient yourself there.”

The subjects are paid to offer their opinions, and after the tours they sit down with a moderator to tell what they like, and more importantly what they do not like.

(Read more: Jobs report tempers mortgage rates)

“I like how it all flows together. It’s open, it’s airy, there’s a lot of light coming in. It seems like a happy environment,” said one woman.

Pulte gets at least five new design ideas from each of these events, which are held across the country, according to Wahl. The latest trends are full home automation (running every system in the home through a smartphone), larger mud rooms, or as Pulte calls them, Everyday Entries. Dining rooms are out, larger kids’ bathrooms are in.

“I don’t think I would ever use the formal dining room, so it would be a wasted space for a room that I don’t use often enough,” added another.

After living through the worst housing crash since the Great Depression, today’s home buyers are more skeptical and less trusting of home builders. Some blame builders for throwing up far too many houses, selling them to speculators and turning a blind eye to an overheated market that was bound to bust. They are treading back in slowly and finding higher prices.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101029507

During the next several years, as the housing market crashed and then began to eke its way back, Fannie and Freddie drew $188 billion from the Treasury. They were in turn forced to pay 10 percent stock dividends back. Then in 2012, the Treasury announced that that agreement would be replaced by a quarterly sweep of every dollar of profit that each institution earned in the future.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

The move was designed to, “help expedite the wind down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, make sure that every dollar of earnings each firm generates is used to benefit taxpayers, and support the continued flow of mortgage credit during a responsible transition to a reformed housing finance market,” went the 2012 release.

By 2012, with the housing market rebounding and newly originated loans faring better than any in history, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began turning annual profits. By 2013, those profits were growing dynamically, and the two are now nearing the amount they originally drew from the Treasury, although the payments do not go to pay back the draw. The Treasury still owns the preferred stock. The money simply goes to the government.

Now, as individual investors in Fannie and Freddie stock cry foul, launching lawsuits against the government and demanding their share, lawmakers are under increased pressure to find a fitting end for the conservatorship and the entities. The question is whether or not to put a government backstop into the market yet again.

“The construct of a government-guaranteed, mortgage-backed security is absolutely going to be needed,” said David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “You can’t have a functioning housing finance system where private capital just leaves it in the next recession. You need to have constant liquidity provided to the U.S. system, and that comes from the guaranteed mortgage-backed security.”

Confidence is key going forward, and investors are unlikely to pour money back into the mortgage market without a guarantee that in another catastrophic crash there won’t be some government backstop. One of the leading bipartisan proposals in Congress, introduced by Sens. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Mark Warner, D-Va., does create an investor and borrower-funded backstop. It will make loans slightly more costly, but the government guarantee on mortgage-backed securities would be there.

“The biggest problem is that Congress wants supercheap mortgages and they want to eliminate taxpayer risk for the housing market, and that’s just a holy grail to get,” said Guggenheim’s Seiberg. “Anything less than 100 percent government backstop is going to raise questions about whether fixed income investors are really going to be there to pick up the slack and to buy those securities.”

Federal regulators are already trying to shrink the portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, even as Congress still debates their future. They have layered on heavy fees to lenders, which have actually made conforming loans (those backed by Fannie and Freddie) more costly than jumbo loans funded by banks. There is also a move to lower the loan limits on conforming loans, which would push banks and investors to take on more of the markets.

(Read more: Jobs report tempers mortgage rates)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101018586

During the next several years, as the housing market crashed and then began to eke its way back, Fannie and Freddie drew $188 billion from the Treasury. They were in turn forced to pay 10 percent stock dividends back. Then in 2012, the Treasury announced that that agreement would be replaced by a quarterly sweep of every dollar of profit that each institution earned in the future.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

The move was designed to, “help expedite the wind down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, make sure that every dollar of earnings each firm generates is used to benefit taxpayers, and support the continued flow of mortgage credit during a responsible transition to a reformed housing finance market,” went the 2012 release.

