“Mortgage rates have increased more than 100 basis points since early May, and we anticipate that trend to continue, albeit gradually, during the next year,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a report Tuesday. He also expects economic growth to slow from the, “surprising” pace seen last quarter.

Regionally, home builder confidence increased the most in the Midwest and West and more moderately in the Northeast and South. Housing starts and building permit numbers for August will be released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101040159

Mortgage applications had been lower for much of the summer, and refinances continue to fall, but applications to purchase a home rose 2 percent last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

This, even as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $417,000 or less increased to 4.8 percent, the highest since April 2011. They are still down 6 percent in the past month. Mortgage rates, however, have been moving lower this week on weak economic data.

Higher home prices could also be hurting potential sales, as very low inventories continue to cause bidding wars from coast to coast. Inventories of existing homes are down significantly in most of the nation’s major housing markets.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

San Francisco, for example is seeing some of the highest home price appreciation, as listings were down 29 percent in July year over year, according to the California Association of Realtors.

“More homes clearly need to be built in the West to relieve price pressure, or the region could soon face pronounced affordability problems,” Yun said.

Single family housing starts were down 2.2 percent in July month to month, as home builders still struggle to find finished lots and skilled labor. Underlying demand is running nearly twice the rate of housing completions, according to IHS Global Insight. Some home builders admit they are slowing production in order to gain pricing power.

(Read more: Home prices across the US defy gravity)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100993579

All three components of the index rose in July. Current sales conditions rose five points to 60—the highest level since early 2006. The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months gained seven points to 67, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose five points to 45—marking the strongest readings for each since late 2005.

“Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Meanwhile, as the infrastructure that supplies home building returns, some previously skyrocketing building material costs have begun to soften.”Sales of newly built homes rose just over 2 percent from May to June. Single family housing starts were flat. But permits, considered a more reliable indicator, gained 1.3 percent month-to-month.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100889688

“Rising interest rates and increasing cost of new supply will help keep that supply down and will allow us to continue to increase rates on our existing residents,” says Neithercut.

A subset of multi-family, the lesser-watched student housing sector, could also benefit, specifically the largest, American Campus Communities (ACC). Since it has so little competition, it benefits from a cheaper cost of capital.

(Read More: Map: Tracking the US Real Estate Recovery)

“We actually have a very favorable comparison in terms of yields. The development transactions that we’re undertaking typically are 7 to 7.25 yield, a nice spread to multi-family, so we tend to have more cushion in that regard,” says Bill Bayless, CEO of American Campus.

For the overall REIT space, however, analysts are questioning whether this is a long term cyclical change tied to improving gross domestic product. If so, sectors with shorter-term leases, like multi-family, self-storage and health care may fare better than office or industrial, which have longer-term leases.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100793087

While prices continue to improve, there are still headwinds, specifically a relatively weak employment picture and a tight mortgage market. Existing home sales are also recovering far faster than new home sales, and much of the gains in new home construction is in multi-family apartments, as single family housing starts lag.

(Read More: Record High New Home Prices to Grow)

“Housing is making a positive impact on the economy, if one goes through the GDP numbers, residential construction is adding to economic growth,” said Blitzer. “But when you look at this, buying and selling existing homes, is recognized, we all feel good, the prices are going up, it doesn’t add anything to GDP.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook at facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100769361

(Read More: Apartment Building Bubbles as Single-Family Homes Struggles)

Zelman noted an intentional slowing by home builders, who are strapped by labor and supply shortages and who are looking to gain pricing power as the market recovers, as a key driver of apartment demand.

Rising rents are pushing some tenants to move, but not as many as expected. 11.5 percent of departing residents in April left due to rent increases, according to the report, up from 10.9 percent in 2012 but way down from 17 percent in 2011. In addition, more than half of those moving out remained in the apartment rental market. Thirty percent bought a home, and ten percent rented a single family home; the remaining moved in with family or friends.

The concern for investors in the apartment sector, especially in multi-family REITs (real estate investment trusts), is that there is too much new supply coming on line, just as demand is about to turn. The government numbers for housing starts in April added confusion to that argument, but some say the monthly numbers, especially for new construction, which have a wide margin of error, are just “noise.”

(Read More: Rising Rates Rattle Mortgage Market)

“Multi-family starts plunged 38.9 percent to 23,000 units, but the more important average of March and April was still a solid 321,000 units,” noted Michael Montgomery, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746253

Inventories are tightest on the low end of the market, where investors came in and bought most of the distressed properties and are now holding them as single-family rentals. There is about a four-month supply of homes priced under $100,000, while there is around a twelve-month supply of homes priced over $500,000. That’s why sales of those low-end homes are down 16 percent from a year ago, and sales of higher-end homes are up 25 percent, according to the Realtors.

