• Justin Sullivan/Getty Images file photo
• Real estate in San Francisco and around the Bay Area is poised for an upswing, much like the trend before the recession hit.

In the half-decade before California was clobbered by its worst recession since the Great Depression, taxable property values — those of land, homes, apartments and commercial buildings — exploded.

Between 2003 and 2009, values increased by a whopping two-thirds, from $2.7 trillion to $4.5 trillion, much from new construction, and local governments enjoyed a nearly $20 billion increase in annual revenue from the boom.

We all know what happened next: The real estate market went into a tailspin. Local governments that had banked, literally, on ever-increasing revenues felt the pinch. It contributed heavily to two cities’ bankruptcies.

Actually, taxable values didn’t go into the tank.

They just stopped growing and shrank a little, falling to $4.3 trillion in 2011. And as the state’s economy began to improve, so did property values, rising slightly in 2012.

This year, they are poised to register a sharp gain, based on reports from local assessors that are being compiled by the state Board of Equalization.

Gov. Jerry Brown’s 2013-14 budget assumes a 2.8 percent increase, but it’s more likely to be in the 4 to 5 percent range.

Los Angeles County, which has a quarter of the state’s taxable property, is up 4.66 percent, and in some of the counties experiencing economic booms, such as those in the Bay Area, the gains are higher. They’re up 6 percent in San Mateo County, for example, and 5.17 percent in Alameda County.

Each percentage point of property value increase generates about a $500 million in additional revenue statewide, so overall, the increase could be well over $2 billion for local coffers and, indirectly, for the state treasury.

Under the state constitution, schools are guaranteed certain amounts of revenue, with the first increment coming from property taxes and the state providing the remainder. Thus any unanticipated increase in local property values and taxes decreases what the state must pay schools.

It’s not another property bubble, at least not yet, but with the housing construction industry beginning to pick up again, California could see strong growth in property taxes in the years ahead. The state is also seeing a surge in sales and income taxes, $2 billion over estimates already this year.

These revenue jumps, however, create another challenge for state and local politicians, who have overspent previous windfalls, leading to huge budget deficits and, as mentioned earlier, the bankruptcies of two cities.

Those who want more spending, whether it’s for government services or public employees’ salaries, will be pressing politicians hard.

Brown has said he wants to resist that pressure and redirect any windfalls into debt reduction and reserves.

But as the money piles up, the pressure will grow.

Dan Walters covers state politics for the Sacramento Bee.

Article source: http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/california-property-values-poised-to-soar/Content?oid=2535210

A real estate agent tours a home for sale during an open house in San Francisco. According to real esate agents, in the current market environment, not having inside knowledge will prevent people from getting the house they desire. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Century 21 Realty Alliance president and broker Orhan Tolu shares what he knows to help buyers and sellers navigate the Bay Area’s strong and growing real estate market. The company had the biggest market share growth last year—357 percent—in the entire state of California when Century 21 Realty Alliance made its move into San Francisco, completing 850 transactions in their first year, with roughly 11 agents.

The Commercial Window

“This is the year to buy,” says Tolu.

If you have the capital, commercial properties are what you want to invest in, especially in San Francisco, Tolu says. In the current economy, it costs twice as much if you want to build a new building than what you can buy one for, and commercial property values are still comparatively low compared to housing. You might be able to buy a building for $200 per square foot, but it would cost about $400 per square foot to build that building today—and land is getting increasingly scarce.

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“Commercial is always the last sector in the real estate market to fall, and is the last one to pick up,” says Tolu, who has 15 years of experience in selling commercial real estate. “So it always happens in that cycle.”

“Right now there’s still a lot of vacancy in office space, there’s a lot of vacancy in retail,” Tolu said. “Commercial went up, rent went up, and there is a shortage of listings in apartments, too. But it’s not as bad as houses.”

“On the office or retail sector, I think it’s going to take another two years for the market to fully heal and become as good as residential in the state,” Tolu said.

In the next four to five years, Silicon Valley’s expansion will continue, and the real estate market is just growing. Analysts say the market has still not returned to normal levels, making this a good time to jump on a property if one is looking to invest.