By 2012, with the housing market rebounding and newly originated loans faring better than any in history, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began turning annual profits. By 2013, those profits were growing dynamically, and the two are now nearing the amount they originally drew from the Treasury, although the payments do not go to pay back the draw. The Treasury still owns the preferred stock. The money simply goes to the government.

Now, as individual investors in Fannie and Freddie stock cry foul, launching lawsuits against the government and demanding their share, lawmakers are under increased pressure to find a fitting end for the conservatorship and the entities. The question is whether or not to put a government backstop into the market yet again.

“The construct of a government-guaranteed, mortgage-backed security is absolutely going to be needed,” said David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “You can’t have a functioning housing finance system where private capital just leaves it in the next recession. You need to have constant liquidity provided to the U.S. system, and that comes from the guaranteed mortgage-backed security.”

Confidence is key going forward, and investors are unlikely to pour money back into the mortgage market without a guarantee that in another catastrophic crash there won’t be some government backstop. One of the leading bipartisan proposals in Congress, introduced by Sens. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Mark Warner, D-Va., does create an investor and borrower-funded backstop. It will make loans slightly more costly, but the government guarantee on mortgage-backed securities would be there.

“The biggest problem is that Congress wants supercheap mortgages and they want to eliminate taxpayer risk for the housing market, and that’s just a holy grail to get,” said Guggenheim’s Seiberg. “Anything less than 100 percent government backstop is going to raise questions about whether fixed income investors are really going to be there to pick up the slack and to buy those securities.”

Federal regulators are already trying to shrink the portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, even as Congress still debates their future. They have layered on heavy fees to lenders, which have actually made conforming loans (those backed by Fannie and Freddie) more costly than jumbo loans funded by banks. There is also a move to lower the loan limits on conforming loans, which would push banks and investors to take on more of the markets.

(Read more: Jobs report tempers mortgage rates)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101018586

Mortgage rates are about a full percentage point higher today than they were at the beginning of March. The average rate on the 30-year fixed hit 4.80 percent by the middle of last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That is the highest since April 2011.

Rates have been trending higher on expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its investments in mortgage-backed securities.

Home prices are also trending higher in part due to the fact that there are fewer distressed properties for sale. Excluding distressed sales, prices were up 11.4 percent year over year. Distressed properties have seen big price jumps in the past year, as investors fight to get the remaining bargains.

Markets hit hardest by the housing crash have seen some of the biggest price gains: Nevada home prices were up 27 percent annually in July, California up 23 percent and Arizona up 17 percent. Completed foreclosures nationally were down 25 percent in July from a year ago, according to CoreLogic.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

Prices are also getting a boost from the sheer lack of properties for sale. Inventories are way down in local markets across the nation, and home builders are not ramping up production fast enough to meet new demand.

While the inventory situation is not expected to ease very much over the next year, home prices are expected to weaken slightly, as higher rates and weak income growth put a cap on just how high prices can go.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101004096

Mortgage applications had been lower for much of the summer, and refinances continue to fall, but applications to purchase a home rose 2 percent last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

This, even as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $417,000 or less increased to 4.8 percent, the highest since April 2011. They are still down 6 percent in the past month. Mortgage rates, however, have been moving lower this week on weak economic data.

Higher home prices could also be hurting potential sales, as very low inventories continue to cause bidding wars from coast to coast. Inventories of existing homes are down significantly in most of the nation’s major housing markets.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

San Francisco, for example is seeing some of the highest home price appreciation, as listings were down 29 percent in July year over year, according to the California Association of Realtors.

“More homes clearly need to be built in the West to relieve price pressure, or the region could soon face pronounced affordability problems,” Yun said.

Single family housing starts were down 2.2 percent in July month to month, as home builders still struggle to find finished lots and skilled labor. Underlying demand is running nearly twice the rate of housing completions, according to IHS Global Insight. Some home builders admit they are slowing production in order to gain pricing power.

