Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

“We did have a brief window of opportunity—or now it seems brief, it actually lasted quite awhile—during the housing downturn where we had, for the first time in years something approaching reasonable affordability in the Bay Area,” said Carolyn Said, economics and real estate reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle, on KQED Public Radio’s Forum show. “First-time home buyers could find a home in the $300,000 price range. [That home wasn't] necessarily in San Francisco, but in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, and without even going way out to the outer edges of the counties.”

And homes prices in San Francisco dipped as well.

Affordability was “the highest we have seen in 25 years in 2010, early 2011,” said Rick Turley, president of Coldwell Banker for the San Francisco Bay Area.

This Golden Age of Affordability may have come to an end, at least for now. But here’s the good news: If you didn’t buy a home in the past few years, you only sort of missed the boat.

Low Interest Rates

An advantageous part of the affordability equation is still applicable in the form of historically low interest rates, according to Said. “[Rates] are still right around 3.5 percent, which is just amazing when you think of it,” she said.

“That’s a positive for people looking to buy a house. Their buying power is really more because their effective monthly payment is still going to be less, even if they’re paying a little more [for the property].”

In addition to low interest rates, there’s some other good news for would-be home buyers. The Federal Housing Administration still offers loans requiring relatively small down payments.

FHA Loans

“In order to have home ownership, you need to have a down payment, which people starting out in their careers often don’t have,” said Said. She said FHA loan are available with a “3.5 percent down payment if you have decent enough credit, and of course it helps to have a stable income.” A down payment of less than 20 percent requires the purchase of mortgage insurance, but even with that added cost, the low percentage required up front should make the initial plunge more affordable.

Micro-Markets

It’s also important to remember that the Bay Area is a diverse region, and with that diversity comes price range.

“We tend to roll things up as the ‘Bay Area’ in general, but we’re probably 30 micro-markets,” said Turley.

You may have missed your window of opportunity to own a house in San Francisco and Palo Alto proper, but there are still relatively affordable places in the Bay Area.

“More affordable neighborhoods are in Oakland, eastern Contra Costa County, and other parts of the East Bay, as well as in some San Jose neighborhoods,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia, an online real estate company.

These places might not have the cachet of the Marina district, but they still offer many of the benefits of living in the Bay Area: good weather,  a decent job market and proximity to outdoor recreation.

And even if you have to pay a bit more to enter the market, chances are you still will get a decent return on your investment.

Still Time to Make a Good Investment

“Historically, since World War II, housing has appreciated … maybe half a percent or a percent ahead of inflation,” said Said. “And that is normal for our country. If you look at [the value of your house] going up 3.5 percent a year over the next 20 years that’s still a substantial appreciation.”

True, that’s not a doubling in value that earlier California generations enjoyed. But Said said that “given what’s been happening in Silicon Valley, with the tremendous demand for housing and the tremendous amount of money that is out there for people working at high-tech companies, the housing in Silicon Valley is not following normal economic paths. It is fueled by all this tech money and from that perspective, it’s perfectly possible that your house will run way up there.”

Finding a Place in the Bay Area Was Never Easy

If you should find yourself put on the spot about why you didn’t jump while prices were lower, you can always blame a lack of credit.

“One of the reasons why people haven’t been able to take advantage of the relatively lower prices and low mortgage rates during the past couple of years is that mortgage credit has been very tight,” said Kolko. “Banks have been reluctant to lend to people who don’t have high credit scores.” The new mortgage rules announced Thursday might encourage banks to be more willing to lend to borrowers who meet income and credit guidelines, he said, so that credit could become easier for some people to obtain.

And remember, San Francisco is a world-class city. Affordability here is a relative term.

“It’s as if God wanted the Bay Area to be expensive,” said Kolko. Not only does the region’s relatively mild weather attract people, but because the region is “hemmed in by the ocean on one side, the bay and the mountains on the other, there’s very little available land to build. The Bay Area’s not like places in Texas or other parts of the South where you can spread out in all directions.”

And there are other limits on building…

“Regulations on building are particularly strict in the Bay Area,” said Kolko. “That makes it even more difficult to build new housing, both in the Bay Area and in much of California, and that adds to the high cost.”

So if you didn’t get around to buying a house when prices were low — take solace in the fact that prices weren’t ever that low.

Article source: http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2013/01/10/if-youre-in-the-market-for-a-home-in-the-bay-area-yes-you-missed-the-boat-sort-of/

The New York Times cited the Fox Theater when it included Oakland on its list of 45 place to go in 2012. Photo by Pete Hottelet/Flickr.

We’re No. 1! And No. 3! Also No. 9!

As one of the biggest metropolitan regions in the country, the Bay Area routinely appears on lists created by government officials, PR firms and others. The lists claim to measure everything from human misery to the housing market, and they’re shilled in press releases that come through our inboxes at KQED News almost every day. Often, they rank our region pretty high.