“Real estate is maybe going to appreciate 30 to 40 percent in the next two years,” Tolu said, compared to banks or investment in stocks. “So if you add the appreciation plus net income return, it’s going to be more than 20 percent increase in a five-year time period, so there’s nothing better than a commercial real estate investment in the world, nothing better.”

Compared to other real estate sectors, “maybe you pay a little bit too much compared to the other areas, your net cap is less, but your appreciation is always much, much higher,” Tolu said.

Overseas investors may not be familiar with the market or the nuances of the way sales are made in each city. With the purchases of commercial property, there’s a big difference from housing, Tolu says. With residential real estate, buyers can look in newspapers, magazines, or search online, but commercial listings are less frequent.

Tolu says that in Silicon Valley, there are about 15 realtors who specialize in commercial real estate, and 50 to 60 in the Bay Area. In most transactions, the realtors can just make a few calls among themselves and sell the property without listing it on the market. If you want to invest in commercial real estate, be sure to find a local professional commercial real estate agent, he suggests.

International Buyers

Foreign buyers will be at a disadvantage if they search overseas. It’s necessary to be in the United States in order to even start the search, go to showings, and buy a house with the limited time buyers have to bid on properties. For international buyers, working with a company that has a large global network can greatly help facilitate the process and improve your chances of getting that house.

Just recently, Tolu said, a Century 21 real estate broker from London gave him a call—two people from London wanted to purchase a property in San Jose.

“She already did the search for me, she already did everything for me,” Tolu said. “All I have to do is send one agent to go show [the property], to take care of them.”

Many buyers in the Bay Area may be looking for something that requires specialized knowledge—condominiums, for example, are different from houses, and it’s best to choose an agent with that specialization. Properties are often sold within a week of listing, and some buyers get hasty after not being able to get a property after a certain amount of time, leading to bad decisions.

Use a Better Network

It’s crucial to have the most updated information while doing your search—lest you start to prepare to bid for a property that’s already sold. There are many popular online listing sites, like Trulia, but how up to date are they?

Listing information is released within 24 hours on Century 21’s website, Tolu says, but many other real estate sites take their listings from Century 21’s listing generator, and often aren’t updated until 72 hours after it’s available. There are even houses that are sold the next day, which the agents would know, but websites might not show.

Experience Is Key

In the current market environment, not having inside knowledge will prevent you from getting that house. Many buyers lose three or four properties before they start looking for help.

“[There’s] a huge shortage of listings. I’ve never seen a shortage like this in the last 50 years,” Tolu said. “And if you look at the data, the listing comes in today, and tomorrow it’s gone already.”

Sellers barely need to advertise, Tolu says. “You just put it in the Internet and somebody will buy it with a high price anyway. Why spend money for advertisement?”

A good broker will know the ins and outs of the neighborhoods you’re interested in, and be able to help you navigate the market, where prices are rising daily. “Rely on your broker, because your broker and your agent have much more updated information than the Internet.”

Pricing isn’t a sure thing in this market, and buyers who caution to bid 10 percent above asking price might end up with a house only months later, when asking prices too have gone up 20 percent, according to Tolu.

“If a house comes along and you don’t get the right advice, you’re going to lose that house anyway,” Tolu said. “Each time you lose, the price is going to keep going up and up. Rather than waiting six months and having the price go up, work with an experienced agent and you’ll buy it at your first look.”

Expand Your Options

Most buyers make the mistake of starting with an area they like and then look at what houses are there, Tolu said. It’s a common mistake.

If you only consider buying a house in a particular neighborhood or city, your choices are very limited, and if there are no listings, you’re stuck. Broaden your search to nearby areas, Tolu suggests, and look at their school districts as well. Then work with an experienced agent and bid right the first time.

School Districts

If you delay or don’t get the right information and haven’t gotten the house in the school district you want come September, it might affect your children’s education.

“If you do it at the right time, then your kids will go to the better schools—good schools,” Tolu said. “Otherwise in September when the schools open, if you still don’t have a property, you don’t have a good location or a good school for your kids.”

If you buy a house in a better school district, you won’t have to spend money on private schools, which can be at least $20,000 to $30,000, and very time-consuming to drive to and from, Tolu said.

