During one of my reports today on how gas prices could affect the housing recovery, one of the anchors asked me if I really believe there is a housing recovery right now.

That’s a very good question.

Yesterday, the Realtors chief economist questioned it himself.

Today a new report from Robert Shiller’s outfit, MacroMarkets, found that of 111 housing market experts and economists surveyed, nearly half foresee a double-dip in home prices happening this year, “and not a single panelist expects national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.” In December, only 15 percent projected a new post-crash low would materialize for home prices. We are now less than 1 percent away from that mark, according to the survey.

“Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate,” writes Shiller. “Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013.”

This report comes on the same day that Fannie Mae’s chief economist put out a report claiming uncertainty in Japan and trouble in Libya will directly affect housing’s recovery, specifically citing rising gas prices.

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As our week-long Spring Realty Check draws to a close here in Chicago, I’m struggling to come up with a fundamental conclusion.

The trouble of course is that the Spring season isn’t over, and the housing and mortgage markets are facing so many unknowns that any conclusion would be ridiculous.

The one thing I can surmise, after talking to real estate industry types from Boston to Seattle and in between, is that housing is not roaring back right now, and may in fact be double-dipping,

We’ve already seen home prices take a turn for the worse again, but sales seemed to be picking up in January. Unfortunately that may have been short-lived. While all real estate is local, the sales numbers are not encouraging. RE/MAX just reported February home sales down 3 percent annually.

“This is the first time in four months that the year-to-year sales difference was not better than the previous month,” according to the report. Sales were up month to month, but not by much.

New construction isn’t faring much better. The home builders reported a slight tick up in sentiment this week, but that was all based on future expectations, not current sales and traffic.

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Fewer Americans are falling behind on their mortgage payments; in fact, the fewest in two years. Mortgages just one payment past due (30 days) fell to their lowest level since just before the recession began. Is it delays in paperwork from the so called “robo-signing” (faulty paperwork) foreclosure servicing scandal? No. It’s actual fundamentals in the economy and the mortgage market. Go figure.

“As we got toward the end of 2010 we began to see another drop in weekly claims for unemployment insurance. I think that’s a key driver of the short term delinquencies,” notes Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But even more significant is the improved underwriting that began after the mortgage market crashed. “The loans that are in the system now on average are better quality than what was in there before,” says Brinkmann, who explains that loans usually go bad in the first three years of life. We’re now past the delinquency peak on loans that were underwritten during the worst, headiest phase of the housing boom in 2006 and 2007. “These new loans are less likely to go bad,” Brinkmann adds.

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I’m reporting today from a Wells Fargo two-day mortgage modification event in Portland, OR. This is the 20th such event WFC has held since September of 2009, meeting face to face with over 19,000 borrowers.

Some borrowers will walk into this convention center today and walk out with a mortgage modification, including payment reductions and possibly even a permanent reduction of mortgage principal.

That last part is particularly pertinent today, amid several reports that government regulators and state attorneys general are nearing a $20 billion settlement with the big banks that would force more loan principal reduction.

This in the wake of the so called “robo-signing” foreclosure paperwork scandal last fall. (Read more: A Primer On The Foreclosure Crisis)

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