But are those lists accurate? You be the judge. Let’s take a look back at who ranked the Bay Area and its cities on their 2012 lists, and then leave a comment at the bottom of this post letting us know what you think and what lists we missed.

The year started with a pleasant surprise for a struggling Bay Area city, as in January the New York Times ranked Oakland No. 5 on its list of the 45 places to go in 2012. Oakland was the top American city on the list.

“New restaurants and bars beckon amid the grit,” the Times wrote. “Tensions have cooled since violence erupted at the recent Occupy Oakland protests, but the city’s revitalized night-life scene has continued to smolder.”

In September, Bloomberg Businessweek put San Francisco at No. 1 on its list of America’s Best Cities.

Though numbering fewer than a million people, this coastal city packs in so much—from world-class restaurants and museums to community fairs and music festivals, a large educated class, and an improving economy—that many proud San Franciscans will tell you that its finish at the top of Businessweek.com’s 2012 best cities ranking is well-earned.

Of course, lots of people would want to learn more about America’s Best City. So it makes sense that San Francisco would be the most-Googled city of 2012. And if you search Google you’ll probably learn that San Francisco has an active LGBT community and a diverse dining scene, which makes sense, considering that Travel and Leisure ranked it as both the No. 1 gay-friendly city and the top city for ethnic food. It was No. 2 when it came to diversity, cafes and tech-friendliness, according to Travel and Leisure, which also ranked it No. 3 for hipsters. (No. 3, Travel and Leisure? Did you walk around the Mission this year?)

In addition, this year San Francisco ranked No. 3 on The Daily Beast’s list of America’s greenest cities, while the research firm Clean Edge ranked it No. 2 for green tech activities.

No. 1 on that list was San Jose, which also topped Career Builder’s list of cities with the most job growth between 2010-2012 (San Francisco was No. 9.) And if you’re flying to San Jose to interview for a new job, you can be reasonably confident you’ll arrive on time, according to the federal Bureau of Transportation. The agency said Mineta San Jose Airport was No. 1 for on-time performance in California. (SFO was at the bottom of the list.)

Of course, that job will need to be high-paying if you hope to buy a home. This month the National Association of Home Builders said San Jose had the eighth-least affordable market for home buyers in the country. San Jose also had the nation’s fifth-highest increase in home prices between the third quarters of 2011 and 2012, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The picture is even bleaker in San Francisco, which the NAHB ranked as the second-least affordable market.

And even if you can afford to buy a home in the Bay Area, you’ll need to take extra care when driving to meet with your real estate agent. San Francisco drivers are among the country’s worst, according to Allstate.

But if anyone can solve a city’s problems, it’s Bay Area residents. After all, the Bay Area is the fifth-smartest municipal region in the country, according to the online cognitive training company Lumosity. Maybe it’s something in the air; the air purifier manufacturer Kaz put the Bay Area at No. 15 on its list of regions with the cleanest air in the U.S. And it’s a little easier for Bay Area residents to help keep that air clean by driving electric cars. That’s because the region ranked No. 4 when it comes to electric vehicle charging stations per person on a list compiled by Xatori, a startup that builds software for connected cars.

So the Bay Area had a lot to be proud of in 2012. And local residents weren’t afraid to talk about what makes the region great, according to the dating site WhatsYourPrice.com.

WhatsYourPrice.com surveyed 2,000 members from San Francisco to reveal whether the city landed on the “naughty” or “nice” list this year. 31% percent of San Francisco admitted to being guilty of “Pride” more than 5 times a week.

That earned San Francisco the No. 9 spot on the site’s most sinful cities list.

Article source: http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2012/12/21/what-made-the-bay-area-no-1-in-2012/

Sounding the Waters: Is the Bay Area Prepared for Sea Level Rise?

A new documentary attempts to find the answer

Sea level rise will irrevocably change life near the San Francisco Bay. That’s the premise of RISE: Climate Change and Coastal Communities, a documentary that starts airing this week on KQED Public Radio. Producer Claire Schoen sets the stage on a personal note.

Jan Sturmann

Climate scientists predict that sea level rise and extreme weather will cause flooding of San Francisco’s Financial District by 2050.

By Claire Schoen

“Mom, can you please can it with the climate change lecture  – just for once,” my children complained. At ages 22 and 26, my politically correct, Berkeley-raised kids are well educated in all things scientific and political. But… “Enough already,” they cry.

And I confess that their complaint has some validity: I can bring up the topic of climate change in pretty much any conversation.

But really, what other topic is there?

