“We are experiencing the same as others who have reported, decent spring followed by a poor summer,” said Stephen Paul of Mid-Atlantic Builders. “Through June, sales were up 16 percent then dropped off the table in July and August.”

Home builder confidence stalled nationally in September, after rising steadily, especially at the beginning of 2013.

“While builder confidence is holding at the highest level in nearly eight years, many are reporting some hesitancy on the part of buyers due to the sharp increase in interest rates,” said Rick Judson, the National Association of Home Builders’ chairman.

If interest rates retreat to where they were at the beginning of the year, mortgage refinances will likely rebound again, especially since they have dropped so dramatically in the past six months.

As for home sales, that is not an easy call. Sales have been hampered not just by rising mortgage rates, but by very low inventory, anemic construction, and still-pervasive negative equity among potential move-up buyers. Lackluster job and wage growth, especially among younger Americans, has not helped either.

(Read more: Tepper: Fed wants growth first, second, and third)

We also know that while the Federal Reserve may not be tapering now, it will have to eventually. Some say it should do so sooner rather than later.

“Rip this Band-Aid off already,” said Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group. “There will never be the right time to cut back, and today was the perfect opportunity to do so because the market was ready for it. Playing games now over this with the market will not smooth the eventual ease.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101043610

(Read more: What you need to know if Fannie and Freddie go)

“Consumers have taken the interest rate rise in stride. Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track from its dip last month,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “These results are consistent with our own analysis of previous housing cycles, which finds that interest rates and home prices are not strongly correlated.”

(Read more: Taking your calls now: Obama sells housing agenda via Zillow)

Another survey from home builder PulteGroup found 43 percent of move-up buyers indicating they are planning to buy a new home within the next five years, with 76 percent saying they believe they can sell their current home within the next two years for enough to move up. Pulte targets the move-up buyer.

Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home rose 14 percent month to month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, but new home buyers may be less sensitive to rates, as builders can buy down mortgage rates as part of the deal.

It all prompts the question: With rates still historically low, does a 1 percentage point jump in rates really matter?

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100952350

It is likely no coincidence that standards are easing as rates rise and mortgage applications fall. Total mortgage applications were down 47 percent last week from a year ago. Refinances, which had been the banks bread and butter during the housing crash, are down 59 percent from a year ago. Applications to purchase a home are up just 5 percent.

“People see interest rates rise, they slow down some of that eagerness to get into the market,” said David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

Credit standards tightened dramatically over the past several years, as loose credit was largely blamed for the crash in housing. Average borrower credit scores on new loans are dramatically higher today, and lenders require larger down payments.

Even the FHA, the government mortgage insurer, which was created to help lower creditworthy borrowers, has raised its standards as well as its insurance premiums. Many lenders have overlays to their guidelines that they add on top of standard conventional guidelines. They could do that because refinances were so high, they needed to slow the volume in order to process all the loans.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100939328

“Buyers buy based upon payment, and those payments are still highly affordable relative to their incomes,” he said. “Even with 100 basis point swing, there’s still plenty of room in that [affordability] index.”

The concern, however, has been that as mortgage rates rise, home prices would necessarily fall, as buyers lose purchasing power. That may not be the case, according to a new analysis.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

“History shows that a rapid rise in interest rates tends to have little correlation with home prices. Rather, rising rates are more likely to contribute to a decrease in home purchase volume and an increase in the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages,” wrote Mark Palim in a Fannie Mae commentary.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100890224

“Buyers buy based upon payment, and those payments are still highly affordable relative to their incomes,” he said. “Even with 100 basis point swing, there’s still plenty of room in that [affordability] index.”

The concern, however, has been that as mortgage rates rise, home prices would necessarily fall, as buyers lose purchasing power. That may not be the case, according to a new analysis.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

“History shows that a rapid rise in interest rates tends to have little correlation with home prices. Rather, rising rates are more likely to contribute to a decrease in home purchase volume and an increase in the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages,” wrote Mark Palim in a Fannie Mae commentary.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100890224

Mortgage applications to purchase a home are rising for two reasons: Buyer demand is increasing, and those buyers are afraid rates will go up dramatically, so they want to lock in fast.

(Read More: Depression Begone! Home Prices Set Record in April)

Alicia and Ryan Diederichs say they are in a race against time. A job transfer recently sent them and their three young children to Oceanside, Calif. Now crammed into a small rental apartment, they are hoping to buy a house quickly.

“I’m afraid we’re going to miss the boat,” said Alicia Diederichs. “I feel like we might get priced out of the market in a few months, and just depending on the mortgage payment whether we could afford it if the interest rates go up more.”

The Diederichs need a large house to fit their family, but home prices are rising fast on the California coast, and they have not yet locked in a mortgage rate.

“Ideally we would do a 30-year fixed, but it’s all going to be dependent on the end mortgage payment, what we can afford, so we would have to look at an ARM potentially if rates continue to rise,” she said.

(Read More: Mortgage Cop: Four Top Banks Fail Consumers)

The combination of sharply higher home prices and rising rates is squeezing buyers who are already facing tighter underwriting standards. In order to qualify for loans, they must fit into strict debt-to-income calculations, and those calculations change with every increase in mortgage rates.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100845777

Based on the change in mortgage rates from early May to today, the average buyer would have to pay 13 percent more in monthly payments, including taxes and insurance, according to Mark Hanson, a California-based analyst. They also have to earn 10 percent more in income to qualify for a loan based on a typical qualifying debt-to-income ratio of 45 percent.