(Read more: Home prices across the US defy gravity)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100993579

(Read more: What you need to know if Fannie and Freddie go)

“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track from its dip last month,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “These results are consistent with our own analysis of previous housing cycles, which finds that interest rates and home prices are not strongly correlated.”

(Read more: Taking your calls now: Obama sells housing agenda via Zillow)

Another survey from home builder PulteGroup found 43 percent of move-up buyers indicating they are planning to buy a new home within the next five years, with 76 percent saying they believe they can sell their current home within the next two years for enough to move up. Pulte targets the move-up buyer.

Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home rose 14 percent month to month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, but new home buyers may be less sensitive to rates, as builders can buy down mortgage rates as part of the deal.

It all prompts the question: With rates still historically low, does a 1 percentage point jump in rates really matter?

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100952350

Applications to refinance are already down nearly 60 percent from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates on the 30-year fixed rose from 3.5 percent in May to nearly 5 percent in July, settling now around 4.5 percent.

The government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program has been successful, allowing more than 2 million borrowers, some with negative home equity, to take advantage of lower rat, but only borrowers with government-backed mortgages qualify.

That has left millions of borrowers out. Obama has pushed for more refinancing in the private mortgage market and will call for it once again. Senior administration officials, however, admit that “the window is closing given interest rates coming up over the last few months.”

(Read more: Homeownership may be for the few rather than the many)

The president will also push for more community-based assistance to help first-time homebuyers get into vacant, foreclosed homes.

Phoenix perhaps is not the best backdrop for this. The recovery there was driven more by private investors in distressed homes than by any government-backed mortgage rescue. Investors bought these homes in bulk and are now renting them for profit.

These same investors, largely using all-cash, pushed first-time buyers out of the Phoenix market and continue to do so in several other markets across the nation, where lower-income buyers might have been able to take advantage of distressed homes.

Obama will offer “targeted ways to make sure first-time buyers have a fair shot competing,” an administration official said.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100940811

Applications to refinance are already down nearly 60 percent from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates on the 30-year fixed rose from 3.5 percent in May to nearly 5 percent in July, settling now around 4.5 percent.

The government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program has been successful, allowing more than 2 million borrowers, some with negative home equity, to take advantage of lower rat, but only borrowers with government-backed mortgages qualify.

That has left millions of borrowers out. Obama has pushed for more refinancing in the private mortgage market and will call for it once again. Senior administration officials, however, admit that “the window is closing given interest rates coming up over the last few months.”

(Read more: Homeownership may be for the few rather than the many)

The president will also push for more community-based assistance to help first-time homebuyers get into vacant, foreclosed homes.

Phoenix perhaps is not the best backdrop for this. The recovery there was driven more by private investors in distressed homes than by any government-backed mortgage rescue. Investors bought these homes in bulk and are now renting them for profit.

These same investors, largely using all-cash, pushed first-time buyers out of the Phoenix market and continue to do so in several other markets across the nation, where lower-income buyers might have been able to take advantage of distressed homes.

Obama will offer “targeted ways to make sure first-time buyers have a fair shot competing,” an administration official said.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100940811

It is likely no coincidence that standards are easing as rates rise and mortgage applications fall. Total mortgage applications were down 47 percent last week from a year ago. Refinances, which had been the banks bread and butter during the housing crash, are down 59 percent from a year ago. Applications to purchase a home are up just 5 percent.

“People see interest rates rise, they slow down some of that eagerness to get into the market,” said David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

Credit standards tightened dramatically over the past several years, as loose credit was largely blamed for the crash in housing. Average borrower credit scores on new loans are dramatically higher today, and lenders require larger down payments.

Even the FHA, the government mortgage insurer, which was created to help lower creditworthy borrowers, has raised its standards as well as its insurance premiums. Many lenders have overlays to their guidelines that they add on top of standard conventional guidelines. They could do that because refinances were so high, they needed to slow the volume in order to process all the loans.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100939328