January 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

% change in
asking prices

# of 100 largest
metros with asking-
price increases

% change in asking
prices, excluding
foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

0.9%

Not reported

1.2%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

2.2%

79

2.9%

Year-over-year

5.9%

86

6.5%

Booming Housing Markets Have Both Price Gains and Healthy Fundamentals

Healthy housing markets are defined by strong job growth, low vacancy rates, and low foreclosure inventory. In “booming” markets such as San Francisco and Seattle, rising asking prices are supported by strong job growth and are unthreatened by future foreclosures. However, investor-fueled price increases in “rebounding” markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas are at risk from slow job growth, high vacancies, or future foreclosures. At the other end of the spectrum, healthy markets without dramatic price gains, such as Houston, will continue to hum along after avoiding the worst of the housing bubble and bust. Meanwhile, markets like Chicago continue to struggle without strong market fundamentals or big price gains.

BOOMING

Big price increases and healthier
market
fundamentals.

• San
  Francisco
• Seattle
• Denver
• San
  Jose
• Salt
  Lake City

HUMMING

Stronger market fundamentals
without dramatic price
gains.

• Houston
• Boston
• Raleigh
• Dallas

REBOUNDING

Big price increases, but weaker
market fundamentals.

• Phoenix
• Las
  Vegas
• Riverside-San
  Bernardino
• Detroit

STRUGGLING

Neither strong market
fundamentals nor big price
gains.

• Newark
• Chicago
• Albuquerque

New Construction Eases Rent Gains Nationally

With more newly-constructed multi-unit buildings coming to completion, rent gains fell behind asking price increases at the national level for the first time since the price recovery began last spring. In January, rents rose 4.1 percent Y-o-Y nationally, slowing down from 4.7 percent in July 2012. Regionally, rent gains cooled the most in San Francisco, where rents rose only 2.4 percent versus 11.5 percent in July 2012. According to the Census, construction activity in San Francisco has been well above normal for the last year, and it’s nearly all in multi-unit buildings.

Where Rent Gains Slowed Down Most

#

U.S. Metro

% Change in
Rents, Y-o-Y,
Jan 2013

% Change in
Rents, Y-o-Y,
July 2012

Percentage
Point
Difference

1

San
Francisco, CA

2.4%

11.5%

-9.1%

2

Portland,
OR-WA

4.7%

9.2%

-4.4%

3

Seattle,
WA

6.4%

10.8%

-4.4%

4

Denver,
CO

7.4%

10.3%

-2.9%

5

San
Diego, CA

2.0%

4.4%

-2.4%

PRE-APPROVED QUOTES

• “In many local markets today, dramatic price gains can mask serious
  red flags,” says Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Strong job
  growth, low vacancy rate, and low foreclosure inventory–not huge price
  gains–are signs of a healthy housing market. Without strong underlying
  market fundamentals, price rebounds might be here today, but gone
  tomorrow.”
• “Rent gains are slowing down because of more supply, not less demand,”
  explains Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Many of the multi-unit
  buildings that have been under construction over the past two years
  are now coming onto the market. Renters in San Francisco, Seattle, and
  Denver are starting to get a touch of relief, even though rising
  prices might put homeownership out of their reach.”

MULTIMEDIA

• To read the full report, see here.
• To download the full list of price and rent changes for the largest
  metro areas, see here.
• To download a graph of price changes from January 2011 to January
  2013, see here.
• To download a scatter plot graph contrasting price trends with the
  market’s health for the 100 largest metros, see here.

METHODOLOGY

To view the full methodology and 2013 release schedule, see here. The next release of the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor will be Tuesday, March 5, at 10 AM ET.

ABOUT TRULIA, INC.

Trulia (NYSE: TRLA) gives home buyers, sellers, owners, and renters the inside scoop on properties, places, and real estate professionals. Trulia has unique info on the areas people want to live that can’t be found anywhere else: users can learn about agents, neighborhoods, schools, crime, commute times, and even ask the local community questions. Real estate professionals use Trulia to connect with millions of transaction-ready buyers and sellers each month via our hyper local advertising services, social recommendations, and top-rated mobile real estate apps. Trulia is headquartered in downtown San Francisco. Trulia is a registered trademark of Trulia, Inc.

Article source: http://www.fortmilltimes.com/2013/02/05/2478046/trulia-classifies-housing-markets.html

There were just over 200,000 multi-family housing starts in 2012, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, far lower than the annual average of 340,000 over the past decade.

“We are still woefully short of what’s going to be coming in terms of demand,” says Buck Horne, a housing analyst at Raymond James. “Lennar is going where the demand is going to be. They’re going where they know they can make money.”

Lennar has positioned itself with offices in Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Orange County, San Francisco and Seattle, all markets where apartment demand is high, despite a recovery in the housing market.

“You’ve got to be very selective about your locations,” warns Miller. “We stay pretty thoughtful about where there are imbalances and too much building going on. This is not a market where you can start building any place.”

Miller is not concerned with competition from investors in the single family rental market, again focusing on location as his leg up. A lot of the foreclosed properties being absorbed by hedge funds and the like are not concentrated in the top markets targeted by Lennar. They are either inner city or third-level suburban, according to Miller.

Expanding household formations, coupled with credit and down payment-challenged new home buyers will benefit the rental sector for the foreseeable future. Many renters will eventually move to home buying, especially as their families expand. For Lennar, getting those potential buyers into a Lennar rental can only benefit the builder in the future.

“In many instances, the very first introduction to housing is through rentals and through branding and knowing consumers. Being there gives us a leg up and advantage in terms of new home sales later,” says Miller.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100407898

(Read More: Is Housing Recovering as Much as Everyone Thinks?)

Contract activity has increased on an annual basis for seventeen straight months, but is fluctuating month to month and region to region. The Realtors’ index of so-called pending home sales rose 1.4 percent month-to-month in the Northeast, fell 5.8 percent in the Midwest, rose 1 percent in the South and rose 4.3 percent in the West. The western region, which includes some of the hardest hit states of the housing crash, was the only region to see nearly flat gains from a year ago. That is do to low supplies of distressed properties.

(Read More: Is There a Housing Shortage?)

Investors have focused their attention and cash on formerly hard hit cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas and several California cities.

The National Association of Realtors estimates that completed existing home sales in 2012 will total close to 4.6 million, an increase of 9 percent from 2011. Lower housing inventories, they also predict, should push existing home prices up 6 percent this year nationally.

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