Additional reporting by David Zhang

The Epoch Times publishes in 35 countries and in 21 languages. Subscribe to our e-newsletter.

Article source: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/business/navigating-the-bay-area-real-estate-market-370116.html

Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

“We did have a brief window of opportunity—or now it seems brief, it actually lasted quite awhile—during the housing downturn where we had, for the first time in years something approaching reasonable affordability in the Bay Area,” said Carolyn Said, economics and real estate reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle, on KQED Public Radio’s Forum show. “First-time home buyers could find a home in the $300,000 price range. [That home wasn't] necessarily in San Francisco, but in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, and without even going way out to the outer edges of the counties.”

And homes prices in San Francisco dipped as well.

Affordability was “the highest we have seen in 25 years in 2010, early 2011,” said Rick Turley, president of Coldwell Banker for the San Francisco Bay Area.

This Golden Age of Affordability may have come to an end, at least for now. But here’s the good news: If you didn’t buy a home in the past few years, you only sort of missed the boat.

Low Interest Rates

An advantageous part of the affordability equation is still applicable in the form of historically low interest rates, according to Said. “[Rates] are still right around 3.5 percent, which is just amazing when you think of it,” she said.

“That’s a positive for people looking to buy a house. Their buying power is really more because their effective monthly payment is still going to be less, even if they’re paying a little more [for the property].”

In addition to low interest rates, there’s some other good news for would-be home buyers. The Federal Housing Administration still offers loans requiring relatively small down payments.

FHA Loans

“In order to have home ownership, you need to have a down payment, which people starting out in their careers often don’t have,” said Said. She said FHA loan are available with a “3.5 percent down payment if you have decent enough credit, and of course it helps to have a stable income.” A down payment of less than 20 percent requires the purchase of mortgage insurance, but even with that added cost, the low percentage required up front should make the initial plunge more affordable.

Micro-Markets

It’s also important to remember that the Bay Area is a diverse region, and with that diversity comes price range.

“We tend to roll things up as the ‘Bay Area’ in general, but we’re probably 30 micro-markets,” said Turley.

You may have missed your window of opportunity to own a house in San Francisco and Palo Alto proper, but there are still relatively affordable places in the Bay Area.

“More affordable neighborhoods are in Oakland, eastern Contra Costa County, and other parts of the East Bay, as well as in some San Jose neighborhoods,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia, an online real estate company.

These places might not have the cachet of the Marina district, but they still offer many of the benefits of living in the Bay Area: good weather,  a decent job market and proximity to outdoor recreation.

And even if you have to pay a bit more to enter the market, chances are you still will get a decent return on your investment.

Still Time to Make a Good Investment

“Historically, since World War II, housing has appreciated … maybe half a percent or a percent ahead of inflation,” said Said. “And that is normal for our country. If you look at [the value of your house] going up 3.5 percent a year over the next 20 years that’s still a substantial appreciation.”

True, that’s not a doubling in value that earlier California generations enjoyed. But Said said that “given what’s been happening in Silicon Valley, with the tremendous demand for housing and the tremendous amount of money that is out there for people working at high-tech companies, the housing in Silicon Valley is not following normal economic paths. It is fueled by all this tech money and from that perspective, it’s perfectly possible that your house will run way up there.”

Finding a Place in the Bay Area Was Never Easy

If you should find yourself put on the spot about why you didn’t jump while prices were lower, you can always blame a lack of credit.

“One of the reasons why people haven’t been able to take advantage of the relatively lower prices and low mortgage rates during the past couple of years is that mortgage credit has been very tight,” said Kolko. “Banks have been reluctant to lend to people who don’t have high credit scores.” The new mortgage rules announced Thursday might encourage banks to be more willing to lend to borrowers who meet income and credit guidelines, he said, so that credit could become easier for some people to obtain.

And remember, San Francisco is a world-class city. Affordability here is a relative term.

“It’s as if God wanted the Bay Area to be expensive,” said Kolko. Not only does the region’s relatively mild weather attract people, but because the region is “hemmed in by the ocean on one side, the bay and the mountains on the other, there’s very little available land to build. The Bay Area’s not like places in Texas or other parts of the South where you can spread out in all directions.”

