homesmillbrae.com » Industry Survey

After Brisk Summer, Pending Home Sales Drop in August

Fri, 28 Sep 2012 06:01:36 +0000

Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy existing homes in August. After gains in home sales over the spring and summer, an industry survey surprised expectations, registering a 2.6 percent drop in pending home sales from July. This drop forecasts that final closings on existing homes will be lower heading into fall.

“The performance in month-to-month contract signings has been uneven with ongoing shortages of lower priced inventory in much of the country, and across most price ranges in the West, but activity has remained at notably higher levels this year,” wrote National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun in a release.

Yun pointed out that contract signings have been up year-over-year for sixteen consecutive months, which indicates overall home sales will be higher in 2012 than 2011. The Realtors predict a 9 percent gain to 4.64 million units.

Regionally, pending home sales rose slightly in the Northeast, up 0.9 percent month-to-month, but fell 2.6 percent in the Midwest, 1.1 percent in the South, and really plummeted out West, down 7.2 percent.

The drop in the West is largely due to a supply issue on the low end of the market. Investors have been fueling the low end with all-cash, bulk purchases of foreclosures in markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and parts of Southern California. Supplies of those homes have dropped dramatically, leaving little for those investors to buy.

Some housing analysts are concerned that the housing recovery so far has been driven so much by all-cash investors that as these supplies dwindle, due to continuing bank delays and more loan modifications, the overall home sales numbers will drop going into the end of the year.

New home sales for August also disappointed, coming in lower than expected. New home sales are measured by signed contracts, rather than closings.

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Commercial Real Estate Firms

—CBRE
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—Jones Lang LaSalle
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—Grubb and Ellis
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US-Based REITS

—Host Hotels Resorts
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—Simon Property Group
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—Equity Residential
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—Apartment Investment Management Co
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—Vornado Realty Trust
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—Boston Properties
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—FelCor Lodging Trust
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—Avalonbay Communities
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—American Capital Agency Corp
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—UDR, Inc
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—Camden Property Trust
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US Home Builders

—Toll Brothers
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—DR Horton
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—Hovnanian Enterprises
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—PulteGroup
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—Ryland Group
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—Lennar Corp
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—Beazer Homes USA
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—Meritage Homes
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—KB Home
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Construction General Building Materials

—The Home Depot
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—Lowe’s Companies
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—The Sherwin-WIlliams Company
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—E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company
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—Apogee Enterprises
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Questions? Comments? And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49193922?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Home Builders Bullish for Fifth Straight Month

Wed, 19 Sep 2012 05:29:43 +0000

The nation’s once-beleaguered home builders are more confident than they have been in six years.

A surge in new orders for homes, especially among the big public builders, pushed builder sentiment on an industry survey up three points to the highest level since June of 2006.

The National Association of Home Builders confidence survey now stands at 40, although 50 is still the line between positive and negative. This is a vast improvement from where it was just one year ago: 14.

“Builders across the country are expressing a more positive,” notes NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe in a release. “However, against the improving demand for new homes, concerns are now rising about the lack of building lots in certain markets and the rising cost of building materials. Given the fragile nature of the housing and economic recovery, these are significant red flags.”

Builders also cite tight credit conditions for builders and buyers as another barrier to a stronger recovery. Still, the builders say they see improvements in current sales conditions, buyer traffic, and future sales expectations, with the last one rising above 50 into the positive territory. (Watch: US Housing Most Affordable in Years – Pro)

This sentiment appears to be widespread.

Confidence rose in every region of the country with the highest monthly gains in the West and Midwest where there are the largest volumes of new construction.

This confidence mirrors investor confidence in the stocks of the public builders, which are now at their highest levels since 2007. (Watch: Home Builders Are on Fire)

Even before this index was released, Goldman Sachs Group
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] Tuesday reiterated its optimism in the sector, citing, “a long list of positives” including the recent announcement from the Federal Reserve that it would purchase billions of dollars’ worth of agency mortgage backed securities, as well as rising home prices and low inventories. Goldman’s top picks are MDC Homes
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Questions? Comments? And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49071658?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS