You probably don’t think of unrest in the far away Middle East as having anything to do with the housing market here in the U.S. You should.

The weekly mortgage applications say it all.

Despite the rate on the 30-year fixed falling below the psychologically important 5 percent line, mortgage applications to purchase a new home and to refinance both dropped; yes, there was a holiday involved, but the four week moving average is also down, despite mortgage rates coming off their Egypt-unrest surge.

Remember, rates track yields on the 10-year Treasury, which have been volatile due to the unrest abroad, but not THAT volatile: Less than half a percentage point.

Rates are one thing, but uncertainty weighs heavier on potential buyers, and rising oil prices may outweigh both.

“It’s the spring season. This is where new home buyers come out looking to buy a home,” says FBR’s Paul Miller. “If gas prices have gone up significantly, it’s going to cut into the foot traffic, and we’re really concerned with what that’s going to do to housing market.”

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Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41868388?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS