All three components of the index rose in July. Current sales conditions rose five points to 60—the highest level since early 2006. The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months gained seven points to 67, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose five points to 45—marking the strongest readings for each since late 2005.

“Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Meanwhile, as the infrastructure that supplies home building returns, some previously skyrocketing building material costs have begun to soften.”Sales of newly built homes rose just over 2 percent from May to June. Single family housing starts were flat. But permits, considered a more reliable indicator, gained 1.3 percent month-to-month.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100889688

Those are just a few, but suffice it to say prices are rising based on higher demand and abnormally low supply. Supply, ironically, is low because so far regular home sellers who don’t have to move would rather not sell into a market that is just beginning to recovery.

Also, many homeowners are still underwater on their mortgages, and therefore they would have to pay into their current homes in addition to paying for a new one.

(Read More: Old Ills Still Hit Big Banks)

But why are the price jumps so high? Some say it’s all relative.

“Market observers shouldn’t be fooled by the large headline numbers,” warned Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, a data provider. “Last year was a turning point for the market where the year started with prices at virtually their lowest point and saw a very strong correction through the year. Much of the gains we see right now in the yearly trends are a reflection of the market lows in 2012, rather than a function of recent short-term momentum.”

Villacorta expects these big gains to subside as the market stabilizes and more supply comes up for sale. He sees the recovery of housing itself, not some broader economic resurgence, as housing’s main driver.

“Moderate improvements in the broader economic landscape likely haven’t offered potential homebuyers strong reason to jump back in at the start of the season. We do expect to see more buyers and sellers ready to take action over the next several months as rising prices continue to free up some underwater mortgages,” he offered.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100715894

(Read More: Is the Refi ‘Apocalypse’ Really Upon Us?)

Analysts at Clear Capital, which runs a four-month moving average price index, note that January’s numbers show, “momentum stalls.” While they blame this on seasonal slowdowns, they point to Florida as a concern.

“Florida metros, namely Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville, were all missing from the top 15 performing market list. Since September 2011, at least one of these markets made the list,” cautions Dr. Alex Villacorta, Director of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. “While this isn’t confirmation that the recovery is finished in the sunshine state, it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. These markets led the recovery in late 2011, and share some of the hallmarks for recovering markets overall.”

Florida’s housing market has been driven by distressed homes, and investors buying them at a rapid pace.

Other markets that saw the most distress during the housing crash, like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of California, have also seen so much investor demand, that prices are up by double digits from a year ago.

(Read More: New Housing Fears: Home Prices Rising Too Fast?)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100435276

(Read More: New Housing Fears: Home Prices Rising Too Fast?)

The PHLX index closed at an all-time high on July 18, 2005. It then dropped a staggering 81 percent to a trough in March of 2009. It has made a remarkable comeback in just the past year and a half but is still 34 percent below that peak in 2005. Only one component of the index, Texas-based Lennox International, a provider of climate control solutions for heating, air conditioning and refrigeration markets, is above its 2005 peak.

The overall quick pick-up in the home builders has some calling the stocks overvalued. They did, in fact, take a pause last fall, as some analysts downgraded various builders as being too hot for the fundamentals. Then come December, they began climbing again.

“Just because the stocks are overvalued doesn’t mean they are not going to go up more,” says David Goldberg, a housing analyst at UBS. “It’s a momentum play.”

(Read More: Foreclosure Fixer-Uppers Help Boost Remodeling)

Goldberg warns, however, that there is a lot of growth baked into these stock valuations for 2013, expectations that may be tough to meet. Big builders like Lennar and DR Horton continue to report growth in new orders, but in their latest reports that growth didn’t meet expectations, and the stocks responded accordingly.

“If you’re betting on a deeply sloping line that keeps going up, you get very sensitive to slowing growth rates,” notes Goldberg.

Expectations for housing starts and new home sales are both in the 20 percent range for 2013. Granted they are both coming off very small volumes historically, but those are still big expectations to meet. They very well could exceed those expectations, given the sheer optimism in the housing market today, but investors going in should still pay attention to fundamentals and to diminishing, but still-existing, headwinds.

(Read More: Shiller: Housing Malaise Could Resemble Japan’s Lost Decade)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100405275

“About two weeks ago we started getting calls, like 7 or 8 a day, and we’ve been asked to bring students to work sites,” says Linda Thomas, an employment liaison for Job Corps. “They said look just bring them with their resumes, we’ve got work, we’re pushing more contracts now. Business is doing well, building is doing extremely well in the area.”

(Read More: Pending Home Sales Surge to Five Year Highh)

This is a drastic change from just six months ago, when Thomas was still finding herself the beggar, not the chooser with home builders. Her main concern is that all this new momentum will come to a grinding halt should the nation’s economy go over the so-called “fiscal cliff.”

“A contractor, once he sets up a job, then he has to get money for that job because he has to buy the materials and so forth, so if a bank is a little scary or his lender is a little scary, a private lender, he may not have the funds to start the project, therefore we won’t have the jobs.”

(Read More: Top Destination States for Jobs)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100271485

“We’ve had very good housing affordability conditions for quite some time, but we’re seeing more impact now from steady job creation and rising consumer confidence about home buying now that home prices have clearly turned positive,” wrote Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR in a release. (Read More: Could Housing Be the Antidote to the ‘Fiscal Cliff’?)

Pending home sales are now at the highest level since March of 2007 and have risen, on a year-over-year basis, for 18 consecutive months. The activity, however, varies from region to region, and the Realtors say the Northeast, which saw a 0.1 percent drop in sales month-to-month- did see some impact from Hurricane Sandy.

Signed contracts also declined in the West, 1.1 percent in October month-to-month and are up just 0.9 percent from a year ago. The West is suffering from a lack of supply, as investors have been scouring the landscape for a decreasing inventory of distressed properties. (Read More: Yes, Housing Starts Surge, but Rentals Are the Drivers) 

Pending home sales surged in the Midwest, up 15.6 percent month-to-month and up 20 percent from a year ago. They were also higher in the south by 5.5 percent sequentially and by 17.4 percent from a year ago.

Realtors continue to warn that while this housing recovery seems to be gaining steam, changes to the mortgage interest deduction, as well as other potential hits to the economy from the so-called “fiscal cliff,” could derail the momentum. (Read More: Housing Still Precarious in Obama’s Second Term)

SECTOR WATCH: Construction General Building Materials

• The Home Depot
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• Lowe’s Companies
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• The Sherwin-Williams Company
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• E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company
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• Apogee Enterprises
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Questions?  Comments?