(Read More: Housing’s Big Challenge: Student Debt)

“The housing shortage is going to continue,” claimed Yun, who says the builders need to ramp up housing starts by 50 percent. He admits that is unlikely to happen due to land, labor and supply constraints.

Weak supplies are pushing home prices up far faster than wage growth, which is keeping first-time buyers especially on the sidelines. These buyers made up just 30 percent of the market in March, compared to the historical norm of 40-45 percent. They just can’t compete with all cash investors.

(Read More: Why Housing Affordability Is at Risk)

But if prices get too high, investors could leave the market. Their share was already down in March to 19 percent compared to 22 percent just one month ago. The danger is that they will start to unload the homes they own, which would bring much-needed supply back but which could also turn home prices in the other direction.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100660999

Sales of newly built homes fell nearly five percent in February, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Inventories did rise, but only slightly, as the nation’s home builders struggle with labor and land shortages, as well as higher costs for materials.

(Read More: Finally: Supply of Homes for Sale Begins to Rise)

Pending home sales fell 2.5 percent month-to-month in the Northeast, rose 0.4 percent in the Midwest, fell 0.3 percent in the South and rose 0.1 percent in the West, according to the Realtors.

“The volume of home sales appears to be leveling off with the constrained inventory conditions, and the leveling of the index means little change is likely in the pace of sales over the next couple months,” Yun added.

(Read More: Map: Tracking the USReal Estate Recovery)

A better sign for March, after two weeks of declines, mortgage applications to purchase a home jumped 7 percent during the past week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This as interest rates fell slightly, due to concerns over the banking crisis in Cyprus.

“The rebound in mortgage applications is a small piece of a brighter housing outlook,” says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. “Interest rates are still at record lows despite their upward trend, and consumers are taking advantage of record home affordability. Look for more buyers to enter the market this spring and a more robust housing recovery to occur.”

(Read More: Compare Mortgage Rates in Your Area)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100596583

Sales of newly built homes fell nearly five percent in February, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Inventories did rise, but only slightly, as the nation’s home builders struggle with labor and land shortages, as well as higher costs for materials.

(Read More: Finally: Supply of Homes for Sale Begins to Rise)

Pending home sales fell 2.5 percent month-to-month in the Northeast, rose 0.4 percent in the Midwest, fell 0.3 percent in the South and rose 0.1 percent in the West, according to the Realtors.

“The volume of home sales appears to be leveling off with the constrained inventory conditions, and the leveling of the index means little change is likely in the pace of sales over the next couple months,” Yun added.

(Read More: Map: Tracking the USReal Estate Recovery)

A better sign for March, after two weeks of declines, mortgage applications to purchase a home jumped 7 percent during the past week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This as interest rates fell slightly, due to concerns over the banking crisis in Cyprus.

“The rebound in mortgage applications is a small piece of a brighter housing outlook,” says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. “Interest rates are still at record lows despite their upward trend, and consumers are taking advantage of record home affordability. Look for more buyers to enter the market this spring and a more robust housing recovery to occur.”

(Read More: Compare Mortgage Rates in Your Area)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100596583

Housing starts are up 24 percent from a year ago, but residential construction employment is up only 3.1 percent, according to the U.S. Commerce and Labor Departments. Former construction workers headed to higher paying jobs, such as the trucking industry. Some in the Southwest headed north to the newly thriving energy sector, said Marquis Jackson. Others headed to highway construction jobs in Texas.

(Read More: Job Creation Surges as Rate Falls to 7.7%)

In Las Vegas, where Pardee Homes is building 150 percent more homes this year than they did last year, finding workers is increasingly difficult.

“We lost quite a bit of labor to the oil fields and to places like Wyoming and North Dakota, where you would not expect it to go,” noted Klif Andrews, Pardee’s Las Vegas president.

Andrews said he is paying workers five to ten percent more now, and that has pushed his home prices higher. “We’ve raised median home prices up over 15 percent, so we’ve been able to stay a little bit ahead of it, but cost increases, it’s not just labor, it’s also materials,” he added.

Nationwide, the median price for newly built homes rose 2 percent in January and new home prices now far exceed the median price for existing homes.

(Read More: Housing: Picking Up the Pieces)

Another factor is weighing on workers. Contractors, who hire the specialty workers for builders, are small businessmen themselves. In order to fund their operations, they need to hire people to have ready, and that takes capital. Unfortunately, despite the housing recovery, banks are still not lending freely to builders. Builders are trying to find ways around that, by paying subcontractors more frequently, essentially bankrolling them so they can hire more workers.

“The wheels are starting to work, but all the gears are not working in alignment,” said Marquis Jackson.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100537494