I do care deeply about war, immigration and famine. But all of these are affected by climate change which is a major cause of increasing drought, which in turn will create more and more wars to be fought over less and less arable land, pushing greater numbers of people to become environmental migrants the world over. This is not science fiction. And it is not the future. It is happening right now and it is being meticulously measured. The scariest part is that scientific estimates and predictions of the rate and intensity of climate change continue to be proven too low. It’s all happening bigger and faster than the models have shown. And it will get worse if we don’t radically slow our greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and figure out how to adapt to the impacts of climate change that are already too late to halt.

This past year has certainly been an eye-opener in the U.S., with a record-breaking number of record-breaking weather events:

• The Mississippi and Missouri Rivers both experienced catastrophic floods this year, affecting cities and towns along both waterways. There were evacuations in Memphis. The Corps of Engineers was forced to breach levees on the Mississippi, intentionally flooding one area in order to save a more populated one.
• Chicago has experienced two intense storms classified as 100-year events – in the last three years.
• 14 states are experiencing one of the worst droughts in U.S. history. The entire state of Texas which is now in its 6th year of exceptional drought, has been designated a natural disaster area.
• Tropical storms in Vermont devastated inland towns.

Since when is Vermont located in the tropics?

While no specific weather event can be attributed to climate change, the pattern of increasingly extreme weather is exactly what climate scientists are predicting.

So what does this mean for those of us living around the lovely San Francisco Bay?

We have relentlessly filled in the edges of the Bay – 40% of it – transforming wetlands into real estate and then covering them with homes, shopping malls and industrial parks. Climate change threatens this land, once considered a 100-year flood plain, with flooding every 10 years, every year, perhaps every high tide, as rising sea levels and extreme rain, wind and waves come together to form a perfect storm – again and again.

Upon embarking on the RISE project, my first act was to print out sections of a map of the Bay coastline, provided on the Pacific Institute website. It identifies those areas that are part of the 100 year flood zone. Pieced together, the map covers an entire wall of my studio. I quickly pinpointed my house. Whew – I’m safe.  But not really, as my bank, airport, highway, sewage system and the houses of many of my friends are situated in the flood zone. Truly we are all in this boat, together.

Will Travis, of the Bay Conservation and Development Commission provocatively suggests that what we need to build today are not houses, but campgrounds. Our stay at the edge of the rising tide is a temporary one. Yet, foolish animals that we are, we make big plans, instead, to develop entire new communities, the Redwood City Saltworks and Treasure Island, both sitting at sea level. Today’s sea level.

So, if not campgrounds, then what? The hard truth is that we don’t know what to do. But it’s time to come together to figure it out. To this end, I’m going to keep talking. Cause kids…it’s all about climate change.

Part 1 of RISE, entitled “Sounding the Waters,” airs on KQED 88.5 FM on Thursday, December 8, at 8 pm. Parts 2 and 3 air January 12 and February 9, respectively.

Article source: http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2011/12/08/sounding-the-waters-is-the-bay-area-prepared-for-sea-level-rise/

Real estate signs in front of homes for sale March 23, 2010 in San Francisco. Justin Sullivan/Getty

One out of every 140 housing units in the Vallejo-Fairfield metro area is facing foreclosure, according to the latest numbers from RealtyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for July 2011, making the North Bay region the fourth most-impacted in the country.  This is a 33 percent jump for the region since last month.

Statewide, the foreclosure activity rate is one out of every 239 housing units, marking a 4 percent increase for California since last month, but a 16 percent decrease compared with July 2010.

Nationally, the rate of foreclosure has decreased 4 percent since June and 35 percent since last year.

But RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist told KQED intern Nick Fountain that the decrease in foreclosure activity is not necessarily as good as it seems.

“We have to say that there’s no marked improvement in the economy or the jobs market or the housing market that is causing this improvement in the foreclosure picture,” he said.

Blomquist said the national decline, which has been going on for 10 months, is primarily due to a slow down in processing of foreclosures as a result of of the “havoc” created last October when lenders “got into hot water using slopping paperwork and documentation.”

“So, at this point, the decline is more of a short-term fix,” he said.

Locally, San Francisco County showed a 39 percent increase in foreclosure activity since June, which Blomquist attributed to a jump in bank repossessions. Similarly, activity this month in Contra Costa County increased 17 percent and Alameda County 15 percent.

But several regions outside the Bay Area are faring far worse. While the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro area ranks 28th nationally in foreclosure rates and Vallejo-Fairfield ranks fourth, the Stockton area ranks second. There, foreclosure activity increased 57 percent from June to July, to a rate of one in every 124 homes.

Check out the chart below, created by Fountain and online producer Lisa Pickoff-White, to see how some California counties fare in the new report.

For more on the Bay Area housing market, listen to Wednesday’s Forum program.

Article source: http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2011/08/11/new-foreclosure-numbers-vallejo-fairfield-fourth-highest-in-the-nation/