“These are huge moves especially considering—when purchasing a house using a mortgage—most people buy based on ‘monthly payment and the maximum allowable debt-to-income ratio.’ This means first-timer share will fall even further. They are already at a multiyear low even with record-low rates,” said Hanson.

(Read More: As Prices Rise, Banks Repossess More Homes)

First-time homebuyer participation was at just 29 percent, according to the Realtors, a five-year low. Without these buyers, as investors pull back and prices rise, home sales will likely lose steam. June’s report on pending home sales, or signed contracts in May, will tell just how much rising rates are impacting sales. That report will be released Thursday, June 27.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100831431

SUNNYVALE (KCBS)— New townhome projects continue at a rapid pace in Sunnyvale, where home construction can barely keep up with demand. The 14 currently under construction probably won’t be empty for long. Home values increased nearly 11-percent nationwide over the last year, but homes in the Bay Area are getting even greater gains.

The Standard Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday showed that all 20 cities measured by the report posted year-over-year gains for the third straight month.

And prices rose in 15 cities in March from February. That’s up from only 11 in the previous month. The monthly figures aren’t seasonally adjusted and may reflect the beginning of the spring buying season.

• Latest Case-Shiller Survey Results
• DataQuick’s Median Bay Area House Price By County

Prices rose in Phoenix by 22.5 percent over the past 12 months, the biggest gain among cities. It was followed by the Bay Area (22.2 percent) and Las Vegas (20.6 percent).

Niccole Beckerman said her family has been priced out of the Silicon Valley.

“It’s really expensive. My parents were trying to buy a house and it’s really expensive just because the schools are really good,” Beckerman said.

The story is the same throughout much of the Bay Area. According to the San Francisco Association Of Realtors, the median Bay Area price for a single-family home has crossed above the $1 million mark for the first time since 2007.

The Inventory of available homes remains extremely low according to San Jose realtor David Martz. He said there are only about 1,000 homes for sale in a population of nearly two-million people in the greater San Jose area.

“Combined with the fact that we currently have interest rates at an all-time low, it’s possible to get an interest rate close to three percent, which is driving demand, so the buyers are out there in force,” said Martz.

Martz said four out of every five homes that come on the market here receive multiple offers, with prices, in some cases, going up hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking.

Despite the gains, a limited number of homeowners are putting their houses on the market. That’s helped lift home prices. And it’s made builders more willing to ramp up construction. Applications for building permits rose in April to the highest level in nearly five years.

The supply of available homes jumped in April, but was still 14 percent below its level a year earlier.

Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow, a real estate data provider, said that the increase in the Case-Shiller index has been skewed higher by cities such as Phoenix and San Francisco. Fewer homes are available in those areas because many homeowners still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. That makes it difficult to sell.

Still, even excluding those markets, home prices are rising steadily nationwide, Humphries said. The increases are “certainly confirmation that the housing market is experiencing a brisk recovery,” he added.

The housing recovery is creating more construction jobs and bolstering the economy in other ways. Higher home prices make homeowners feel wealthier and encourages them to spend more.

Rising prices also encourage more would-be buyers to purchase homes, before prices rise further. They also enable more homeowners to sell homes, by reducing the number of people who owe more on their mortgages than the homes are worth.

Prices have been increasing steadily since last summer. Still, they are about 29 percent below the peak reached in July 2006.

Banks have raised their credit standards since the housing bubble burst and are demanding larger down payments. That’s made it particularly hard for potential first-time buyers to get a mortgage.

(Copyright 2013 by CBS San Francisco. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)

Article source: http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2013/05/28/builders-cant-keep-pace-with-demand-as-bay-area-housing-booms-again/

(Read More: Homes Selling at Fastest Pace Since Boom)

“It has the look of a runaway housing boom again,” said Jane Fairweather, a Realtor in Maryland, who added that looks can be deceiving. “What you have is very inexpensive money and you have very few houses for sale. As soon as interest rates go up, I think you’ll see a lot of people back off.”

Interest rates have been moving steadily higher. After Wednesday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, rates took another jump of 0.375 percentage points.

“It’s an over-correction, but a painful one for buyers,” said Dan Green of Waterstone Mortgage. “A home buyer has five percent less home purchasing power as compared to 24 hours ago.

In the end, sales will come down to buyer confidence, affordability and mortgage rates. Even if that last one moves higher, rates are still historically low and confidence is gaining steam despite the rising prices.

“This week I had a seller who got a full price offer in about four days and he refused to take it because he wanted multiple contracts, come on!” exclaimed Fairweather.

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100761763

(Read More: US Home Sales Rise to Highest Level in More Than 3 Years)

First time home buyers are already dropping out of the market, representing just twenty-nine percent of home buyers in April, according to the NAR—the lowest in two years. Rising mortgage rates, now at their highest in two months, are playing a part, but there are also fewer low-end homes to buy. The number of homes in the foreclosure process is now down nearly twenty-five percent from a year ago, according to a new report from Lender Processing Services.

Just eighteen percent of home sales in April were of distressed properties, the lowest since the Realtors began tracking this number in 2008. Compare that to thirty-five percent about a year and a half ago. Sales of homes priced below $100,000 were down ten percent in April compared to a year ago, while every other price range saw sales gains. Those who can get credit are now competing for what little there is to buy, and pushing prices well beyond expectations.

(Read More: Mortgage Applications Sink as Interest Rates Jump)

“I don’t see it lasting,” added Fairweather. “I think the minute they increase interest rates, you’ll see people pull back.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100758136