And there are other limits on building…

“Regulations on building are particularly strict in the Bay Area,” said Kolko. “That makes it even more difficult to build new housing, both in the Bay Area and in much of California, and that adds to the high cost.”

So if you didn’t get around to buying a house when prices were low — take solace in the fact that prices weren’t ever that low.

Article source: http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2013/01/10/if-youre-in-the-market-for-a-home-in-the-bay-area-yes-you-missed-the-boat-sort-of/

Enlarge image

San Francisco Bay Area Home Prices Increase 8.3% in April

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Real estate agent Brad Smith, right, with potential home buyers in San Francisco.

Real estate agent Brad Smith, right, with potential home buyers in San Francisco. Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Home prices in the San Francisco Bay
area rose in April for the first annual gain in 19 months as
buyers acquired costlier properties, according to DataQuick.

The median paid for houses and condominiums was $390,000 in
the nine-county region, up 8.3 percent from $360,000 in April
2011 and 8.9 percent from $358,000 in March, the San Diego-based
data firm said in a statement. The year-over-year advance was
the first since September 2010.

The smallest share of foreclosure deals in four years and a
shift in sales toward move-up markets helped to boost values,
DataQuick President John Walsh said in the statement. Buyers are
seeking to take advantage of decreased prices and record-low
mortgage rates, according to the company.

“It appears the market is taking a step in the direction
of normalization, but only a step,” Walsh said. “The mortgage
market is critical, as is market mix and the receding importance
of foreclosure resales.”

A total of 7,675 homes sold last month, little changed from
March and up 13 percent from a year earlier. The tally, the
highest for April in six years, was still well below the monthly
average of 9,088 sales going back to 1988, DataQuick said.

Foreclosures accounted for 22 percent of sales, down from
28 percent a year earlier and the lowest since January 2008.
Homes priced at $500,000 or more made up 38 percent of all
sales, up from a 36 percent share in April 2011, DataQuick said.
Jumbo loans above the old conforming limit of $417,000 were used
in almost 36 percent of deals, up from 32 percent.

Median prices rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier to
$700,000 in San Francisco, and 9.3 percent to $513,500 in Santa
Clara County. The biggest price gain was in Contra Costa County,
up 12 percent to $288,750, according to DataQuick.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Dan Levy in San Francisco at
dlevy13@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Kara Wetzel at
kwetzel@bloomberg.net

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Article source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/san-francisco-bay-area-home-prices-increase-8-3-in-april.html

San Francisco Bay Area Home Sales Below Average

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Real estate agent Paul Barbagelata, left, talks with a client during an open house in San Francisco.

Real estate agent Paul Barbagelata, left, talks with a client during an open house in San Francisco. Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Home sales in the San Francisco Bay
Area were 22 percent below average last month as buyers waited
for better mortgage availability, DataQuick said today.

A total of 6,749 houses and condominiums sold in the nine-
county region, below the average of 8,644 property deals for
September since 1988, the San Diego-based data seller said in a
statement. Last month’s total was down 10 percent from August
and up 6.6 percent from a year earlier.

“Demand continues to accumulate,” DataQuick President
John Walsh said in the statement. “Empty-nesters want something
smaller, growing families want something bigger. People still
die, they get married, retire — all of this generates demand.
And only a fraction of that demand is being met in today’s
market.”

The number of transactions financed with adjustable-rate
loans, an indicator of mortgage availability, fell to 13 percent
in September from 16 percent in August, according to DataQuick.
Such loans were used in 45 percent of Bay Area sales over the
past decade. Jumbo mortgages, or those higher than $417,000,
were used in almost a third of all deals, little changed from
August and about half 2007’s tally.

The median home price in the Bay Area fell to $365,000,
down 1.4 percent from August and 7.6 percent from a year
earlier, DataQuick said. All nine counties had price declines
from a year earlier, led by a 13 percent decrease to $252,000 in
Contra Costa. Santa Clara fell 6 percent to $470,000 and San
Francisco fell 1 percent to $613,750.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Dan Levy in San Francisco at
dlevy13@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Kara Wetzel at
kwetzel@bloomberg.net

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Article source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-14/san-francisco-bay-area-home-sales-below-average-as-buyers-wait.html